The Julien Gauthier Redemption Tour?

[The Dude]

3 hours ago, Keirik said:

So everyone else that hits are lesser hits, calculated incorrectly, but Gauthiers are all effective hits. To be honest, I cant remember that many of Gauthiers hits to use is as something tangible. He's not Trouba like.  

 

Laf should play more than Gauthier. He's a better player. 19 goals last year. Thats more than Gauthiers entire career. Julien is starting to come around a bit but as I said, I think you're getting way ahead of yourself. 

 

I don't even understand what you're talking about with the hits. You deemed his hits ineffective.  I disagreed. Now you're turning that into me saying Gauthier is on par with Trouba? Like how did you get there with this?

 

I'm miffed about the amount of hits that are put on a score card, especially for certain players. I legit can not think of one hit from Blais. Yet he has 100? Our rigid top pairing LD Lindgren has 30 something? It seems off. Much like the insanely low number of giveaways that don't get credited to Panarin.  The judgement really seems off by those who are tabulating the stats this season.  Is this where your comment stems from? Because I still don't understand what you’re getting ar. 

 

Lafrenière has 5 goals this year. I'm not talking about last year. Lafrenière has also gotten more time with better linemates this season.  5 goals. 

 

5.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by The Dude

[The Dude]

54 minutes ago, Pete said:

So then @Long live the Kingand @The Dude can stop now. 

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

 

I'm assuming Blais is off the chart because his QoC is even lower than Carpenter and Gauthier that it's not within the boundaries. 

 

As for Gauthier's linemates, there are four combinations that have enough ice time ( > 25 Min) worth looking at, but I'll include the most recent game as a fifth even though it's a very small sample.

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier

 

56:58 TOI, 47.83 CF%, 40.0 FF%, 40.0 SF%, 60.0 GF%, 38.76 xGF%, 36.84 HDCF%, 15 SH%, 93.33 SV%

 

Blais-Brodzinski-Gauthier

 

29:19 TOI, 44.0 CF%, 44.4 FF%, 44.0 SF%, 100.0 GF%, 42.17 xGF%, 57.14 HDCF%, 10 SH%, 100.0 SV%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

32:13 TOI, 43.64 CF%, 40.48 FF%, 42.86 SF%, 0.0 GF%, 55.08 xGF%, 50.0 HDCF%, 0.0 SH%, 87.5 SV%

 

Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

25:34 TOI, 50.0 CF%, 42.31 FF%, 46.67 SF%, 66.67 GF%, 39.64 xGF%, 55.56 HDCF%, 28.57 SH%, 87.5 SV%

 

Brodzinski-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

5:31 TOI, 80.0 CF%, 75.0 FF%, 100.0 SF%, 100.0 GF%, 64.0 xGF%, 100.0 HDCF%, 40.0 SH%, -  SV%  (No shots against)

 

Basically, with the exception of the most recent game, Gauthier's line is outchanced regardless of the composition. He's still outscoring the opposition versus what's expected.

 

It definitely seems like he generates more offense with Goodrow on his line. Even in the case of Vesey being on that line, despite being outchanced and outscored, they generated higher quality chances than the opposition.

 

There's not significant enough difference between Carpenter and Brodzinski with Blais and Gauthier flanking. That 100 GF% isn't that spectacular when you really see it as 1 GF and 0 GA. With Carpenter they had 3 GF and 2 GA.

Thank you for making sense of the stats and for doing the leg work. 

 

When you say outchanced, is this just shots against or quality shots against? I honestly don't really ever recall our 4th line (without Reaves) being picked apart and trapped in their own end. There's a lot of variables that I honestly don't understand, with a lot of these stats. 

 

So, if they are giving up crappy chances (regardless of it they make it to the net) yet they break the other way off a blocked shot or shot wide, is that a scoring chance against? 

[Keirik]

30 minutes ago, The Dude said:

I don't even understand what you're talking about with the hits. You deemed his hits ineffective.  I disagreed. Now you're turning that into me saying Gauthier is on par with Trouba? Like how did you get there with this?

