How Can/Will the Rangers Keep Chytil?

[The Dude]

22 hours ago, Keirik said:

We don’t have cap problems. I’m not sure where this is coming from. We have a tad under 17m as it is in cap space next offseason. 
we need

1. a backup G

2. Resign an RFA Miller with no leverage

3. Halak? Ok so we need a new 6th D

4. Reup Chytil with arb rights

5. LaFreniere RFA

6. Kravtsov with arb rights

7. Gauthier with arb rights

8. Replace Blais/Vesey

 

lets ballpark things. If Chytil gets 5m on an arb deal, regardless of years, a backup goalie for 2m , laf at exactly what Kakko got at 2.1, Key gets 2.5m,  you’re talking about  a tad under 12m for those guys. That leaves 4-5m for a 6th d, 4th line fwd, and likely a Kravtsov replacement or arb offer that won’t be anywhere near high. gets tight where you find a Blais/Vesey guy but if the cap only goes up 1m as predicted, there will be plenty of value guys still out there. 
 

 

I don't see a world where the Rangers can get Lafrenière or Miller to sign for less than 4 mill each. But I guess you save on Kravtsov,  because I don't think he is in the organization next year. 

 

Chytil, Lafrenière and Miller is going to run you roughly 13 mill. 4 mill to spend on a back up goalie  3 forward spots and 2- D man (6/7) probably doesn't cut it.  With Othmann (IMO) crashing through the door, it's going to be too crowded for talent to develop.  

Edited December 15, 2022 by The Dude

[Keirik]

6 minutes ago, The Dude said:

I don't see a world where the Rangers can get Lafrenière or Miller to sign for less than 5 mill each. But I guess you save on Kravtsov,  because I don't think he is in the organization next year. 

 

Chytil, Lafrenière and Miller is going to run you roughly 13 mill. 4 mill to spend on a back up goalie  3 forward spots and 2- D man (6/7) probably doesn't cut it.  With Othmann (IMO) crashing through the door, it's going to be too crowded for talent to develop.  

What are you basing that on? At this pace? There is zero chance that Alf’s or Keys next contract are anywhere near 5m. They have no leverage, no arb rights, and aren’t pacing anything earth shattering to make the Rangers not just go with a standard 2nd contract. . The only real worry would be some other team possibly poaching. 

[Sod16]

13 minutes ago, The Dude said:

I don't see a world where the Rangers can get Lafrenière or Miller to sign for less than 5 mill each.

 

In a world where Kakko signed a two year bridge at $2.1m per, Miller, and especially LaF, can be bridged for significantly less than $5m per.

[The Dude]

12 hours ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'm not taking that at face value, because trading Lafreniere is a fool's errand. He's on an ELC. Moving him doesn't fix the cap crunch because he's simply not going to get too big a contract. He's still wildly talented as is evident when he's given ice time. There's nothing you can do - short of something crazy like Anaheim calling up and offering Conor Bedard - that actually makes trading him valuable to the franchise. To him? Yeah, possibly. But to the team? Nope.

 

The rest of this can be easily solved. Othmann's not a guarantee to make next years' team and neither is Cuylle, but assume they both make it. I don't think for a second that Cuylle or Kreider's games are meaningfully changed, nor do you lose value on them if they're right wings instead of left wings. 

 

It's far from a foregone conclusion, but it is awful asset management to move Lafreniere. 

 

Meh. He's back on the 1st line and once again is a passenger who isn't necessarily driving play. 

 

I see no "wild talent" man. There's been nothing that has stood out in 3 years that leads me to believe this guy is going to blow up (besides at the seems of his jersey- AKA fat and out of shape again). What is it going to take for you to move on from him? Whats the low point?

 

He's looking like he's a 3rd line player, with top line aspirations.  I don't think he's going to want to continue here as a guy that has to earn top icetime. I don't even blame him. This next contract is not going to be as easy as people think. He's not going to sign for what Kakko did. Kakko hasn't played as much, had injuries and a shortened season to blame for his lack of development.  He had to take that deal.  

