The Julien Gauthier Redemption Tour?

[Pete]

9 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I don't care which one plays, but neither deserves more praise than the other.

 

8 minutes ago, The Dude said:

It's a Gauthier thread. What should we be talking about here? LOL, I get it.

 

I myself think more of this player, than just being thev12th/13th forward. 

Point is neither is as good as Prucha. 

[The Dude]

5 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

Goal on 11/26 assisted by Blais.  Then disappeared for a month.

He's been scratched for how many straight? Can't disappear when you aren't playing. Numbers are there. At the most hes gone 5 games played without getting on the scoresheet. That's not a month.  Nor is it his fault he's taken out of the lineup (Gallants words).

[The Dude]

3 minutes ago, Pete said:

 

Point is neither is as good as Prucha. 

I was partial to Prucha, but switched to Hlavac when Prucha dried up. 

[BrooksBurner]

36 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I don't care which one plays, but neither deserves more praise than the other.

 

The guy with 5 goals in 24 games on 9 min a night deserves a significant amount more praise than a guy with 0 goals in 30 games on 10 a night. I don't see how that's really debatable.

[BrooksBurner]

43 minutes ago, Pete said:

 

Guys you're arguing over the 12th and 13th forward. 

 

This conversation is slated for August and September, not December and January. 

 

Actually it's exactly the conversation required now, because the 4th line was awful out of the gate which was a major issue last year also. Zero depth. Zero ability to run 4 lines out there.

 

For now, it seems the move away from Reaves, Carpenter, and now potentially Blais, followed by filling it with some combination of Goodrow/Kravtsov, Brodzinski, and Gauthier is a significantly more productive 4th line.

[Keirik]

26 minutes ago, The Dude said:

He's been scratched for how many straight? Can't disappear when you aren't playing. Numbers are there. At the most hes gone 5 games played without getting on the scoresheet. That's not a month.  Nor is it his fault he's taken out of the lineup (Gallants words).

I think you gotta pump the brakes just a little bit. He had a great game yesterday. He’s had a couple of “great” games this year, but prior to last night, he had 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 10 games. Not the Rangers last 10. His last 10. If you want to extrapolate further, the last 10 before that of his is 2 goals and 0 assists. He’s failed to register a shot on goal in  12 of the 24 games he has played.  Please don’t come back with his bits because his hits are about as effective as Jimmy Vesey hits. They aren’t punishing type hits.

 

    Now having said that, he has gotten a slight raw deal from Gallant this season. He should play more often than Blais. In a perfect world, Gauthier gets a nice little niche role with Goodrow and whoever else like Johnny Polish on the 4th line as an energy line. I don’t really see how Gauthier long term would fit on Ziby or Panarins line but who knows. Stranger things have happened. 

[Drew a Penalty]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

I just think it's not enough of a sample size, you don't often see such a low CF with such a high PDO.

 

Basically it's just too hard to make a determination.

 

@Drew a Penalty maybe can help. 

 

We'll call this the "Power of Shesty."

 

Gauthier has been outchanced in every possible metric. It's not uncommon to see a bad CF% but better FF% and/or SF% — that would just mean shots aren't going on goal against so much as they're being attempted. Gauthier's FF% (41.73) and SF% (40.46) are both lower than his CF% (45.48), though, so that's ruled out.

 

The next thing I'd look at is quality of chances. Maybe he's still outchancing in terms of shot quality, but the data rules that out too. 44.87 HDCF%, 42.86 MDCF%, 45.21 LDCF%. It's just that somehow his actual production outperforms his expected. 54.55 HDGF%, 66.67 MDGF%, 50 LDGF%. So this part tracks with his PDO because that's a product of SH% (14.29) and SV% (92.23).

 

 

He's getting some pretty favorable competition despite mostly defensive zone starts.

[josh]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

 

Guys you're arguing over the 12th and 13th forward. 

 

This conversation is slated for August and September, not December and January. 

 

no. We fight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[josh]

Let’s hope this game gets him going. 

[RangersIn7]

8 hours ago, Keirik said:

I think you gotta pump the brakes just a little bit. He had a great game yesterday. He’s had a couple of “great” games this year, but prior to last night, he had 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 10 games. Not the Rangers last 10. His last 10. If you want to extrapolate further, the last 10 before that of his is 2 goals and 0 assists. He’s failed to register a shot on goal in  12 of the 24 games he has played.  Please don’t come back with his bits because his hits are about as effective as Jimmy Vesey hits. They aren’t punishing type hits.