 

I'm miffed about the amount of hits that are put on a score card, especially for certain players. I legit can not think of one hit from Blais. Yet he has 100? Our rigid top pairing LD Lindgren has 30 something? It seems off. Much like the insanely low number of giveaways that don't get credited to Panarin.  The judgement really seems off by those who are tabulating the stats this season.  Is this where your comment stems from? Because I still don't understand what you’re getting ar. 

 

Lafrenière has 5 goals this year. I'm not talking about last year. Lafrenière has also gotten more time with better linemates this season.  5 goals. 

 

5.

 

 

I'm not sure what's confusing you or making you feel miffed. I'm explaining to you that I don't see anything special out of the physical side of his game so im not sure why you brought it up in the first place. I didn't bring up hits. You did. I think his hits don't add very much value. In other words, I view the physical side of his game as much as I view Veseys physical side. Nothing to write home about. 

 

I don't care how many of exactly the same goals he has right now as Laf. He's not Laf and the franchise values laf as part of their future more than Gauthier. What gets me in a curfuffle is that you acknowledge Alf likely gets a healthy pay raise this coming ofaeason but want Gauthier taking his minutes? Huh? Cant go both ways on that one.  A

You also csnt ignore how one players pedigree alone pits him above Gaut and did nearly score 20 goals a year before. You don't just ignore all of that. 

[RangersIn7]

Bottom line is that up until now, he really hasn’t played well enough to warrant discussion. 
 

He’s been in and out of the lineup and playing very limited minutes prior because of his play. Under 2 coaches. 
 

Im glad he’s playing well and I think he’s rounded into something. 
 

But it needs to at least sustain if not improve. 

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, Keirik said:

I'm not sure what's confusing you or making you feel miffed. I'm explaining to you that I don't see anything special out of the physical side of his game so im not sure why you brought it up in the first place. I didn't bring up hits. You did. I think his hits don't add very much value. In other words, I view the physical side of his game as much as I view Veseys physical side. Nothing to write home about. 

 

I don't care how many of exactly the same goals he has right now as Laf. He's not Laf and the franchise values laf as part of their future more than Gauthier. What gets me in a curfuffle is that you acknowledge Alf likely gets a healthy pay raise this coming ofaeason but want Gauthier taking his minutes? Huh? Cant go both ways on that one.  A

You also csnt ignore how one players pedigree alone pits him above Gaut and did nearly score 20 goals a year before. You don't just ignore all of that. 

I don’t know why this “lost faith” in LaFreniere?

 

Dont get it.

 

Weve all watched them all improve into good hockey players.

 

It doesn’t all come at once.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by RangersIn7

[BrooksBurner]

18 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

I don’t know why this “lost faith” in LaFreniere?

 

Dont get it.

 

Weve all watched them all improve into good hockey players.

 

It doesn’t all come at once.

 

 

1 OAs have different expectations of a special excellence attached. He shows the potential to be a decent to good player. Not special.

[Drew a Penalty]

5 hours ago, The Dude said:

Thank you for making sense of the stats and for doing the leg work. 

 

When you say outchanced, is this just shots against or quality shots against? I honestly don't really ever recall our 4th line (without Reaves) being picked apart and trapped in their own end. There's a lot of variables that I honestly don't understand, with a lot of these stats. 

 

 

It's a combination of both. CF% (Goals + Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots),  FF% (Goals + Shots + Missed Shots), and SF% (Goals + Shots) all account for shooting attempts against without making note of quality. HDCF% (High Danger Chances), MDCF% (Mid Danger Chances), and LDCF% (Low Danger Chances) account for quality of chances. 

 

As mentioned before, Gauthier, regardless of linemates, had a 44.87 HDCF%, 42.86 MDCF%, 45.21 LDCF%. That means he's been outchanced on shots of any quality for all 5v5 minutes he's played. I didn't break down the MDCF% and LDCF% for the different line combinations, just HDCF%, but I'll do those now that I've got a moment.