 

Lafreniere has played most games in every season so far and  doesn't have anything but 1OA to stand on. But that goes a long way. Plus he's produced mildly, compared to Kakko. So, while I'm not crazy about the player, he is more valuable due to draft status, age and better production.  

 

I think Othmann walks on the team and instantly fits in on the 3rd line LW, no matter who his center is. The guy just has that "it" factor that shines through.  

 

If Kreider could be moved to RW, font you think it would have been done already? I dunno. He seems pretty much to be a guy that won't switch.  Odd seeing as he shoots well from the right.  Cuylle is more likely a guy that can and will move to the right, if he makes the team. 

 

I think it's the perfect time to move Lafreniere. There's no contract dispute (yet) and teams may still think highly of him.

 

I'd rather have a (salary retained) Kane and new prospects, heading into the playoffs, rather than keeping the Lafreniere charade going, into what I think is going to be a stand off come contract renewal time.

 

This isn't going to end well for the Rangers.  Might as well take a stab at the cup, when you are giving up on your 1OA whom isn't panning out here. He's more valuable traded than he is as a 3rd liner here. If he brought edge and physical play, I'd think differently. 

 

 

[LindG1000]

15 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Meh. He's back on the 1st line and once again is a passenger who isn't necessarily driving play. 

 

I see no "wild talent" man. There's been nothing that has stood out in 3 years that leads me to believe this guy is going to blow up (besides at the seems of his jersey- AKA fat and out of shape again). What is it going to take for you to move on from him? Whats the low point?

 

He's looking like he's a 3rd line player, with top line aspirations.  I don't think he's going to want to continue here as a guy that has to earn top icetime. I don't even blame him. This next contract is not going to be as easy as people think. He's not going to sign for what Kakko did. Kakko hasn't played as much, had injuries and a shortened season to blame for his lack of development.  He had to take that deal.  

 

Lafreniere has played most games in every season so far and  doesn't have anything but 1OA to stand on. But that goes a long way. Plus he's produced mildly, compared to Kakko. So, while I'm not crazy about the player, he is more valuable due to draft status, age and better production.  

 

I think Othmann walks on the team and instantly fits in on the 3rd line LW, no matter who his center is. The guy just has that "it" factor that shines through.  

 

If Kreider could be moved to RW, font you think it would have been done already? I dunno. He seems pretty much to be a guy that won't switch.  Odd seeing as he shoots well from the right.  Cuylle is more likely a guy that can and will move to the right, if he makes the team. 

 

I think it's the perfect time to move Lafreniere. There's no contract dispute (yet) and teams may still think highly of him.

 

I'd rather have a (salary retained) Kane and new prospects, heading into the playoffs, rather than keeping the Lafreniere charade going, into what I think is going to be a stand off come contract renewal time.

 

This isn't going to end well for the Rangers.  Might as well take a stab at the cup, when you are giving up on your 1OA whom isn't panning out here. He's more valuable traded than he is as a 3rd liner here. If he brought edge and physical play, I'd think differently. 

 

 

 

The series of assumptions you're making here is rather significant in that they all rely on each other and half of them contradict. He can't simultaneously be a talentless passenger and have nothing to stand on and also be a closet malcontent slash diva who doesn't want to have to fight for the ice time to prove that...he isn't talented? What, he's going to hold out because his numbers are fantastic? They're not awesome - underlying numbers are strong - but the boxcars, not so much. He's going to take 2 years at around 8m total, which is pretty much on the nose for a 35-40 point player with no special teams time. Not to mention the whole "I'd rather have Kane and prospects" thing - who, precisely, is the premium asset we're getting with Kane for Lafreniere? What's Chicago's incentive to trade more than Kane - or even just Kane straight up - for an "average" player like Lafreniere, let alone decently premium prospects off of a rebuilding team? Further, are we seriously considering offing Lafreniere for the assets to acquire a rental wing that fixes absolutely none of our problems, we can't in any meaningful way keep beyond this season, and has apparently forgotten how to play defense or score goals? Not to mention that we almost never have forwards step in and make immediate impacts, so why do we think Othmann - placed in pretty much the exact scenario as Lafreniere - would somehow be different?