 

    Now having said that, he has gotten a slight raw deal from Gallant this season. He should play more often than Blais. In a perfect world, Gauthier gets a nice little niche role with Goodrow and whoever else like Johnny Polish on the 4th line as an energy line. I don’t really see how Gauthier long term would fit on Ziby or Panarins line but who knows. Stranger things have happened. 

Kind of how I feel too. 
 

He’s totally shown noticeable improvement this season, and he’s gotten good results. But they’ve been sporadic, at least in terms of them showing up on the scoresheet. 
 

Really, as you said, he’s had a couple of nice games and a few very impressive moments in those games this season. 
 

Yes. He’s been better. 
His production vs playing time has been good. 
He deserves to play more.

Id like to see him not only stay in the lineup for a minute, but also get some more ice time, and some opportunities with the better talent on the roster. 

 

But I don’t want to make an assessment until I see that. 

[The Dude]

7 hours ago, Keirik said:

I think you gotta pump the brakes just a little bit. He had a great game yesterday. He’s had a couple of “great” games this year, but prior to last night, he had 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 10 games. Not the Rangers last 10. His last 10. If you want to extrapolate further, the last 10 before that of his is 2 goals and 0 assists. He’s failed to register a shot on goal in  12 of the 24 games he has played.  Please don’t come back with his bits because his hits are about as effective as Jimmy Vesey hits. They aren’t punishing type hits.

 

    Now having said that, he has gotten a slight raw deal from Gallant this season. He should play more often than Blais. In a perfect world, Gauthier gets a nice little niche role with Goodrow and whoever else like Johnny Polish on the 4th line as an energy line. I don’t really see how Gauthier long term would fit on Ziby or Panarins line but who knows. Stranger things have happened. 

The 4th liner is producing at a good pace for a 4th liner. If he plays, he could finish the season with 10-15 goals. 

 

OK? 

Ok

 

He currently has the same amount of goals as Lafreniere, in a significantly smaller role and much less games, with inconsistent linemates.

 

I'll come back with his hits. They are effective and usually of the bigger variety.  I don't know where you come up with them being ineffective. You also have to wonder who is tabulating these stats. Blais with 100? Lafrenière with 69? Goodrow only has 51? Lindgren 38?

 

I'm not pumping the brakes. 5 goals, 3 assists in 24 games. 8.50 TOA at the halfway mark. Same amount of goals as our 1OA. There's either something good there or there's something extremely wrong with the 1OA. Or both. I think it's both. 

 

 

 

 

[The Dude]

8 hours ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

We'll call this the "Power of Shesty."

 

Gauthier has been outchanced in every possible metric. It's not uncommon to see a bad CF% but better FF% and/or SF% — that would just mean shots aren't going on goal against so much as they're being attempted. Gauthier's FF% (41.73) and SF% (40.46) are both lower than his CF% (45.48), though, so that's ruled out.

 

The next thing I'd look at is quality of chances. Maybe he's still outchancing in terms of shot quality, but the data rules that out too. 44.87 HDCF%, 42.86 MDCF%, 45.21 LDCF%. It's just that somehow his actual production outperforms his expected. 54.55 HDGF%, 66.67 MDGF%, 50 LDGF%. So this part tracks with his PDO because that's a product of SH% (14.29) and SV% (92.23).

 

 

He's getting some pretty favorable competition despite mostly defensive zone starts.

This could all be relative to him playing mostly with Carpenter and Blais or who ever the LW was on the 4th line. I could be missing it but Blais isn't on that chart.

 

If one guy out of three produces good chances (which is obvious as we all complain that he doesn't convert enough on his golden opportunities that are usually created by himself), you can kinda blame the trajectory on his horrible linemates.

 

Is there a way to see all this for AFTER Carpenter was waived? I'm going on assumption that it will look better. I could be wrong.  I appreciate you digging into this BTW. 

[Pete]

9 hours ago, rmc51 said:

 

Actually it's exactly the conversation required now, because the 4th line was awful out of the gate which was a major issue last year also. Zero depth. Zero ability to run 4 lines out there.

 

For now, it seems the move away from Reaves, Carpenter, and now potentially Blais, followed by filling it with some combination of Goodrow/Kravtsov, Brodzinski, and Gauthier is a significantly more productive 4th line.

[Pete]

8 hours ago, josh said:

 

no. We fight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guess we may as well fight now, cuz both of these guys are so bad that neither is likely to be on the team next year. 

[Pete]

10 hours ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

We'll call this the "Power of Shesty."

