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[RS] (#49) Rangers vs. Detroit Red Wings — Bongo Time


Phil

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I think if you break it down into overall team numbers, it really does put light on a problem that's been apparent all season.

 

#3 in GA/G. Great, can't complain with that at all. Mainly on the shoulders of a remarkable season by Shesty, and reasonably solid team defense ahead of him.

 

#15 in GF/G. With 2.96 GF/G to be exact. Well it doesn't get much more average than that. And the problem is that all those teams in a playoff position, that the Rangers have struggled against at times in the regular season (apart from pulling out some sweet wins), are scoring between 3.25 to 3.75 per game. And that 0.25 to 0.75 difference basically highlights the lack of scoring depth that's been an issue all year and will continue to be an issue the rest of the season, and an even bigger issue in the post season when our the opposing defense will focus even more on our big guns, and PP opportunities will drop substantially.

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18 minutes ago, Pete said:

And the first game vs Tampa Elliot was .870 and next game Vassy was at .810. How many games you think you're seeing performances like that from their goalie?

 

Florida played Spencer Knight who gave an .882 performance. Igor .940.

 

How many times you think you're getting .882 from Bobrovsky? Who's a .920 goalie?

 

Like, we all realize other top teams are doing it with .920-.925 goalies and we need a .940 goalie....Right?

In the playoffs? Bob stinks in the playoffs. Career under .900% so I don’t know how many times. Bob also has a career .908% against us specifically in 25 games. 
 

I just don’t get the logic. So Bob is a .920 goalie and we will ignore how he turns into a pumpkin coke playoff time.  Well then Igor is a .938 goalie. He was a .932 goalie as a rookie. He was a .930 goalie in Hartford. He was a .930-.950 goalie in Russia. It’s not like this isn’t who he is. He’s not playing one year lights out and average every other year. 
 

As for Vasy. I also don’t understand what the point is. So when we beat an elite goalie it’s met with. “ how often do you think k you are going to beat an elite goalie” Then if we win it’s because Igor stood on his head and how often can we depend on Igor to stand on his head. Swayman had a .971% the other and we won. Quick had a .933% in late Jan and we won.  We lit up Campbell  before the break who has a .924% for the year. We are winning some games even when goalies also are standing on their head. We are lighting up some goalies that are having good years or have cups under their belt. 
 

  They aren’t a perfect team. They rely on their best players to be their best players. It’s a formula that’s been used many many many times to varying degrees of success. There are powerplays in the postseason. There are even up calls for 4 v 4 with more open ice. We have a young team that is taking the first steps into that upper echelon of the league and we are learning on the fly while being a top team record wise in the league. Fuck, sign me up for that after the last 3 years. And we are doing this while our first and second overall talents still have a fuck ton more to give. 

 

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52 minutes ago, Keirik said:

 

I just don’t get the logic. So Bob is a .920 goalie and we will ignore how he turns into a pumpkin coke playoff time.  Well then Igor is a .938 goalie. He was a .932 goalie as a rookie. He was a .930 goalie in Hartford. He was a .930-.950 goalie in Russia. It’s not like this isn’t who he is. He’s not playing one year lights out and average every other year. 

I know you don't get it. Crazy because it's been laid out and explained tons. 

 

For this point specifically, It's not about Igor NOT being a +.940 goalie. It's that he has to be that kind of goalie when every other team surrounding the Rangers in the standings is doing it with .925 and below. 

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56 minutes ago, Keirik said:

As for Vasy. I also don’t understand what the point is. So when we beat an elite goalie it’s met with. “ how often do you think k you are going to beat an elite goalie”

Yes more of you not getting it.

 

The bolded isn't what I said. What I actually said is how often is the elite goalie gonna turn in an .870 performance? 

 

 

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“Chris Kreider, come get the Stanley Cup!”

 

“Yeah, but the Rangers had a 48% Corsi and Shesty had to post a .940 sv %. Not sustainable going into next year.”

 

Sure, the team can improve 5v5, and I’m sure they will via additions and changes up front on the team. But I just don’t see why Shesty being a stud is viewed as a negative rather than a positive and a strength. Shesty has performed this way consistently throughout his career, so I’m not worrying about the “what if” until he shows otherwise.