 

None of this makes sense to me. Make it make sense.

[Keirik]

32 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Meh. He's back on the 1st line and once again is a passenger who isn't necessarily driving play. 

 

I see no "wild talent" man. There's been nothing that has stood out in 3 years that leads me to believe this guy is going to blow up (besides at the seems of his jersey- AKA fat and out of shape again). What is it going to take for you to move on from him? Whats the low point?

 

He's looking like he's a 3rd line player, with top line aspirations.  I don't think he's going to want to continue here as a guy that has to earn top icetime. I don't even blame him. This next contract is not going to be as easy as people think. He's not going to sign for what Kakko did. Kakko hasn't played as much, had injuries and a shortened season to blame for his lack of development.  He had to take that deal.  

 

Lafreniere has played most games in every season so far and  doesn't have anything but 1OA to stand on. But that goes a long way. Plus he's produced mildly, compared to Kakko. So, while I'm not crazy about the player, he is more valuable due to draft status, age and better production.  

 

I think Othmann walks on the team and instantly fits in on the 3rd line LW, no matter who his center is. The guy just has that "it" factor that shines through.  

 

If Kreider could be moved to RW, font you think it would have been done already? I dunno. He seems pretty much to be a guy that won't switch.  Odd seeing as he shoots well from the right.  Cuylle is more likely a guy that can and will move to the right, if he makes the team. 

 

I think it's the perfect time to move Lafreniere. There's no contract dispute (yet) and teams may still think highly of him.

 

I'd rather have a (salary retained) Kane and new prospects, heading into the playoffs, rather than keeping the Lafreniere charade going, into what I think is going to be a stand off come contract renewal time.

 

This isn't going to end well for the Rangers.  Might as well take a stab at the cup, when you are giving up on your 1OA whom isn't panning out here. He's more valuable traded than he is as a 3rd liner here. If he brought edge and physical play, I'd think differently. 

 

 

The CBA severely limits Alf’s options. I’m not an expert but it seems that the Rangers are only obligated to give him a qualifying offer to retain rights then negotiate a team friendly contract. It happens nearly every year to guys with a lot more production than him. Alf can…

 

1. negotiate in good faith and end up doubling or tripling his current base salary 

2. hold out like Nylander did years ago to a max of December 1st where he then would be ineligible to play for the rest of the year  and go through this again with the Rangers the following offseason

3. Play in Europe

4. pray another team gives him an offer sheet.

 

 

[The Dude]

6 hours ago, CCCP said:

we did this before, then came the dark ages.  remember?  dont trade away your future on rentals when you have no chance at the championship.  

 

 

But they aren't in the business of developing their prospects. . That's evident. The coach and the team concur. They aren't going to put player development ahead of trying to win. So prospects are to either instantly get it (Fox, Miller, Schneider) or the squander on lower lines with expectations that they can not meet due to the roles they are pushed into and kept in. 

 

When a 3rd or 4th year prospect is kind of a disappointment and is not really fitting the bill of team need or draft status expectations, I don't understand the thought of holding on to them and continuing the disappointment. Especially if the teams star players have a small window to do what they were brought here to do. This is when you cut bait. This is when you trade Dahlen for Gartner. Or Weight for Tikkianen (you get the point). 

 

You're not dealing every prospect. You're not leaving yourself empty handed for the future this time (ala 94). You have Othmann  and potentially Cuylle,  Berardi,  Sykora and whatever else you get in trade for youth replenishments. You have stock. You can't keep them all. Assess who fits now and down the road. There's so much that is replaceable and upgradable with Lafrenières roster spot/role here. 

[BrooksBurner]

Lafreniere and Miller will be closer to $5M combined than either of them will be to $5M separately, assuming bridge deals and I don't see them getting any different than that right now.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, Keirik said:

What are you basing that on? At this pace? There is zero chance that Alf’s or Keys next contract are anywhere near 5m. They have no leverage, no arb rights, and aren’t pacing anything earth shattering to make the Rangers not just go with a standard 2nd contract. . The only real worry would be some other team possibly poaching. 

