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The Weather Thread


GordonGecko

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2 hours ago, Parsley said:

Major streghtening overnight (approaching cat. 5 intensity). Not good. Heading for Cape Coral/Sarasota area for landfall it appears. Still looks like it then slowly crosses central Florida peninsula after landfall with a stripe of hurricane force winds heading toward Orlando and copious amounts of rain (in excess of 12") across much of central Florida. Tornado threat will continue near and south/east of storm track, especially across southern Florida peninsula.

 

Across northern Florida there will be a sharp cut off in flooding rain and high wind somewhere near Gainesville with much higher likelyhood once east toward Jacksonville.  A place like Tallahassee, FL may see little if any rain while a 100-150 miles east of there could see 10-20 inches with 60-80 mph winds.

I'll say this - we are still under a TS watch here in Gainesville. Not a warning. 

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2 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

I'll say this - we are still under a TS watch here in Gainesville. Not a warning. 

I'll add, a large swath of central FL peninsula is FUCKED. Can't even imagine the aftermath from this. Glad you should miss the brunt of it up your way.

Edited by Parsley
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Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence.  That data supported an intensity of 
about 135 kt a few hours ago.  Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold 
of category 5 status.  The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this 
advisory.
Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next 
few hours as a catastrophic hurricane.  No changes were made to the 
track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line 
with the latest consensus aids.   One important change is that Ian 
is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula. 

inxr1ktpaa_h.gif

 

Edited by Parsley
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2 hours ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

My wife, my brother, and my sister in law's favorite Florida vacation spot, Fort Myers Beach was absolutely destroyed.  I hope anyone on here who lives in Florida made out ok.

My old partner moved to Venice Beach after retiring. I couldn’t get in touch with him for a couple of days. Luckily he’s okay but his RV was destroyed. 

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9 minutes ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

How did your wife's family make out?

They are at the airport right now on the runway so it looks like they lucked out. I’m happy for them but it was such a dumb decision to go there in the first place. Thanks for asking my man. 

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First things first...the thing drifted far enough south that we barely had an issue.

 

Obviously, the damage in Fort Myers, Naples, Sanibel, etc is awful, but I've got a special place in my heart for Orlando having lived there for six years, and to see the streets I walked and the parks I visited under feet of water from lake flooding is absolutely heartbreaking. To be far away and unable to do anything to help is even worse. 

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35 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

First things first...the thing drifted far enough south that we barely had an issue.

 

Obviously, the damage in Fort Myers, Naples, Sanibel, etc is awful, but I've got a special place in my heart for Orlando having lived there for six years, and to see the streets I walked and the parks I visited under feet of water from lake flooding is absolutely heartbreaking. To be far away and unable to do anything to help is even worse. 

Glad you made out ok

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  • 2 months later...
5 hours ago, Keirik said:

@Parsley what are we looking for Xmas eve, day and beyond in the Boston / Freeport Maine area ? Wife and I are going on a 4 day trip starting Xmas eve to Boston and going ot Freeport ME for Xmas day. I hear talk of a Nor’Easter

Looks like a massive rainstorm Thursday night into Friday anywhere along the East Coast (snow confined to the Great Lakes region). Then an arctic blast over the weekend, but mainly dry. Winds with the rain late Thursday night into Friday could be intense before the cold front passage. Like 40-60 mph. If you are not leaving Long Island til Saturday, the rain will have passed and cold, strong winds will be your main concern driving north. Bulk of rain will be on Friday.

 

With a storm track into the Great Lakes, the fear of wintry weather looks to be minimal. 

Edited by Parsley
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2 hours ago, Parsley said:

Looks like a massive rainstorm Thursday night into Friday anywhere along the East Coast (snow confined to the Great Lakes region). Then an arctic blast over the weekend, but mainly dry. Winds with the rain late Thursday night into Friday could be intense before the cold front passage. Like 40-60 mph. If you are not leaving Long Island til Saturday, the rain will have passed and cold, strong winds will be your main concern driving north. Bulk of rain will be on Friday.

 

With a storm track into the Great Lakes, the fear of wintry weather looks to be minimal. 

 

Thanks Parsley!!  Youdda man!!!

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Since it's the holiday and this event will be impactful I'll break down the next few days...

 

Thursday: Rain moves into the area. 

 

Thursday night: Heavy rain and gusty southeast winds (20-40 mph) will batter the area with coastal flooding and erosion.

 

Friday: Rain ends early then an intense arctic front moves through the area dropping temperatures from the 40s and 50s Friday morning into the 0's and 10's in 6-12 hours Friday afternoon and night. Winds accompanying the front could be intense, over 50 mph, especially near the coast.  The cold front may produce a brief snow shower or snow squall, especially over interior area as it moves through.

 

Saturday: Very cold, windy and dry with temperatures only in the 10s and 20s.

 

Sunday: Cold and dry. Temperatures in the 20s.

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On 12/21/2022 at 7:01 AM, Parsley said:

Since it's the holiday and this event will be impactful I'll break down the next few days...

 

Thursday: Rain moves into the area. 

 

Thursday night: Heavy rain and gusty southeast winds (20-40 mph) will batter the area with coastal flooding and erosion.

 

Friday: Rain ends early then an intense arctic front moves through the area dropping temperatures from the 40s and 50s Friday morning into the 0's and 10's in 6-12 hours Friday afternoon and night. Winds accompanying the front could be intense, over 50 mph, especially near the coast.  The cold front may produce a brief snow shower or snow squall, especially over interior area as it moves through.

 

Saturday: Very cold, windy and dry with temperatures only in the 10s and 20s.

 

Sunday: Cold and dry. Temperatures in the 20s.

Season 9 Middle Finger GIF by Shameless

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Scary shit reading through all those tweets. No power, no help coming. Damn. 
 

and it is so fucking cold and windy. Even the dogs are like “fuck no” 

 

luckily we don’t have any snow. Maybe a few inches. But salt doesn’t work at this temp, making the roads tough, even with this little accumulation 

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38 minutes ago, josh said:

Scary shit reading through all those tweets. No power, no help coming. Damn. 
 

and it is so fucking cold and windy. Even the dogs are like “fuck no” 

 

luckily we don’t have any snow. Maybe a few inches. But salt doesn’t work at this temp, making the roads tough, even with this little accumulation 

Bitter,y cold here on LI right now. 9 degrees last I checked but thankfully dry. Leave for Boston and Maine tomorrow. 

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Had to remove a sheet of ice on the inside of all my windows this morning.

 

Forgot to lower the whole home humidifier from 35° to about 20°.

 

That much condensation+15 below wind chill=sheets of ice on windows. 

 

The hair dryer was busy. 

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