 

Gauthier has been outchanced in every possible metric. It's not uncommon to see a bad CF% but better FF% and/or SF% — that would just mean shots aren't going on goal against so much as they're being attempted. Gauthier's FF% (41.73) and SF% (40.46) are both lower than his CF% (45.48), though, so that's ruled out.

 

The next thing I'd look at is quality of chances. Maybe he's still outchancing in terms of shot quality, but the data rules that out too. 44.87 HDCF%, 42.86 MDCF%, 45.21 LDCF%. It's just that somehow his actual production outperforms his expected. 54.55 HDGF%, 66.67 MDGF%, 50 LDGF%. So this part tracks with his PDO because that's a product of SH% (14.29) and SV% (92.23).

 

 

He's getting some pretty favorable competition despite mostly defensive zone starts.

So you're saying he sucks? 

[RJWantsTheCup]

I would like Cuylle given a chance on the 4th line with Goodrow at center and Gauthier/Blais at RW.  Leave Kravtsov with Panarin and Zibanejad.  Whenever either Gauthier or Blais disappears you put the other one in for a few games. 

[Keirik]

6 hours ago, The Dude said:

The 4th liner is producing at a good pace for a 4th liner. If he plays, he could finish the season with 10-15 goals. 

 

OK? 

Ok

 

He currently has the same amount of goals as Lafreniere, in a significantly smaller role and much less games, with inconsistent linemates.

 

I'll come back with his hits. They are effective and usually of the bigger variety.  I don't know where you come up with them being ineffective. You also have to wonder who is tabulating these stats. Blais with 100? Lafrenière with 69? Goodrow only has 51? Lindgren 38?

 

I'm not pumping the brakes. 5 goals, 3 assists in 24 games. 8.50 TOA at the halfway mark. Same amount of goals as our 1OA. There's either something good there or there's something extremely wrong with the 1OA. Or both. I think it's both. 

 

 

 

 

So everyone else that hits are lesser hits, calculated incorrectly, but Gauthiers are all effective hits. To be honest, I cant remember that many of Gauthiers hits to use is as something tangible. He's not Trouba like.  

 

Laf should play more than Gauthier. He's a better player. 19 goals last year. Thats more than Gauthiers entire career. Julien is starting to come around a bit but as I said, I think you're getting way ahead of yourself. 

 

[RangersIn7]

7 hours ago, The Dude said:

The 4th liner is producing at a good pace for a 4th liner. If he plays, he could finish the season with 10-15 goals. 

 

OK? 

Ok

 

He currently has the same amount of goals as Lafreniere, in a significantly smaller role and much less games, with inconsistent linemates.

 

I'll come back with his hits. They are effective and usually of the bigger variety.  I don't know where you come up with them being ineffective. You also have to wonder who is tabulating these stats. Blais with 100? Lafrenière with 69? Goodrow only has 51? Lindgren 38?

 

I'm not pumping the brakes. 5 goals, 3 assists in 24 games. 8.50 TOA at the halfway mark. Same amount of goals as our 1OA. There's either something good there or there's something extremely wrong with the 1OA. Or both. I think it's both. 

 

 

 

 

There’s nothing wrong with LaFreniere. This is what should’ve been expected when you put it in its proper context and consider the circumstances of his development here.

 

Here we are with Chytil and Kakko, really starting to blossom in front of our eyes. I don’t believe LaFreniere is all that far behind. Still see him as a player that’s very much still learning. He does need to shed some of that baby fat and improve his skating. 

 

It’s not instant coffee. Guys get there when they get there. 
 

I will say that there very well could be something there with Gauthier. He should totally be in the lineup over Blais and get opportunities. 
 

Im just nowhere near convinced to that degree yet. 
 

 

[Drew a Penalty]

7 hours ago, The Dude said:

This could all be relative to him playing mostly with Carpenter and Blais or who ever the LW was on the 4th line. I could be missing it but Blais isn't on that chart.

 

If one guy out of three produces good chances (which is obvious as we all complain that he doesn't convert enough on his golden opportunities that are usually created by himself), you can kinda blame the trajectory on his horrible linemates.

 

Is there a way to see all this for AFTER Carpenter was waived? I'm going on assumption that it will look better. I could be wrong.  I appreciate you digging into this BTW. 

 

 

I'm assuming Blais is off the chart because his QoC is even lower than Carpenter and Gauthier that it's not within the boundaries. 

 

As for Gauthier's linemates, there are four combinations that have enough ice time ( > 25 Min) worth looking at, but I'll include the most recent game as a fifth even though it's a very small sample.