Sorry. Meant 4 mill. 

 

Leverage is- a hold out and or offer sheet.  Disgruntled 1OA  could be a problem. 1OAs don't get a 2.5 mill show me bridge deal. I really don't see this team/player relationship, being in the best of shape. It can't be good. I don't think either is particularly happy with how this gas gone or where it's going. 

 

Plus, you can't bridge everyone and keep them happy. You also have to gamble on pitching one of these guys a bit more money to save more down the road. 

 

Miller at 4 X 4 would be huge for the future (if you're a believer in his talent). 

[The Dude]

2 hours ago, Sod16 said:

 

In a world where Kakko signed a two year bridge at $2.1m per, Miller, and especially LaF, can be bridged for significantly less than $5m per.

Meant 4. I will edit it. 

[cupalife]

16 hours ago, Pete said:

Pretty accurate. 

 

And frankly it's getting kind of old that people don't look at cap and league mechanics before saying "trade that guy". Even saying "they should trade Trouba" is now involving retention discussions because teams can't afford big contracts. These 3 or 4 players for 1 player doesn't work, ever. If it works with the math, it doesn't work with the needs of both or either team. 

 

Panarin is immoveable. Full NMC, $11M a year, who can take that on? If we retain, where's this "cap relief"?

 

When you have a logjam, you don't make trading the best player at the position on your team (and one of the best in the league) your top priority. The idea here isn't to trade Panarin because he didn't have the best playoff, it's to add playoff caliber players around him.

 

In order, they should look to move Lafreniere (bust), Kreider (easier contract to move), and Trouba (but they won't because they love him for some reason).

 

You don't move productive players who live up to their deals. You move overpaid and/or underperforming ones. It's like the people who want to trade Fox because he's not the perfect player.

 

Honestly I think you're right.  Panarin is untradeable, as is Trouba.  This team fucked it's rebuild in it's cradle.  The team should have built with kids and let them grow into successful players.  Instead they logjamed the lineup so the kids development has been stunted.   They had no business wading into contracts like Panarin's when they did.  They just couldn't be patient.  If they had known they would land Kakko and Laf would they have signed Panarin, I doubt it.  Of course it's revisionist history but in a rebuild you don't go adding your finishing piece before you even know what your strengths/weaknesses are.  It was a typical MSG move to sell tickets.  It's why you look across the river and see what the Devils have and become jealous.  The Devils sucked for years and amassed talent and the best draft picks possible.  They then went out and signed Hamilton last year.  They avoided 7 year UFA contracts otherwise.  And to my knowledge didn't hand out NMC'd like candy on top of 7 year deals. 

 

This is the team for better or worse.  Not much can or will change other than the equivalence of a paint job. The foundation is set.  54 years looks like I'd sign for that right now.  I may still be alive to see it.  The 2048 Stanley Cup Champions NY Rangers.  Sounds good.

[BrooksBurner]

4 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Sorry. Meant 4 mill. 

 

4 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Meant 4. I will edit it. 

 

[BrooksBurner]

16 hours ago, Pete said:

Pretty accurate. 

 

And frankly it's getting kind of old that people don't look at cap and league mechanics before saying "trade that guy". Even saying "they should trade Trouba" is now involving retention discussions because teams can't afford big contracts. These 3 or 4 players for 1 player doesn't work, ever. If it works with the math, it doesn't work with the needs of both or either team. 

 

Panarin is immoveable. Full NMC, $11M a year, who can take that on? If we retain, where's this "cap relief"?

 

When you have a logjam, you don't make trading the best player at the position on your team (and one of the best in the league) your top priority. The idea here isn't to trade Panarin because he didn't have the best playoff, it's to add playoff caliber players around him.

 

In order, they should look to move Lafreniere (bust), Kreider (easier contract to move), and Trouba (but they won't because they love him for some reason).

