Brooks Nils Lundkvist Won't Report to Camp; Traded to DAL for 2023 1st and 4th

[jsm7302]

48 minutes ago, Pete said:

Once a kid asks out, Drury's job is acting in the best interest of the team, not the kid.

I agree with you but you can also look at the big picture and realize recovering "an" asset is better than acquiring none. He is a depreciating asset; how he does not see this the same way boggles my mind. If the value wasn't there at the deadline last year it sure as hell isn't going to be better this year. You can make a deal that can take the team and Nils into consideration. It just feels spiteful. 

[BrooksBurner]

Tough luck for Drury on this one. Lundkvist’s value was highest last summer, before he came over to the US, based on overseas play. There was no way to know that Schneider would perform how he did out of the gate and leapfrog Lundkvist so decisively both short term and long term fit. There was also no way to know that Lundkvist would perform under expectations with Hartford. Drury has to just make the best of it. A high 2nd round pick is actually more than I would have expected.

 

I will start to blame Drury if he waits too long though, and that 2nd round value becomes a 3rd or 4th. Don’t sit on it. Find the best option within the next couple of weeks, pull the trigger, and move on.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

Tough luck for Drury on this one. Lundkvist’s value was highest last summer, before he came over to the US, based on overseas play. There was no way to know that Schneider would perform how he did out of the gate and leapfrog Lundkvist so decisively both short term and long term fit. There was also no way to know that Lundkvist would perform under expectations with Hartford. Drury has to just make the best of it. A high 2nd round pick is actually more than I would have expected.

 

I will start to blame Drury if he waits too long though, and that 2nd round value becomes a 3rd or 4th. Don’t sit on it. Find the best option within the next couple of weeks, pull the trigger, and move on.

 

I mean, I agree, but I think Drury made his own bed on this one, because Nemeth was targeted specifically to play with Lundkvist, and Nemeth was objectively the worst free agent defender they signed since probably Wade Redden. Lundkvist completely underwhelmed the eye test, failing to meet the pomp and circumstance he was billed with, having been named the top defender in the SEL, but his underlying numbers were actually quite good given the fucking black hole he was asked to play with.

 

So I can't give Drury a pass here. He designed the environment, even if Nils didn't quite live up to his billing on his own.

 

That said, there's just no way that a 22-year-old player with 25 NHL games is going to have his value sink like a stone like this. Name your price and wait for someone to meet it. If they don't...

 

[Keirik]

10 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

Tough luck for Drury on this one. Lundkvist’s value was highest last summer, before he came over to the US, based on overseas play. There was no way to know that Schneider would perform how he did out of the gate and leapfrog Lundkvist so decisively both short term and long term fit. There was also no way to know that Lundkvist would perform under expectations with Hartford. Drury has to just make the best of it. A high 2nd round pick is actually more than I would have expected.

 

I will start to blame Drury if he waits too long though, and that 2nd round value becomes a 3rd or 4th. Don’t sit on it. Find the best option within the next couple of weeks, pull the trigger, and move on.

In reality though, why would it have been such a surprise Schneider could potentially leapfrog Lundkvist?  Just because of age I guess? They both were late 1st rounders and the Rangers traded up to make sure they got Schneider no?  Drury was involved as assistant Gm then so it’s not like he didn’t have all the knowledge necessary to see a log jam. 
 

I kind of feel Drury dropped the ball here. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

I mean, I agree, but I think Drury made his own bed on this one, because Nemeth was targeted specifically to play with Lundkvist, and Nemeth was objectively the worst free agent defender they signed since probably Wade Redden. Lundkvist completely underwhelmed the eye test, failing to meet the pomp and circumstance he was billed with, having been named the top defender in the SEL, but his underlying numbers were actually quite good given the fucking black hole he was asked to play with.

 

So I can't give Drury a pass here. He designed the environment, even if Nils didn't quite live up to his billing on his own.

 

That said, there's just no way that a 22-year-old player with 25 NHL games is going to have his value sink like a stone like this. Name your price and wait for someone to meet it. If they don't...

 

Nemeth was a mistake because he sucks, but he isn’t why Lundkvist lost his spot (or value) in short/long term plans to Schneider. While I get the link you are making, it further proves the expectation for Lundkvist was that he was going to be good…but he wasn’t.

 

If Drury knew Lundkvist wouldn’t perform adequately right away, and Schneider would, he 1) might not have signed Nemeth, and 2) would have traded high on Lundkvist. I also would have bought Bitcoin back in 2010 if I only knew.

[Pete]

Lundqvist's value started dropping during Fox rookie year (when ADA was PPQB), then dropped more when Fox won the Norris. Teams around the league knew Lundqvist wasn't going to have a role here with Fox, Trouba (and ADA for some time).

 

Got nothing to do with Drury, IMO. Teams try to go for prospects who are blocked by players all the time.