 

The Canes are 5-8-2 when Aho doesn’t score any points. So are they too reliant on Aho to win? The point being that a team’s best player(s) generally need to show up whether it’s a forward, defenseman, or goalie, and it might not even matter if they are analytics darlings like the Canes.

 

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1 minute ago, Pete said:

Yes more of you not getting it.

 

The bolded isn't what I said. What I actually said is how often is the elite goalie gonna turn in an .870 performance? 

 

 

For Bob quite often in the playoffs. For Toronto? Who knows. They find a thousand ways to choke but Andersen has been good.. For Carolina? Not as likely. For Pitt? Jarry is a career .894 in 8 starts in the playoffs thus far. For Washington? I don’t know who the eff their goalie is  it neither Samsonov or Vanacek have much playoff experience and what they have is horrid. 
 

  Sorry. I’d do more teams but there aren’t any more with points near us in our conference. 
 

and again, so what if we rely more on our goalie. That’s fine for the playoffs. There’s nothing crazy about me disagreeing with you. We both have opinions. The playoffs have not played out yet, so until then, it’s just an opinion. I’ll never fully count out a team with the best goalie in the world. 

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19 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

Sure, the team can improve 5v5, and I’m sure they will via additions and changes up front on the team.

And when they do, I'll reevaluate. 

Quote

But I just don’t see why Shesty being a stud is viewed as a negative rather than a positive and a strength.

Because it's not lol

Quote

Shesty has performed this way consistently throughout his career, so I’m not worrying about the “what if” until he shows otherwise.

Or gets hurt...which like never happens....

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18 minutes ago, Keirik said:

For Bob quite often in the playoffs. For Toronto? Who knows. They find a thousand ways to choke but Andersen has been good.. For Carolina? Not as likely. For Pitt? Jarry is a career .894 in 8 starts in the playoffs thus far. For Washington? I don’t know who the eff their goalie is  it neither Samsonov or Vanacek have much playoff experience and what they have is horrid. 
 

  Sorry. I’d do more teams but there aren’t any more with points near us in our conference. 
 

and again, so what if we rely more on our goalie. That’s fine for the playoffs. There’s nothing crazy about me disagreeing with you. We both have opinions. The playoffs have not played out yet, so until then, it’s just an opinion. I’ll never fully count out a team with the best goalie in the world. 

I'm talking about Vassy and you're talking about every other goalie but him. You're all over the place and moving all sorts of goalposts in the process. 

 

I've made my points multiple times, and they stand, so you can just go back and read them for my replies to whatever you're going to say next. 

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24 minutes ago, Pete said:

I'm talking about Vassy and you're talking about every other goalie but him. You're all over the place and moving all sorts of goalposts in the process. 

 

I've made my points multiple times, and they stand, so you can just go back and read them for my replies to whatever you're going to say next. 

Hard stop. I’m not all over the place. I’m consistent. I don’t think it’s the end of the world that our best player is a game breaker and the best goalie in the world. He gives us a chance to win basically every single night. I think you are all over the place. One post there’s an excuse why we beat Boston then when you’re shown we beat them another time so you switch to Florida until you were reminded we also beat them and did so without our Norris winner in the lineup. Now you’re saying you’re talking solely Tampa. The defending Stanley Cup Champions. We beat them as well, but I guess it only counts if we beat them and Vasy stands on his head in the process and Shesty throws up a stinker. I’ve made my points multiple times as well. 
 

Vasy is an incredible goaltender. He’s also only a .911 goalie against us in 8 career games despite being a career .924 goalie. I don’t know what would happen if we play Tampa in a 7 game series. I’d sure like to find out though since the game is played out on the ice and not on paper though. 

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14 hours ago, Keirik said:

It’s hard to tell if we have anyone that can yet. There are so many guys that need playoff experience on this roster before we can figure this stuff out.  I agree that a 28 year old ld Rooney with zero playoff games under his bel5 pales in comparison to a 33 or so season vet in Dominic Moore. There is only one way to tell though. Someone has to step up and you never know who’s it’s going to be come playoff time. Remember when Brian Boyle thought he was an elite power forward against Ottawa during the playoffs in like 2012 maybe? Remember when Nash forgot how to score in most postseasons? Lol. These are the kinds of things we need to find out. We can make some smart upgrades but I’m not selling all of our top talents and futures just to nab rentals that can never remain here. I’ll do it if it’s a guy that is going to be a piece for next year or more, but not to be held ransom just to get a player for 6 weeks or so. 
 

