GDT [RS #12] Rangers vs Boston Bruins — Carb Loading

[Pete]

6 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

HDCA and xGA is only half the picture from last year. The major issue on top of that was that they weren’t generating as many chances as their opponent. Hence all of the xGF%, Corsi, HDCF% were trash last year. They were bottom 8-12 in each of those last year and we heard about it relentlessly. Their conversion of their fewer scoring chances was very high though so they were winning games. This year it’s the reverse. They are top 5-9 in all of those categories yet bottom 10 in actual GF%.

 

They should be easily outscoring their opponents in most games regardless of chances given up. They haven’t converted, and just like you harped on last year about the underlying data catching up to them and they weren’t as good as the record, it’s the same here except the underlying data says it should be resulting in a lot more goals and wins right now. Their record should be better, and their play warrants it. They’ll start converting at some point and outscoring teams rather than your presumed expectation that they should be outdefending them instead. That’s not how the team is built.

 

I said it in another thread somewhere, but they are the Florida Panthers/Edmonton Oilers with Igor in net. Excellent scoring chances that should be going in just haven’t. They have to stick to their game and it will start to show.

Well, no team with trash defense has won anything in recent memory, so until they clean that up, I don't have high hopes.

 

They have beaten Tampa who has started slow, Minny who is a .500 club, the Ducks who are bad, Dallas who is pretty good, Arizona who is awful and that game was too close, and Philly who shouldn't be good, but somehow have a good record—by 1 goal.

 

Their most "encouraging" game was a loss the Colorado where they gave up 20 shots in the first. They got worked by the Jackets and then got worked again last night. These are not hallmarks of a team hungry for a long playoff run.

[Long live the King]

12 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

HDCA and xGA is only half the picture from last year. The major issue on top of that was that they weren’t generating as many chances as their opponent. Hence all of the xGF%, Corsi, HDCF% were trash last year. They were bottom 8-12 in each of those last year and we heard about it relentlessly. Their conversion of their fewer scoring chances was very high though so they were winning games. This year it’s the reverse. They are top 5-9 in all of those categories yet bottom 10 in actual GF%.

 

They should be easily outscoring their opponents in most games regardless of chances given up. They haven’t converted, and just like you harped on last year about the underlying data catching up to them and they weren’t as good as the record, it’s the same here except the underlying data says it should be resulting in a lot more goals and wins right now. Their record should be better, and their play warrants it. They’ll start converting at some point and outscoring teams rather than your presumed expectation that they should be outdefending them instead. That’s not how the team is built.

 

I said it in another thread somewhere, but they are the Florida Panthers/Edmonton Oilers with Igor in net. Excellent scoring chances that should be going in just haven’t. They have to stick to their game and it will start to show.

 

Their next stretch of DET, NYI, DET, NSH, ARI, SEA, SJS, LAK, ANH should help those flood gates open.  Outside of the Isles they're all in the bottom 13 for GA.

[Pete]

4 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

Their next stretch of DET, NYI, DET, NSH, ARI, SEA, SJS, LAK, ANH should help those flood gates open.  Outside of the Isles they're all in the bottom 13 for GA.

So that will prove what, that they can beat bad teams? That's my problem with this. Unless they gain a massive amount of confidence that they can take against the top teams in the league, I don't care if they can beat the dregs of the league.

 

Of course, at the same time, I admit points are points and I've said already once you're in the playoffs, it's just a race to 16 wins by hook or by crook, but this team is not like the Avalanche, for example. Regardless of how "tightly" contested their one game was.

[BrooksBurner]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Well, no team with trash defense has won anything in recent memory, so until they clean that up, I don't have high hopes.

 

They have beaten Tampa who has started slow, Minny who is a .500 club, the Ducks who are bad, Dallas who is pretty good, Arizona who is awful and that game was too close, and Philly who shouldn't be good, but somehow have a good record—by 1 goal.

 

Their most "encouraging" game was a loss the Colorado where they gave up 20 shots in the first. They got worked by the Jackets and then got worked again last night. These are not hallmarks of a team hungry for a long playoff run.

I don’t even disagree with you that they are giving up loads of chances. It’s up to the Rangers to establish a new trend with what they’ve got. I’m not sure I’ve seen a potent offensive team with a goalie like Igor. Perhaps a new trend can be established here. Everyone wants to be a copycat rather than blazing new paths to success.

[Long live the King]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

So that will prove what, that they can beat bad teams? That's my problem with this. Unless they gain a massive amount of confidence that they can take against the top teams in the league, I don't care if they can beat the dregs of the league.

 

Of course, at the same time, I admit points are points and I've said already once you're in the playoffs, it's just a race to 16 wins by hook or by crook, but this team is not like the Avalanche, for example. Regardless of how "tightly" contested their one game was.

 

I think the confidence part is huge.  They're super frustrated right now.  They are 3rd in the league in HDCF, while at the same time having the 3rd worst shooting % in those situations.  141 HDC and only converted on 13.  If the were converting around 21% of those like the top third of the league they'd have 17 more goals, which is probably a few more wins, and they would be playing more relaxed and confident.  

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

4 minutes ago, Pete said:

So that will prove what, that they can beat bad teams? That's my problem with this. Unless they gain a massive amount of confidence that they can take against the top teams in the league, I don't care if they can beat the dregs of the league.

 

14 minutes ago, Pete said:

They have beaten Tampa who has started slow, Minny who is a .500 club, the Ducks who are bad, Dallas who is pretty good

So win against Tampa and Dallas. Tight loss against Avs and a disappointing loss (with a reduced squad) against a really good Bruins teams that's on a roll. All while having good underlying numbers that you constantly complained about last season even though they were winning.

 

That's 2-2 against "good teams" while having a lot of bad luck and been struggling a bit with injuries.

 

And it's so funny because you use the same arguments as last season when things are actually completely opposite. Last year they were playing bad, but got lucky and saved by Igor. So far this season they've actually played very well, but have had bad luck and ran into hot goalies (and Igor's had a bad start).

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, rmc51 said:

I don’t even disagree with you that they are giving up loads of chances. It’s up to the Rangers to establish a new trend with what they’ve got. I’m not sure I’ve seen a potent offensive team with a goalie like Igor. Perhaps a new trend can be established here. Everyone wants to be a copycat rather than blazing new paths to success.

Fair enough. And there's plenty of time to turn it around.

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, Long live the King said:

 

I think the confidence part is huge.  They're super frustrated right now.  They are 3rd in the league in HDCF, while at the same time having the 3rd worst shooting % in those situations.  141 HDC and only converted on 13.  If the were converting around 21% of those like the top third of the league they'd have 17 more goals, which is probably a few more wins, and they would be playing more relaxed and confident.  

Fair enough here, too. Let's see how it all plays out.

[jsm7302]

Bruins look good and physical. I like the way they play. After puck drop it was obvious it was going to be a battle. Losing Lindgren was tough.