 

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier

 

56:58 TOI, (7 for/12 against) 36.84 HDCF%, (18 for/23 against) 43.90 MDCF%,  (21 for/19 against) 52.50 LDCF%

 

Blais-Brodzinski-Gauthier

 

29:19 TOI, (4 for/3 against) 57.14 HDCF%, (5 for/10 against) 33.33 MDCF%, (11 for/11 against) 50.0 LDCF%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

32:13 TOI, (8 for/8 against) 50.0 HDCF%, (8 for/6 against) 57.4 MDCF%, (6 for/14 against) 30.0 LDCF%

 

Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

25:34 TOI, (5 for/4 against) 55.56 HDCF%, (8 for/7 against), (6 for/10 against) 37.50 LDCF%

 

Brodzinski-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

5:31 TOI, (2 for/0 against) 100.0 HDCF%, (2 for/2 against) 50.0 MDCF%, (2 for/0 against) 100.0 LDCF%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier and Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier support your theory of giving up mostly low danger chances while getting more high and medium danger chances than the opposition. But you can see they're not decisively in their favor either, considering they only have at most 2 more chances than the opposition. It's kind of a neutral impact, really.

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier and Blais-Brodzinksi-Gauthier don't, however, support that. But you can definitely say that there's a shift towards higher quality chances without Carpenter.

 

  

5 hours ago, The Dude said:

So, if they are giving up crappy chances (regardless of it they make it to the net) yet they break the other way off a blocked shot or shot wide, is that a scoring chance against? 

 

Unless taken in the High Danger Zone, what you've first described is a shot attempt. You'd measure that in either Corsi (Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots) or Fenwick (Goals + Shots + Missed Shots). In order for a shot attempt to be considered a scoring chance it needs to meet certain criteria.

 

War-on-Ice defines scoring chances as

 

Quote

• In the low danger zone, unblocked rebounds and rush shots only.
• In the medium danger zone, all unblocked shots.
• In the high danger zone, all shot attempts (since blocked shots taken here may be more representative of more “wide-open nets”, though we don’t know this for sure.)

 

The zones look like the following:

 

 

Rebounds and rush shots are weighed more heavily as described here:

 

Quote

• Rebounds: Any shot that follows within 3 seconds of a blocked, missed or saved shot. All have measurably higher probabilities of success in each of the three zones.
• Rush shots: Any shot that follows within 4 seconds of any event in the shooting team’s neutral or offensive zones. This is based on David Johnson‘s definition, but the four second threshold gave general and statistically significant increases in probability.

 

http://blog.war-on-ice.com/new-defining-scoring-chances/index.html

[Drew a Penalty]

7 hours ago, Pete said:

Which is bonkers because Goody iCF isn't good... 

 

So to go back and add some context here, Goodrow's iCF when compared to his iFF, iSF and iHDCF is actually pretty good. Let's look at the numbers:

 

67 iCF (14th on team), 49 iFF (13th), 47 iSF (9th), 28 iHDCF (5th)

 

Basically what that tells us is that Goodrow is conservative with his shot selection. He's not chucking because only 20 of his 67 shot attempts are blocked or missed. Of the 47 shots he did get on goal, 28 of them are high danger. That's actually pretty good.

 

Compare him to the ultimate chucker on the team in Trouba, who has the highest iCF by 47.

 

158 iCF (1st), 112 iFF (1st), 36 iSF (12th), 10 iHDCF (12th)

 

Obviously, Trouba and Goodrow are going to have different opportunities given their positions, but the point being you can't derive much from iCF alone. When you contextualize Goodrow's low iCF, you actually find a player making smart shot selections despite low volume. 

[Long live the King]

[Pete]

54 minutes ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

So to go back and add some context here, Goodrow's iCF when compared to his iFF, iSF and iHDCF is actually pretty good. Let's look at the numbers:

 

67 iCF (14th on team), 49 iFF (13th), 47 iSF (9th), 28 iHDCF (5th)

 

Basically what that tells us is that Goodrow is conservative with his shot selection. He's not chucking because only 20 of his 67 shot attempts are blocked or missed. Of the 47 shots he did get on goal, 28 of them are high danger. That's actually pretty good.

 

Compare him to the ultimate chucker on the team in Trouba, who has the highest iCF by 47.

 

158 iCF (1st), 112 iFF (1st), 36 iSF (12th), 10 iHDCF (12th)

 

Obviously, Trouba and Goodrow are going to have different opportunities given their positions, but the point being you can't derive much from iCF alone. When you contextualize Goodrow's low iCF, you actually find a player making smart shot selections despite low volume. 