I want to win but I see this team as having a lot better pieces than we give credit for. The results are there but just not how we get to them. There are however, games that show me the capabilities are there. We didn’t crumble when we lost Fox for 5 or so games. We didn’t roll but we didn’t die on the vine either. We have some of those games where we beat good teams. We have games where we don’t of course, but the foundation is there in my mind. Plus with how heavy we are with 5 or 6 contracts that will all be here until 24/25 at the earliest, we are going to need cost effective production and experience through playing big games whether we like it or not. 

 

I admire your optimism, Keith, I really do, but I can't subscribe to it.

 

Yes, there are things that we still need to find out about this team. 14 members of the current roster have never played in a playoff game not including the Covid Pity Play-In. The players who've been good, I expect might struggle at first, but they'll still be good. I wouldn't expect those who've struggled to suddenly have things click. The Rangers have time and time again struggled at 5v5 this season and that's how most playoff hockey is played. They've squeaked out a number of wins during the regular season that probably won't happen in the playoffs. The powerplay won't be the lifeline it's been. You're asking to be swept by not drastically improving the makeup of the bottom-six. The Rangers need depth. Not hope.

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58 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

I admire your optimism, Keith, I really do, but I can't subscribe to it.

 

Yes, there are things that we still need to find out about this team. 14 members of the current roster have never played in a playoff game not including the Covid Pity Play-In. The players who've been good, I expect might struggle at first, but they'll still be good. I wouldn't expect those who've struggled to suddenly have things click. The Rangers have time and time again struggled at 5v5 this season and that's how most playoff hockey is played. They've squeaked out a number of wins during the regular season that probably won't happen in the playoffs. The powerplay won't be the lifeline it's been. You're asking to be swept by not drastically improving the makeup of the bottom-six. The Rangers need depth. Not hope.

I suppose we will see. I'm simply saying thar our game breaker is our goalie. He will keep us in games and will steal some. We also gave big money tied up in guys we are stuck with. Might as well see if they step up or learn what it will take to win in the playoffs. We can't trade every prospect for rentals and clean the cupboard just for this run because we need some of those cost controlled contracts to give us an impact fir a few more years until the cap goes up or ntc expire. Id likei not be a one and fine team in terms of making the playoffs because we put all the eggs into winning in our first year ever making the playoffs with this group. It's not a recipe for success usually. 

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7 minutes ago, Keirik said:

I suppose we will see. I'm simply saying thar our game breaker is our goalie. He will keep us in games and will steal some. We also gave big money tied up in guys we are stuck with. Might as well see if they step up or learn what it will take to win in the playoffs. We can't trade every prospect for rentals and clean the cupboard just for this run because we need some of those cost controlled contracts to give us an impact fir a few more years until the cap goes up or ntc expire. Id likei not be a one and fine team in terms of making the playoffs because we put all the eggs into winning in our first year ever making the playoffs with this group. It's not a recipe for success usually. 

 

I think it's an exaggeration to say that they'll clear the cupboards for this run. That won't happen. But they can't afford to do nothing either. Standing pat is death.

 

While I agree that Shesterkin is a game breaker, you're asking far too much of him going into playoffs. Lundqvist had teams that could provide 5v5 offense. Shesterkin currently does not. He's been having to steal games during the regular season against middle of the road teams and worse because of lack of support. It is far too optimistic to think that he can continue doing it especially in the playoffs. Not because he doesn't have the ability, but because the team lacks the ability to support him. In the playoffs he'll also be facing far greater weapons far more frequently. Shesterkin is great, but he isn't impenetrable and he can't start scoring goals for the team. They need help.

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1 minute ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

I think it's an exaggeration to say that they'll clear the cupboards for this run. That won't happen. But they can't afford to do nothing either. Standing pat is death.