 

You don't move productive players who live up to their deals. You move overpaid and/or underperforming ones. It's like the people who want to trade Fox because he's not the perfect player.

 

 

The bold is a clear contradiction. The team shouldn't be looking to move a guy in Kreider who is outperforming his contract. They need more guys like him who outperform their contracts, and frankly it's getting a little silly to think he is overpaid or underperforming or anywhere close to a problem on the team.

Edited December 15, 2022 by rmc51

[Tonybologna]

18 minutes ago, cupalife said:

This is the team for better or worse.  Not much can or will change other than the equivalence of a paint job. The foundation is set.  54 years looks like I'd sign for that right now.  I may still be alive to see it.  The 2048 Stanley Cup Champions NY Rangers.  Sounds good.

Holy shit I understand your username now!!

Edited December 15, 2022 by Tonybologna

[Keirik]

3 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Sorry. Meant 4 mill. 

 

Leverage is- a hold out and or offer sheet.  Disgruntled 1OA  could be a problem. 1OAs don't get a 2.5 mill show me bridge deal. I really don't see this team/player relationship, being in the best of shape. It can't be good. I don't think either is particularly happy with how this gas gone or where it's going. 

 

Plus, you can't bridge everyone and keep them happy. You also have to gamble on pitching one of these guys a bit more money to save more down the road. 

 

Miller at 4 X 4 would be huge for the future (if you're a believer in his talent). 

Nah. Holding out isnt leverage unless you’re approaching elite stats and the team literally needs you and an offer sheet has nothing to do with any action of the player unless you’re saying tampering? Alf doesn’t control what other teams do.

 There is zero sign of him being disgruntled. I’d love to see some proof of that if you have any. 

I think I understand what you’re worried about but there isn’t much sign of this at all and we are still in a time we’re most teams are cap strapped. This isn’t changing next offseason if the cap goes up by 1m. There simply won’t be a ton of teams out there that throw a boatload of money at a guy that doesn’t have the exact numbers to support losing multiple high picks over. Maybe I’m off by 1m with Alf but I don’t think I’m off by a whole lot. Flat cap times are different.
 

If a team wants to swoop in and offer north of 6.1m we get a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd. If it’s slightly under, say 6m which is basically the ceiling of the lesser tier, we still get a 1st and 3rd. if it’s 4, we likely match to the point where so few teams would want to expose their intentions like that like Montreal did and spark a later poach as revenge. 
 

  The other part though that I’m not understanding is why you’re lumping Key into this. Even if a large amount of 1st overalls don’t get low bridged, late first rounders most certainly do. Key has a lot of potential, but he still is raw and has the same zero leverage. Can’t have it both ways. If Alf is more like 4 then key should come in under that given where he is in his career. 

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, LindG1000 said:

 

The series of assumptions you're making here is rather significant in that they all rely on each other and half of them contradict. He can't simultaneously be a talentless passenger and have nothing to stand on and also be a closet malcontent slash diva who doesn't want to have to fight for the ice time to prove that...he isn't talented? What, he's going to hold out because his numbers are fantastic? They're not awesome - underlying numbers are strong - but the boxcars, not so much. He's going to take 2 years at around 8m total, which is pretty much on the nose for a 35-40 point player with no special teams time. Not to mention the whole "I'd rather have Kane and prospects" thing - who, precisely, is the premium asset we're getting with Kane for Lafreniere? What's Chicago's incentive to trade more than Kane - or even just Kane straight up - for an "average" player like Lafreniere, let alone decently premium prospects off of a rebuilding team? Further, are we seriously considering offing Lafreniere for the assets to acquire a rental wing that fixes absolutely none of our problems, we can't in any meaningful way keep beyond this season, and has apparently forgotten how to play defense or score goals? Not to mention that we almost never have forwards step in and make immediate impacts, so why do we think Othmann - placed in pretty much the exact scenario as Lafreniere - would somehow be different?

 

None of this makes sense to me. Make it make sense.

As I stated. Other teams may and likely still do value his 1OA premium tag. It goes a very long way. His good attitude for being in a not so good (yet not so bad) situation is a selling point for a buyer thinking "change of scenery ". 