[BrooksBurner]

11 minutes ago, Keirik said:

In reality though, why would it have been such a surprise Schneider could potentially leapfrog Lundkvist?  Just because of age I guess? They both were late 1st rounders and the Rangers traded up to make sure they got Schneider no?  Drury was involved as assistant Gm then so it’s not like he didn’t have all the knowledge necessary to see a log jam. 
 

I kind of feel Drury dropped the ball here. 

I wouldn’t say it was a surprise as much as it was that nobody really knew who would take the spot, so you have to keep your options open. The approach will get you who you feel is the best player, but also might lead to trade value degradation of the player(s) who got beat out for the spot.

 

We have that happening at other positions currently. Imagine Kravtsov blows up and Kakko shits his pants again? Kravtsov would be valuable and Kakko would be worth next to nothing in comparison to his draft position…but how can you know without holding both and seeing how they do next season?

Edited September 9, 2022 by rmc51

[Albatrosss]

this is the scenario where picking best available player in the draft backfires 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by CCCP

[Keirik]

49 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

I wouldn’t say it was a surprise as much as it was that nobody really knew who would take the spot, so you have to keep your options open. The approach will get you who you feel is the best player, but also might lead to trade value degradation of the player(s) who got beat out for the spot.

 

We have that happening at other positions currently. Imagine Kravtsov blows up and Kakko shits his pants again? Kravtsov would be valuable and Kakko would be worth next to nothing in comparison to his draft position…but how can you know without holding both and seeing how they do next season?

I would agree with that if Lundkvist wasn’t still on the team today. Last season alone pretty much showed Drury that Nils didn’t fit yet here we are a month before the season with the kid still on the roster. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Keirik said:

I would agree with that if Lundkvist wasn’t still on the team today. Last season alone pretty much showed Drury that Nils didn’t fit yet here we are a month before the season with the kid still on the roster. 

But Staple reported the best offer Drury had pre-22 draft was a 2nd round pick. If he still gets that then no harm no foul, but I can’t say I’d have taken that deal either at the time even with Lundkvist privately requesting a trade. I probably would have still preferred to hold onto him in case of 1) injury to players in front of him such that he can possibly step up and make a difference, and/or 2) he adapts/rebounds well in Hartford and is a better piece for an impactful return at the deadline.

 

Now Lundkvist has bitched out by going public rather than focusing on making himself a more valuable and proven commodity on the ice that would make teams want to actually pursue him instead of tossing a pretty weak-ish offer to the Rangers for him.

Edited September 9, 2022 by rmc51

[Phil]

The problem isn't going public. The problem is he apparently won't report to Hartford. That was the same issue with Kravtsov and Andersson, too. When your prospect won't play for your minor league team it significantly damages your ability to shop them around the league, because naturally, every GM is going to be wondering the same thing — if he won't play for your farm team, will he do the same to me? If so, I'm not paying a remotely heavy price to acquire him.

[Morphinity 2.0]

2 hours ago, CCCP said:

this is the scenario where picking best available player in the draft backfires 

 

 

 

 

No it isn't. By the time the Rangers made that pick they didn't have any of the players who currently play on their right side. Fox and Trouba wouldn't come until the next off-season and they didn't draft Schneider until 2 years later.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Nashley Tisdale said:

No it isn't. By the time the Rangers made that pick they didn't have any of the players who currently play on their right side. Fox and Trouba wouldn't come until the next off-season and they didn't draft Schneider until 2 years later.

 

This. The picked a guy they liked when he was available. Maybe it was BPA, maybe it was just that they liked him. Doesn't matter. Had nothing to do with the depth chart at the time. Guy was drafted in 2018. The Rangers had like Kevin Shattenkirk and Brendan Smith on their right side then.

[BrooksBurner]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

The problem isn't going public. The problem is he apparently won't report to Hartford. That was the same issue with Kravtsov and Andersson, too. When your prospect won't play for your minor league team it significantly damages your ability to shop them around the league, because naturally, every GM is going to be wondering the same thing — if he won't play for your farm team, will he do the same to me? If so, I'm not paying a remotely heavy price to acquire him.

Not reporting for the AHL team is essentially the same thing as going public on a trade request, except even more damaging for the reasons you mentioned.

[Phil]

It's not. A public trade request can maybe limit your return because it lets the rest of the league know, publicly, the player wants out. Refusing to report is so much worse. Not only does the league know the player wants out, but that they won't even play for your affiliate, which gives them less reason to meet your asking price, lest the player do the same shit to them.

[Jdog99]

Do scouts not pay any attention to the AHL? If you think your a lock for playing time somewhere in the NHL, then go dominate with the wolfpack and prove it.

[The Dude]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

 

Exactly this. I don't give a shit if you think I'm "stifling" your career. Your career is no longer my concern. Your value is. I'm going to maximize it or die trying.

He has 2 years left on his current deal. I guess they can sit on him for a year, but his value probably diminishes big time, every day he isn't in NA.