 

While I agree that Shesterkin is a game breaker, you're asking far too much of him going into playoffs. Lundqvist had teams that could provide 5v5 offense. Shesterkin currently does not. He's been having to steal games during the regular season against middle of the road teams because of lack of support. It is far too optimistic to think that he can continue doing it especially in the playoffs. Not because he doesn't have the ability, but because the team lacks the ability to support him. In the playoffs he'll also be facing far greater weapons far more frequently. Shesterkin is great, but he isn't impenetrable and he can't start scoring goals for the team. They need help.

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11 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

I think it's an exaggeration to say that they'll clear the cupboards for this run. That won't happen. But they can't afford to do nothing either. Standing pat is death.

 

While I agree that Shesterkin is a game breaker, you're asking far too much of him going into playoffs. Lundqvist had teams that could provide 5v5 offense. Shesterkin currently does not. He's been having to steal games during the regular season against middle of the road teams and worse because of lack of support. It is far too optimistic to think that he can continue doing it especially in the playoffs. Not because he doesn't have the ability, but because the team lacks the ability to support him. In the playoffs he'll also be facing far greater weapons far more frequently. Shesterkin is great, but he isn't impenetrable and he can't start scoring goals for the team. They need help.

Well, it hasnt seemed to affect him yet in terms of the opponent. I’m not saying it’s ideal but teams have has a fun with their goalie being the end all be all. The Tim Thomas cup year comes to mind. The Lundqvist cup run comes to mind. Hell with Lundqvist’s team they didn’t even have a guy in double digit goals through the playoffs. They had spread out contributions and Hank had to be super Hank. Sucks we didn’t win but I’d take that run this year after the Quinn years. There are powerplays in the playoffs. There will be chances for this team. It’ll just be a case of finding out who steps up, who elevates their game, and who clearly can’t handle the bigger moment.

 

 In terms of cleaning the cupboards. We keep throwing out names like Chytil, Lundkvist, and Kravtsov. Only Kravtsov has value really and it’s not even that much. Teams are going to be asking for Schneider, Miller, Othmann and 1sts. No way I deal Schneider. I don’t even want to deal Miller either. We need these guys to not just fill out the roster but be players, learn what it takes to win, and be part of this club because cap wise we can’t exactly afford another meaty contract after this current year without retention. The rumored price for a guy like JT Miller is astronomical. 

 

    Look, this all started with the idea that the way they are, it’s a guarantee they won’t go far in the playoffs and I started saying that’s impossible to know when you have a goalie the plays on a .940 clip. It’s not on accident they are where they are. The roster that is playing tonight is the roster that needs to learn how to produce at 5 v 5 because it’s the only one they can afford to put out there after this season. 

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47 minutes ago, Keirik said:

Well, it hasnt seemed to affect him yet in terms of the opponent. I’m not saying it’s ideal but teams have has a fun with their goalie being the end all be all. The Tim Thomas cup year comes to mind. The Lundqvist cup run comes to mind. Hell with Lundqvist’s team they didn’t even have a guy in double digit goals through the playoffs. They had spread out contributions and Hank had to be super Hank. Sucks we didn’t win but I’d take that run this year after the Quinn years. There are powerplays in the playoffs. There will be chances for this team. It’ll just be a case of finding out who steps up, who elevates their game, and who clearly can’t handle the bigger moment.

 

 In terms of cleaning the cupboards. We keep throwing out names like Chytil, Lundkvist, and Kravtsov. Only Kravtsov has value really and it’s not even that much. Teams are going to be asking for Schneider, Miller, Othmann and 1sts. No way I deal Schneider. I don’t even want to deal Miller either. We need these guys to not just fill out the roster but be players, learn what it takes to win, and be part of this club because cap wise we can’t exactly afford another meaty contract after this current year without retention. The rumored price for a guy like JT Miller is astronomical. 

 

    Look, this all started with the idea that the way they are, it’s a guarantee they won’t go far in the playoffs and I started saying that’s impossible to know when you have a goalie the plays on a .940 clip. It’s not on accident they are where they are. The roster that is playing tonight is the roster that needs to learn how to produce at 5 v 5 because it’s the only one they can afford to put out there after this season. 

 

The Bruins had the most 5v5 goals (regular season) in the league when they went to the Cup with Thomas. Source.