 

I mean, I've listed some potential prospects for Chicago to throw in. I never said top tier or premium. I did say players that fit team needs like bottom pairing D and forwards more cut out for bottom 6 roles.  I'm just not sure how good they are as I said I  read up small bits about them. Kinda figured someone would know a bit more about them. 

 

BTW, some have asked you about the talents that Lafreniere exhumes and you gave us crickets. Why am I explaining to you what I've already explained as far as a Chicago trade would look like, while you skip over what it is that you value  so much about his game that makes him untouchable?

 

Kane brings leadership. A winner. A legit scoring winger who has had chemistry with our best player. A guy that draws defenders. A playoff performer who gets respect from opponents and even the refs. Wouldnt it be nice to have a guy that gets the favorable calls in the playoffs,  instead of being on the other end of a weak hooking call, late in the game? How does he not fix any problems? The Rangers RW is a scoring black hole. They are getting nothing from the position, up and down the roster. 

 

IMO, Othmanns style is more cut out for a start on a 3rd line, where he can be an energy player, who doesn't have to be counted on for scoring, but could potentially bring it anyway. He's a round peg for a round hole. Where Lafreniere isn't very useful if he's not producing points.  He's not going to set any tone. He's just blah out there. Another perimeter, pass first schmoe. Othmann is cut from a different stone. Hes ridgid. He's attitude. Things that are useful from the 3rd line. Shit. He kills penalties too. 

[Keirik]

40 minutes ago, cupalife said:

Honestly I think you're right.  Panarin is untradeable, as is Trouba.  This team fucked it's rebuild in it's cradle.  The team should have built with kids and let them grow into successful players.  Instead they logjamed the lineup so the kids development has been stunted.   They had no business wading into contracts like Panarin's when they did.  They just couldn't be patient.  If they had known they would land Kakko and Laf would they have signed Panarin, I doubt it.  Of course it's revisionist history but in a rebuild you don't go adding your finishing piece before you even know what your strengths/weaknesses are.  It was a typical MSG move to sell tickets.  It's why you look across the river and see what the Devils have and become jealous.  The Devils sucked for years and amassed talent and the best draft picks possible.  They then went out and signed Hamilton last year.  They avoided 7 year UFA contracts otherwise.  And to my knowledge didn't hand out NMC'd like candy on top of 7 year deals. 

 

This is the team for better or worse.  Not much can or will change other than the equivalence of a paint job. The foundation is set.  54 years looks like I'd sign for that right now.  I may still be alive to see it.  The 2048 Stanley Cup Champions NY Rangers.  Sounds good.

Every team has some issues during a rebuild. You’re using the Devils as an example when in the middle of a rebuild they traded for one of the worst contracts in NHL history in PK Subban and tried to sign a washed up Corey Crawford who subsequently retired days later. Hell, even the Hamilton signing isn’t a lock. He makes 9m and had 30 points in 62 games. For 9 million. And he’ll be 30 this year. Under contract until he’s 35. Woof. 

 

 You can’t blame the Rangers for signing the top UFA that took less to come here and is above a ppg player BEFORE LaFreniere was even drafted and then praise the Devils for “doing it the right way” 

[Sod16]

8 minutes ago, The Dude said:

BTW, some have asked you about the talents that Lafreniere exhumes and you gave us crickets.

 

While I am willing to entertain the possibility that LaF is a bust, I won't acknowledge that he is a grave digger

[cupalife]

35 minutes ago, Tonybologna said:

Holy shit I understand your username now!!

You got it

[The Dude]

10 minutes ago, Keirik said:

Nah. Holding out isnt leverage unless you’re approaching elite stats and the team literally needs you and an offer sheet has nothing to do with any action of the player unless you’re saying tampering? Alf doesn’t control what other teams do.

 There is zero sign of him being disgruntled. I’d love to see some proof of that if you have any. 