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier

 

56:58 TOI, 47.83 CF%, 40.0 FF%, 40.0 SF%, 60.0 GF%, 38.76 xGF%, 36.84 HDCF%, 15 SH%, 93.33 SV%

 

Blais-Brodzinski-Gauthier

 

29:19 TOI, 44.0 CF%, 44.4 FF%, 44.0 SF%, 100.0 GF%, 42.17 xGF%, 57.14 HDCF%, 10 SH%, 100.0 SV%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

32:13 TOI, 43.64 CF%, 40.48 FF%, 42.86 SF%, 0.0 GF%, 55.08 xGF%, 50.0 HDCF%, 0.0 SH%, 87.5 SV%

 

Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

25:34 TOI, 50.0 CF%, 42.31 FF%, 46.67 SF%, 66.67 GF%, 39.64 xGF%, 55.56 HDCF%, 28.57 SH%, 87.5 SV%

 

Brodzinski-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

5:31 TOI, 80.0 CF%, 75.0 FF%, 100.0 SF%, 100.0 GF%, 64.0 xGF%, 100.0 HDCF%, 40.0 SH%, -  SV%  (No shots against)

 

Basically, with the exception of the most recent game, Gauthier's line is outchanced regardless of the composition. He's still outscoring the opposition versus what's expected.

 

It definitely seems like he generates more offense with Goodrow on his line. Even in the case of Vesey being on that line, despite being outchanced and outscored, they generated higher quality chances than the opposition.

 

There's not significant enough difference between Carpenter and Brodzinski with Blais and Gauthier flanking. That 100 GF% isn't that spectacular when you really see it as 1 GF and 0 GA. With Carpenter they had 3 GF and 2 GA.

[Long live the King]

25 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

 

I'm assuming Blais is off the chart because his QoC is even lower than Carpenter and Gauthier that it's not within the boundaries. 

 

As for Gauthier's linemates, there are four combinations that have enough ice time ( > 25 Min) worth looking at, but I'll include the most recent game as a fifth even though it's a very small sample.

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier

 

56:58 TOI, 47.83 CF%, 40.0 FF%, 40.0 SF%, 60.0 GF%, 38.76 xGF%, 36.84 HDCF%, 15 SH%, 93.33 SV%

 

Blais-Brodzinski-Gauthier

 

29:19 TOI, 44.0 CF%, 44.4 FF%, 44.0 SF%, 100.0 GF%, 42.17 xGF%, 57.14 HDCF%, 10 SH%, 100.0 SV%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

32:13 TOI, 43.64 CF%, 40.48 FF%, 42.86 SF%, 0.0 GF%, 55.08 xGF%, 50.0 HDCF%, 0.0 SH%, 87.5 SV%

 

Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

25:34 TOI, 50.0 CF%, 42.31 FF%, 46.67 SF%, 66.67 GF%, 39.64 xGF%, 55.56 HDCF%, 28.57 SH%, 87.5 SV%

 

Brodzinski-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

5:31 TOI, 80.0 CF%, 75.0 FF%, 100.0 SF%, 100.0 GF%, 64.0 xGF%, 100.0 HDCF%, 40.0 SH%, -  SV%  (No shots against)

 

Basically, with the exception of the most recent game, Gauthier's line is outchanced regardless of the composition. He's still outscoring the opposition versus what's expected.

 

It definitely seems like he generates more offense with Goodrow on his line. Even in the case of Vesey being on that line, despite being outchanced and outscored, they generated higher quality chances than the opposition.

 

There's not significant enough difference between Carpenter and Brodzinski with Blais and Gauthier flanking. That 100 GF% isn't that spectacular when you really see it as 1 GF and 0 GA. With Carpenter they had 3 GF and 2 GA.

 

So basically Goody on the 4th line is the difference maker.  The other 2 are all interchangeable. 

[Pete]

5 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

So basically Goody on the 4th line is the difference maker.  The other 2 are all interchangeable. 

Which is bonkers because Goody iCF isn't good... 

[Drew a Penalty]

17 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

So basically Goody on the 4th line is the difference maker.  The other 2 are all interchangeable. 

Basically, yes.

[Drew a Penalty]

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

Which is bonkers because Goody iCF isn't good... 

 

Which just means he’s not a direct contributor to those attempts but could be facilitating. Without knowing what his shot assist totals are, it’s hard to make that determination. But I think it’s a logical assumption. 

[Pete]

19 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

Basically, yes.

So then @Long live the Kingand @The Dude can stop now. 

[Long live the King]