 

The Rangers were 15th in 2012, 17th in 2014 and 2nd in 2015. They're currently 22nd and that's with far more offensive talent on the top two lines than they ever had then. The Rangers didn't win during those runs so I don't see how you can use their process as an outline for success. It's an outline for how to be a bridesmaid and not the bride. I have zero interest in that. You need more than a good goalie to get you through the playoffs and win it all. The goal is to win it all isn't it?

 

Of course powerplays happen in the playoffs, but they occur less frequently. You can't bank on the powerplay. You can't bank on hope. You're suggesting they wait and see who steps up. I see that as waiting to see who falters. The Covid play-in isn't a good barometer, but Zibanejad was nowhere to be found. Panarin's game died along with Jesper Fast's braincells. Who's supposed to step up if they fall flat? Chytil? Gauthier? It isn't happening. Not reliably. If they aren't getting it done in the regular season then they aren't getting it done in the postseason. Let's not pretend that regular season hockey and postseason hockey are the same thing. They are not. This team has ridden Shesterkin and the powerplay all season long and barely bested weaker competition. The numbers in the win column are nice, but I'm not going to close my eyes and plug my ears to ignore how they happened.

 

I don't really care what the ask is for certain players because ask almost never amounts to return. How often does a team get what they want? How often does a team get top prospects? Go lookup trades over recent years. The only team aggressively offloading their top prospects is Vegas. They're an outlier.

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26 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

The Bruins had the most 5v5 goals (regular season) in the league when they went to the Cup with Thomas. Source.

 

The Rangers were 15th in 2012, 17th in 2014 and 2nd in 2015. They're currently 22nd and that's with far more offensive talent on the top two lines than they ever had then. The Rangers didn't win during those runs so I don't see how you can use their process as an outline for success. It's an outline for how to be a bridesmaid and not the bride. I have zero interest in that. You need more than a good goalie to get you through the playoffs and win it all. The goal is to win it all isn't it?

 

Of course powerplays happen in the playoffs, but they occur less frequently. You can't bank on the powerplay. You can't bank on hope. You're suggesting they wait and see who steps up. I see that as waiting to see who falters. The Covid play-in isn't a good barometer, but Zibanejad was nowhere to be found. Panarin's game died along with Jesper Fast's braincells. Who's supposed to step up if they fall flat? Chytil? Gauthier? It isn't happening. Not reliably. If they aren't getting it done in the regular season then they aren't getting it done in the postseason. Let's not pretend that regular season hockey and postseason hockey are the same thing. They are not. This team has ridden Shesterkin and the powerplay all season long and barely bested weaker competition. The numbers in the win column are nice, but I'm not going to close my eyes and plug my ears to ignore how they happened.

 

I don't really care what the ask is for certain players because ask almost never amounts to return. How often does a team get what they want? How often does a team get top prospects? Go lookup trades over recent years. The only team aggressively offloading their top prospects is Vegas. They're an outlier.

Yeah I don’t know about powerplays being lower in the playoffs. There are stats that show otherwise.

 

Here’s an article from oilers nation that contradicts whistles being put away. It’s from last year but it gets the point across. 

 

YEAR

PP/GP REG

PP/GP PLAYOFFS

2015

3.06

2.92

2016

3.11

3.27

2017

2.99

3.12

2018

3.04

3.23

2019

2.92

3.16

2020

2.97

3.51

    https://oilersnation.com/2021/05/13/playoff-preview-do-refs-put-whistles-away-in-nhl-playoffs/

  There is also this article about the Caps specifically.

 

In each of the past four postseasons, the Caps have actually had more power play opportunities per game in the playoffs than they had in the regular season:

2021: 2.73 power plays per game in the regular season, 4.20 power plays per game in the playoffs

2019-20: 3.13 in the regular season, 3.50 in the playoffs

2018-19: 2.88 in the regular season, 3.43 in the playoffs

2017-18: 2.98 in the regular season, 3.13 in the playoffs

 

As for trades, I’m not going to go crazy looking up everything but one that comes to mind we’re the Caps trading Forsberg to Nashville for Martin Erat. I can also remember us trading away JT Miller. 

 

 

 

 

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That's two teams. Seems more anecdotal. If you had something showing all teams then it'd sway me.