 

So, his career "stifling" should be of concern because he's unproven still.  He didnt stay in the NHL, didn't dominate the AHL and now doesn't want to report to Hartford to build his value. I think they need to move him sooner rather than later. 

 

I'd think his value is already low as far as what any of us would like to get back in return. It's only going to decrease  with every passing game Schneider and every other young Dman gets to play at the NHL level.

 

Jones and Robertson are knocking on the door and are already higher up on the depth chart. I think other teams see the Rangers need to move him, because of his perceived talent level.  I don't see this going on long if teams believe the hype (including the Rangers). 

 

You'd have to imagine any team that has interest would need a guarantee that the kid will report.  If Arizona pays up for him and he says he doesn't want to play for a shit team,  then the Rangers are in trouble. 

 

Drury DID get more than any of us thought he would for Georgiev at the time of the deal. Yet, we all had higher hopes for greater returns over the past 3 years. I hope he doesn't wait till his back is against the wall again. 

[The Dude]

6 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

I agree with you but you can also look at the big picture and realize recovering "an" asset is better than acquiring none. He is a depreciating asset; how he does not see this the same way boggles my mind. If the value wasn't there at the deadline last year it sure as hell isn't going to be better this year. You can make a deal that can take the team and Nils into consideration. It just feels spiteful. 

Meh. I did. Kinda called this when they signed Jones and brought him up right away. Had a feeling Lundkvist wasn't going to be happy with competition or that he'd be ready for the competition.

 

His size, playing style, and his lack of experience on NA ice were going to be issues for him no matter what.  I felt a few guys had an upper hand on him because he needed an adjustment period that he probably wouldn't be able to squeeze in at the NHL level with this team. I think they over hyped him and fed his ego way too soon. He deserves a shot. He's just not going to get what he needs or wants here. With Fox and Trouba here and DeAngelo here a year prior with them, how couldn't anyone see this coming? 

[Pete]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

The problem isn't going public. The problem is he apparently won't report to Hartford. That was the same issue with Kravtsov and Andersson, too. When your prospect won't play for your minor league team it significantly damages your ability to shop them around the league, because naturally, every GM is going to be wondering the same thing — if he won't play for your farm team, will he do the same to me? If so, I'm not paying a remotely heavy price to acquire him.

Well some people claim that the city of Hartford is the issue, as if it's any better than Bridgeport or Manchester or Ontario, California. 

[Pete]

If they're looking at trading Nils alone, they're doing it wrong.

 

Nils + Chytil + mid round pick should be able to net you a solid 3C who can win draws, PK, has size, etc. 

[Keirik]

3 hours ago, rmc51 said:

But Staple reported the best offer Drury had pre-22 draft was a 2nd round pick. If he still gets that then no harm no foul, but I can’t say I’d have taken that deal either at the time even with Lundkvist privately requesting a trade. I probably would have still preferred to hold onto him in case of 1) injury to players in front of him such that he can possibly step up and make a difference, and/or 2) he adapts/rebounds well in Hartford and is a better piece for an impactful return at the deadline.

 

Now Lundkvist has bitched out by going public rather than focusing on making himself a more valuable and proven commodity on the ice that would make teams want to actually pursue him instead of tossing a pretty weak-ish offer to the Rangers for him.

I mean, no one knows exactly what was/is offered. More importantly though, Lundkvists value always was going to be highest in a package anyway with his lack of experience. I don't really blame Nils. What is he supposed to do really? He's been blocked since day 1 really. This was always inevitable after a while.  

[Keirik]

9 minutes ago, Pete said:

If they're looking at trading Nils alone, they're doing it wrong.

 

Nils + Chytil + mid round pick should be able to net you a solid 3C who can win draws, PK, has size, etc. 

Exactly. I posted before reading your result but I totally agree. Lundkvists value was always going to be highest in a package. 

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

If they're looking at trading Nils alone, they're doing it wrong.

 

Nils + Chytil + mid round pick should be able to net you a solid 3C who can win draws, PK, has size, etc. 

Pretty much where I see this going.  He's not a centerpiece for any trade but a big time sweetener. Chytil, Kakko or Blais are likely to be stapled to Lundkvist for some sort of center.

 

Sadly I see a big backfire on any situation like that. 

[Albatrosss]

9 hours ago, Nashley Tisdale said:

No it isn't. By the time the Rangers made that pick they didn't have any of the players who currently play on their right side. Fox and Trouba wouldn't come until the next off-season and they didn't draft Schneider until 2 years later.

Like I said, they picked the best available player at the time and it is backfiring. But you can spin it any way you want 

[Pete]

6 hours ago, CCCP said:

Like I said, they picked the best available player at the time and it is backfiring. But you can spin it any way you want 

So you're saying they shouldn't have went BPA, they should have picked based upon players they didn't know they'd have at the time of the pick?