Goody gives me an easy 4". 

[The Dude]

10 hours ago, Drew a Penalty said:

 

 

It's a combination of both. CF% (Goals + Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots),  FF% (Goals + Shots + Missed Shots), and SF% (Goals + Shots) all account for shooting attempts against without making note of quality. HDCF% (High Danger Chances), MDCF% (Mid Danger Chances), and LDCF% (Low Danger Chances) account for quality of chances. 

 

As mentioned before, Gauthier, regardless of linemates, had a 44.87 HDCF%, 42.86 MDCF%, 45.21 LDCF%. That means he's been outchanced on shots of any quality for all 5v5 minutes he's played. I didn't break down the MDCF% and LDCF% for the different line combinations, just HDCF%, but I'll do those now that I've got a moment.

 

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier

 

56:58 TOI, (7 for/12 against) 36.84 HDCF%, (18 for/23 against) 43.90 MDCF%,  (21 for/19 against) 52.50 LDCF%

 

Blais-Brodzinski-Gauthier

 

29:19 TOI, (4 for/3 against) 57.14 HDCF%, (5 for/10 against) 33.33 MDCF%, (11 for/11 against) 50.0 LDCF%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

32:13 TOI, (8 for/8 against) 50.0 HDCF%, (8 for/6 against) 57.4 MDCF%, (6 for/14 against) 30.0 LDCF%

 

Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

25:34 TOI, (5 for/4 against) 55.56 HDCF%, (8 for/7 against), (6 for/10 against) 37.50 LDCF%

 

Brodzinski-Goodrow-Gauthier

 

5:31 TOI, (2 for/0 against) 100.0 HDCF%, (2 for/2 against) 50.0 MDCF%, (2 for/0 against) 100.0 LDCF%

 

Vesey-Goodrow-Gauthier and Blais-Goodrow-Gauthier support your theory of giving up mostly low danger chances while getting more high and medium danger chances than the opposition. But you can see they're not decisively in their favor either, considering they only have at most 2 more chances than the opposition. It's kind of a neutral impact, really.

 

Blais-Carpenter-Gauthier and Blais-Brodzinksi-Gauthier don't, however, support that. But you can definitely say that there's a shift towards higher quality chances without Carpenter.

 

  

 

Unless taken in the High Danger Zone, what you've first described is a shot attempt. You'd measure that in either Corsi (Shots + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots) or Fenwick (Goals + Shots + Missed Shots). In order for a shot attempt to be considered a scoring chance it needs to meet certain criteria.

 

War-on-Ice defines scoring chances as

 

 

The zones look like the following:

 

 

Rebounds and rush shots are weighed more heavily as described here:

 

 

http://blog.war-on-ice.com/new-defining-scoring-chances/index.html

Honestly, that's a lot for me to process at the moment. I've had a few since I posted. I will revisit this tomorrow. But thanks a lot for trying to explain all of this and looking into all of my questions. Merry Christmas,  Hopefully this makes some sense to me tomorrow.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2022 by The Dude
Unnecessary rambling about hotel undesirables

[Keirik]

20 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Honestly, that's a lot for me to process at the moment. I've had a few since I posted. I will revisit this tomorrow. But thanks a lot for trying to explain all of this and looking into all of my questions. Merry Christmas,  Hopefully this makes some sense to me tomorrow.

 

In the meantime I'm at a hotel on LI, concerned about cars hanging out in the parking lot,

possibly ready to rob Christmas gifts from cars. But it's more likely prostitution like every other hotel Too bad Keirik retired (and was Nassau,  I'm in Suffolk). 

 

Man. Hotels are really fucking shady. Even good/decent ones like Hampton Inns or any "Hilton" brand. A lot of possibilities for illegal activities. But prostitution is just blatant and inexcusable for these places to not give a shit. 

 

Sorry. Off topic rant over. Should start a thread on the topic tomorrow. 

If you are even remotely concerned, there’s nothing wrong with calling 911 to have them check on a suspicious car or person in the neighborhood. 
Be safe. Where are you staying?  There are some hotels in decent areas in Suffolk. Some not so much so. 