 

Erat for Forsberg was nearly a decade ago. Pretty much everyone knew that was awful from the start. JT Miller was in his 6th NHL season when he was dealt to Tampa. That's not even close to being a prospect. Also not a deal that was meant to bolster the team at the time. They were selling. Weird argument on that one.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

That's two teams. Seems more anecdotal. If you had something showing all teams then it'd sway me.

 

Erat for Forsberg was nearly a decade ago. Pretty much everyone knew that was awful from the start. JT Miller was in his 6th NHL season when he was dealt to Tampa. That's not even close to being a prospect. Also not a deal that was meant to bolster the team at the time. They were selling. Weird argument on that one.

 

 

That first link I believe is league stats, not Oilers. They didn’t make the playoffs every year in those stats. 17/18 and 18/19 they def didn’t make the playoffs.

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55 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

 

Erat for Forsberg was nearly a decade ago. Pretty much everyone knew that was awful from the start. JT Miller was in his 6th NHL season when he was dealt to Tampa. That's not even close to being a prospect. Also not a deal that was meant to bolster the team at the time. They were selling. Weird argument on that one.

 

 

 Well like I said, off the top of my head those were just two. I’m sure there are more. I know we now know they weren’t top prospects but in that same JT Miller trade, we did get two 1st round picks in Howden and Namestnikov who was a 24 year old former 1st rounder that had 20 goals. Plus Hajek was a 2nd rounder. I’ll concede the point because I can’t really think of too many.

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2 minutes ago, Keirik said:

 Well like I said, off the top of my head those were just two. I’m sure there are more. I know we now know they weren’t top prospects but in that same JT Miller trade, we did get two 1st round picks in Howden and Namestnikov who was a 24 year old former 1st rounder that had 20 goals. Plus Hajek was a 2nd rounder. I’ll concede the point because I can’t really think of too many.

 

But think about who we wanted. Howden and Hajek weren't remotely our first choices. We wanted guys like Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, etc. Those were Tampa's top prospects at the time. The Rangers traded two quality players in McDonagh and Miller and still couldn't get Tampa to offer their best. 

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3 hours ago, Keirik said:

Well, it hasnt seemed to affect him yet in terms of the opponent. I’m not saying it’s ideal but teams have has a fun with their goalie being the end all be all. The Tim Thomas cup year comes to mind. The Lundqvist cup run comes to mind. Hell with Lundqvist’s team they didn’t even have a guy in double digit goals through the playoffs. They had spread out contributions and Hank had to be super Hank. Sucks we didn’t win but I’d take that run this year after the Quinn years. There are powerplays in the playoffs. There will be chances for this team. It’ll just be a case of finding out who steps up, who elevates their game, and who clearly can’t handle the bigger moment.

 

 In terms of cleaning the cupboards. We keep throwing out names like Chytil, Lundkvist, and Kravtsov. Only Kravtsov has value really and it’s not even that much. Teams are going to be asking for Schneider, Miller, Othmann and 1sts. No way I deal Schneider. I don’t even want to deal Miller either. We need these guys to not just fill out the roster but be players, learn what it takes to win, and be part of this club because cap wise we can’t exactly afford another meaty contract after this current year without retention. The rumored price for a guy like JT Miller is astronomical. 

 

    Look, this all started with the idea that the way they are, it’s a guarantee they won’t go far in the playoffs and I started saying that’s impossible to know when you have a goalie the plays on a .940 clip. It’s not on accident they are where they are. The roster that is playing tonight is the roster that needs to learn how to produce at 5 v 5 because it’s the only one they can afford to put out there after this season. 

Which means the other teams get power plays too. And the further you go in the playoffs, the more offensively-talented the teams you face figure to be, and therefore, more dangerous on their own PP. I cringe every time Rosen goes off on a happytalk rant about how good the NYR's PK is; borders on him suggesting getting penalties is no big deal. In the playoffs that figures to be an illusion.Without looking at numbers, rather, personnel-Pens, Bruins, Canes, Bolts and Panthers all have great PP units that will cause us some trouble. And looking at the numbers, need to be more effective 5 on 5. Bolts, Caps and Pens statistically right now aren't  as good on paper as NYR.  But that's respectively the 2 time defending Cup champions, followed by Crosby/Malkin and then Ovie. 

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