I think I understand what you’re worried about but there isn’t much sign of this at all and we are still in a time we’re most teams are cap strapped. This isn’t changing next offseason if the cap goes up by 1m. There simply won’t be a ton of teams out there that throw a boatload of money at a guy that doesn’t have the exact numbers to support losing multiple high picks over. Maybe I’m off by 1m with Alf but I don’t think I’m off by a whole lot. Flat cap times are different.
 

If a team wants to swoop in and offer north of 6.1m we get a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd. If it’s slightly under, say 6m which is basically the ceiling of the lesser tier, we still get a 1st and 3rd. if it’s 4, we likely match to the point where so few teams would want to expose their intentions like that like Montreal did and spark a later poach as revenge. 
 

  The other part though that I’m not understanding is why you’re lumping Key into this. Even if a large amount of 1st overalls don’t get low bridged, late first rounders most certainly do. Key has a lot of potential, but he still is raw and has the same zero leverage. Can’t have it both ways. If Alf is more like 4 then key should come in under that given where he is in his career. 

 

Offer sheets are mutual. A player has to sign it. I'll never understand how it's not considered tampering by the league  

 

A hold out isn't always about any leverage a player has. Again. That 1OA stamp still holds weight, no matter his performance. 

 

I don't have any proof that he's disgruntled. It's an assumption and I think it's not exactly some whacky off the wall assumption. It's not working out as anyone expected here. I'd think he has pride. I'd think he'd want a better opportunity with a longer leash and more of a chance to be the main guy. 

 

There will be quote a few teams that can offer him more than what the Rangers may want to pay. That 4 -5 mill range is a sweet spot for a team hoping for a change of scenery/turn around for a recent 1OA. The price in draft compensation is worth the risk. Heck, if anyone offers him 6, it's not like the compensation is that great. I'd rather trade him straight up for Kane than to get a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. That's only slightly more than what it would take to trade for Kane anyway  

 

I bring up Key, because he's due a raise and he has been productive in his 1st 3 seasons. Gradually improving his stats. He's probably going to top 30 points and I'd say he is their top shut down D man. Thats  leverage.

 

He's really damn good and looks to just be improving every year. You can't bridge everyone. You do have to go long on some of these players. Out if all of them, Key is the guy I think you take a risk on. Kinda like they did with Skjei, whom I believe they gave 5 mill after less production and not as good or raw of potential as Miller is. That was like 5 years ago. Miller at 4 mill today, at his age is LESS than what Skjei got (which at the time wasn't that huge of a gamble). 

 

Key gets 4 for achieving. 

Lafrenière gets/wants 4 because 1OA and potential offersheet temptation.  

 

I'm tired and gotta get some sleep. 

 

If possible or if you have the time, can you or anyone list what the last 5-8 1OAs 2nd contracts look like. I'm doubting it's 2.5 X 2, no matter what their production was. 

[cupalife]

20 minutes ago, Keirik said:

Every team has some issues during a rebuild. You’re using the Devils as an example when in the middle of a rebuild they traded for one of the worst contracts in NHL history in PK Subban and tried to sign a washed up Corey Crawford who subsequently retired days later. Hell, even the Hamilton signing isn’t a lock. He makes 9m and had 30 points in 62 games. For 9 million. And he’ll be 30 this year. Under contract until he’s 35. Woof. 

 

 You can’t blame the Rangers for signing the top UFA that took less to come here and is above a ppg player BEFORE LaFreniere was even drafted and then praise the Devils for “doing it the right way” 

Not praising the Devils.  Just saying I would trade situations.  The guys you mention them bringing in were not signed to 7 year deals with NTC.  They were short term stop gap circumstances.  They needed to filed a NHL team with guys their kids could develop.  Hischier and Hughes were given the ice time and power play time and now are both looking great.  

 

Hamilton maybe a mistake but they didn't bring him in until years into their rebuild.  N team is going to be perfect.  However the Rangers problem is always their half measures.  

[Keirik]

20 minutes ago, The Dude said:

 

Offer sheets are mutual. A player has to sign it. I'll never understand how it's not considered tampering by the league  

 

A hold out isn't always about any leverage a player has. Again. That 1OA stamp still holds weight, no matter his performance. 