[RangersIn7]

8 hours ago, rmc51 said:

1 OAs have different expectations of a special excellence attached. He shows the potential to be a decent to good player. Not special.

I guess I see what you’re saying. But the jury is still way out on him. And he hasn’t been in anywhere near the same circumstances as basically every other 1OVA. 
 

Guy LaFleur had a lot of struggles in his first several seasons too and did not live up to expectations early on. Buried behind other guys. Ice time limited. And about average stats for the era. 
 

Not making direct comparison. But there are some similarities. 

 

[The Dude]

6 hours ago, Keirik said:

If you are even remotely concerned, there’s nothing wrong with calling 911 to have them check on a suspicious car or person in the neighborhood. 
Be safe. Where are you staying?  There are some hotels in decent areas in Suffolk. Some not so much so. 

PMing you. I had a lot last night. Don't want to derail this awesome conversation. 

[The Dude]

Double post

Edited December 25, 2022 by The Dude

[SaveByRichter35]

@The Dudehow'd you end up making out?  Which hotel are you at?  FWIW I the two hotels near the Ronk train station are pretty decent.  Believe its a Marriott and a Hilton.  IIRC you used to live in the Centereach/Selden area?

[SaveByRichter35]

I do know the hotels around my job by MacArthur are shaaaaady as fuuuuuuck.  La Quinta on Johnson constantly has cops there, shame because its a nice looking hotel.  Clarion on Vets and Lakeland Inn on Lakeland have a ton of section 8 residents.  Stay away.

[The Dude]

2 hours ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

@The Dudehow'd you end up making out?  Which hotel are you at?  FWIW I the two hotels near the Ronk train station are pretty decent.  Believe its a Marriott and a Hilton.  IIRC you used to live in the Centereach/Selden area?

Was fine. Probably an overreaction to typical hotel seedyness.  I was at the Hampton Inn in Farmingville (wife booked it on accident,  thought it was the one by the movie theater off Nichols and the expressway). Decent enough place. Just wasn't in the mood for the people hanging out in the parking lot. 

 

I've stayed in one of those Ronkonkoma hotels.  Pretty good. Yeah, I lived in Centereach then Patchogue.  

 

Thanks for checking on me lol. 

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

I do know the hotels around my job by MacArthur are shaaaaady as fuuuuuuck.  La Quinta on Johnson constantly has cops there, shame because its a nice looking hotel.  Clarion on Vets and Lakeland Inn on Lakeland have a ton of section 8 residents.  Stay away.

Lmao, I stayed at that Clarion, in a pinch. What a shithole. 

[SaveByRichter35]

23 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Was fine. Probably an overreaction to typical hotel seedyness.  I was at the Hampton Inn in Farmingville (wife booked it on accident,  thought it was the one by the movie theater off Nichols and the expressway). Decent enough place. Just wasn't in the mood for the people hanging out in the parking lot. 

 

I've stayed in one of those Ronkonkoma hotels.  Pretty good. Yeah, I lived in Centereach then Patchogue.  

 

Thanks for checking on me lol. 

I don't remember if the Hampton the one with the restaurant on the south side of the LIE or the one on the north side by the assisted living center but that restaurant has excellent Sunday football deals.  The name escapes me though.

[BrooksBurner]

30 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Lmao, I stayed at that Clarion, in a pinch. What a shithole. 

I just looked at the Google street view and, yeah, it looks like a shithole

[The Dude]

4 hours ago, SaveByRichter35 said:

I don't remember if the Hampton the one with the restaurant on the south side of the LIE or the one on the north side by the assisted living center but that restaurant has excellent Sunday football deals.  The name escapes me though.

This was North side, next to assisted living.  

 

South side restaurant I think is called Sonoma Grill?

[Scott]

still thumbing through the history books, so far I've gone back 45+ years and haven't found a Guy LaFleur @ 1OA, I'll keep digging.

[Keirik]

2 hours ago, The Dude said:

This was North side, next to assisted living.  

 

South side restaurant I think is called Sonoma Grill?

I used to know a dude that used to live out of his car and sleep in the Sonoma Grill parking lot lol