BrooksBurner

The alternative is that they were being ultra cautious to skirt the cap, and it's not quite as serious as has been covered.

I don't think that's what he's saying. He understands 5v5 matters a lot, which is why he's picking a fight on the topic with ESPN/Wys/other analysts who work for legitimate professional hockey analytics companies contributed to that article. In addition to those professional companies, the free ones in Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Moneypuck, HockeyViz, are all in fairly close correlation with each other in where the Rangers rank in this regard. The data from all these sources is saying the same thing, but CSA, which Valley founded, has an apparently outlier difference of opinion? Lafreniere's 5v5 expected numbers were good, and his actual production lagged behind. The actual production has elevated to be closer to the expected. Just based on that info, without even watching games, anyone could have just told you he must be finishing the chances he wasn't previously. This is a great example of how expected goals can tell a story.

Fine. It's like playing poker then. You can errantly reduce it to one statistic. That's your prerogative. 5v5 across the board is not one statistic though even if you want it to be. 80+% of the game is played at 5v5. It kind of matters. A lot.

That is a big discrepancy. Naturalstattrick has the Rangers at 23rd in 5v5 xGF and 11th in All Strengths xGF. Valley has been posting all strengths expected goals charts after every game this year through his X account though, so I kind of wonder if that's what he was referring to. I don't expect the best accuracy from a free to use site like NST, but I find it pretty hard to believe (essentially, next to zero chance) it's that far off from what Valley is using if he was indeed talking about 5v5. Especially when the eye test consistently backs up that the Rangers get outplayed at 5v5.

The Rangers got obliterated at 5v5 in each series. Igor almost singlehandedly won them the Carolina series, and he almost did it against Tampa too.

If you win the lotto, it would not be salty to call it lucky. It’s just the truth. Every team requires luck, yes. The difference is the amount of luck required.

The Rangers will likely lose if the other team stays out of the box. They will get caved in at 5v5 by most of the other playoff teams. As usual, they will rely on special teams opportunities and goaltending. We’ve already seen the last two years that the approach is not a general model for success, but it can still result in some success (ECF under Gallant). The Rangers winning would be an anomaly, just like making the ECF that year was. It doesn’t mean they can’t win, but there’s no reason to make out their chances to be more than they are.

Gross If your sister was Sydney Sweeney do you think you could look past it? Jamie Lannister style

Imagine paying hundreds of dollars or even over a grand to go to a game with the family, just to see a tie though. Brutal

Since 2021, top 5 Rangers forwards in +/-: Zibanejad +68 Kreider +57 Panarin +41 Kakko +29 Trocheck +17 In that span, Zibanejad is 10th amongst forwards in the NHL in +/-, and Kreider is 14th. You can't attribute the results to "goaltending and teammates" when the disparity in goal differential is this large. This year, Kreider is +17 (1st on team amongst forwards, 27th in NHL) and Zibanejad is +13 (4th, 51st). Still 1st line goal diff for both, but a step back because Zibanejad isn't keeping up with the offensive output he's had the last few seasons, and that's unequivocally not a Kreider issue. Kreider is tied for the most ES points in his career this year. Any attempt to shade Kreider for Zibanejad's lack of offense is not based in reality or stats. "It's a 5v4 when Kreider is on the ice" is the funniest thing I've read in a Kreider-hate post in a while. The fact of the matter is, Kreider and Zibanejad help each other immensely in all 3 zones. Peanut butter and jelly baby. Just a little light on peanut butter (Zibanejad) this year.

Not that it makes a diff with respect to Dallas, but in general 3v3 ot and shootout “wins” aren’t legitimate hockey wins either. Don’t like the cheesy winner point just as much as I don’t like the loser point…but I also hate the concept of ties too lol

Refs missed 2 boarding calls within 15 seconds of each other. Amazing

I don't agree with most of this, but we'll be rooting for them to win all the same. The difference is simply I think they need a good bit more luck than you do. It's not that big a deal

Re-read the last thing I quoted again. It's not all bad. This thread was why the team is getting disrespected with coverage. Well, my two cents is I think it's a lot to do with a growing belief in a strong correlation of 5v5 analytics to Cup winners over the last 15 years. I said this months ago, that Washington was the only piss poor team at 5v5 to win a Cup and the Rangers would be in that category.This graphic from the article is pretty good depicting that: Opportunistic goal scoring (above average finishing), great special teams, great goaltending, good talent up top. Maybe it's enough, but ultimately the linkage between strong 5v5 play is almost a requirement to winning a Cup and they simply don't have it.

You wanted attention, here you go: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/39902929/nhl-new-york-rangers-playoffs-2024-stanley-cup-analytics-data It's a really good, honest write up. Here's some excerpts. Kelly certainly knows what he's talking about. You absolutely cannot write off any team with some of the talent, and opportunistic scoring/goaltending that the Rangers are capable of. With that said, they are clearly behind the 8 ball in their approach to the game, relying primarily on getting bounces and luck at the right time.

Most signs point to a paper tiger. I wish it weren't so. Perhaps the luck can carry on a little further than the ECF appearance 2 years ago though. That's what we have to hope for. People should be prepared for "the disrespect" of a lot of predictions coming in against the Rangers, from the growing list of hockey analysts/journalists who weigh analytics appropriately in conjunction with other things in their predictions.

The bullpen has actually been very good, as has the rotation. Relievers 2.59 ERA, 6th in league. Starters 2.78 ERA, 5th in league. I'm concerned about the rotation depth and quality as the season wears on though (as long as Cole is out, and I kind of think his injury is more serious than they let on and they are hoping for a bit of a miracle in avoiding the inevitable).

And Hal. He’s been the penny pincher, big George would roll over in his grave at some of the cheap miscues and decisions that have been made over the years!

It's nice to see some success early, but there's even more reason for optimism in upcoming years. Volpe is a stud. Domingues looked like a stud last year before his injury. Can't wait for him to be back.Two guys in their early 20s who can be cornerstone pieces in the middle of the lineup. If the Yankes can re-sign Soto, who is only 25 years old, they potentially have the meat of the order solved for the next 8-10 years with Volpe/Domingues/Soto. Include Judge for the next 3-4 he should still be good for.

It's not really close at all. There's 3 runaway candidates, and Panarin is at the top of the 2nd tier of candidates alongside Pastrnak and Matthews. Still good company to be in.

Lafreniere and Trocheck been serving up some easy goals for #10 all year. Whole line effort

You're clearly on a delayed stream. Spoiler alert: these don't age well

He's money at all strengths. He's just pure gold on the PP.

Very worthy winner