 

I don't have any proof that he's disgruntled. It's an assumption and I think it's not exactly some whacky off the wall assumption. It's not working out as anyone expected here. I'd think he has pride. I'd think he'd want a better opportunity with a longer leash and more of a chance to be the main guy. 

 

There will be quote a few teams that can offer him more than what the Rangers may want to pay. That 4 -5 mill range is a sweet spot for a team hoping for a change of scenery/turn around for a recent 1OA. The price in draft compensation is worth the risk. Heck, if anyone offers him 6, it's not like the compensation is that great. I'd rather trade him straight up for Kane than to get a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. That's only slightly more than what it would take to trade for Kane anyway  

 

I bring up Key, because he's due a raise and he has been productive in his 1st 3 seasons. Gradually improving his stats. He's probably going to top 30 points and I'd say he is their top shut down D man. Thats  leverage.

 

He's really damn good and looks to just be improving every year. You can't bridge everyone. You do have to go long on some of these players. Out if all of them, Key is the guy I think you take a risk on. Kinda like they did with Skjei, whom I believe they gave 5 mill after less production and not as good or raw of potential as Miller is. That was like 5 years ago. Miller at 4 mill today, at his age is LESS than what Skjei got (which at the time wasn't that huge of a gamble). 

 

Key gets 4 for achieving. 

Lafrenière gets/wants 4 because 1OA and potential offersheet temptation.  

 

I'm tired and gotta get some sleep. 

 

If possible or if you have the time, can you or anyone list what the last 5-8 1OAs 2nd contracts look like. I'm doubting it's 2.5 X 2, no matter what their production was. 

The answer to your last question is probably none or maybe 1. There are sites you can do the work if you want to. But there are a few things going against things being slightly different.
1. the cap isn’t changing in a huge amount. That affects some teams that might have been interested.

2. offer sheets aren’t even remotely common. There have only been 10 signed in the history of the salary cap era. 
3. the #2 overall just did sign a lower contract for us. Probably not many 2OA sign that yet we have one that did. 
4. how many offer sheets did .Kakko get? 
 

And like I already said, he could get closer to what you’re saying. Maybe 3 or so. Or if he gets 4 .key isn’t getting the same contract as the 1.OA” so it evens out. 

[Pete]

3 hours ago, rmc51 said:

 

The bold is a clear contradiction. The team shouldn't be looking to move a guy in Kreider who is outperforming his contract. They need more guys like him who outperform their contracts, and frankly it's getting a little silly to think he is overpaid or underperforming or anywhere close to a problem on the team.

The world is full of contradictions. That's life. They have too many LWs. They can't keep everyone. 

 

I'll keep the 90pt one over the 50pt one. It's not outrageous to believe they wouldn't have even signed Kreider if they knew they were getting Lafreniere. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Pete

[Pete]

2 hours ago, cupalife said:

Not praising the Devils.  Just saying I would trade situations.  The guys you mention them bringing in were not signed to 7 year deals with NTC.  They were short term stop gap circumstances.  They needed to filed a NHL team with guys their kids could develop.  Hischier and Hughes were given the ice time and power play time and now are both looking great.  

 

Hamilton maybe a mistake but they didn't bring him in until years into their rebuild.  N team is going to be perfect.  However the Rangers problem is always their half measures.  

There's nothing stopping you from being a Devils fan. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

I'll keep the 90pt one over the 50pt one. It's not outrageous to believe they wouldn't have even signed Kreider if they knew they were getting Lafreniere. 

Calling the guy that just scored 52 goals a "50pt player" is a bit misleading lol.

 

Over the last 3 full seasons + this season he's averaging ~65p/82g. More than half of the points are goals as well.

 

I would also keep Panarin over Kreider, but it's not as simple as "one is a 90pt player and one is a 50pt player". Panarin makes almost double what Kreids does, he scores fewer goals, he doesn't PK, he's worse in his own zone.

 

I don't think they'll trade either of them for what it's worth.