It's Time to Have the Lafrenière Conversation

[BrooksBurner]

24 minutes ago, The Dude said:

You're putting the horse before the carriage.  He took a small step backwards in goals this year while getting more looks with top players AND PP time.  I'm not counting on him doubling his output man. You can. That's fine. It's a sticking point to us agreeing on what this kid is. 

 

Or maybe it doesn't because his work ethic has sucked so far. 3 years in a row and hes out of shape every year. Can't guarantee that he's just going to turn it around and finally train harder. You'd think he'd have figured that out by now. 

 

 

I don't have any data. But it's common sense.  Teams are going to put their best match up against Zibanejad and Panarins lines.  Add in that for most of the season the kid line would be out there after a PP would end, which again, means the opponent is putting their lesser effective checkers out there after  PK situation. 

So.. like are you agreeing with me that he stands no chance to break in on the top PP unit? Because you just made my point for me. He doesn't fit on PP1, which is a pretty successful unit.  I'm not getting how this helps your take on how he's going to get serious PP time. 

The committment has gotten them to 2 straight 100 point seasons  and 1 ECF with no system.  

 

The Rangers arent going to trade Panarin. I get why you want to.  I really do. It's just not going to happen. Cap hit and NTC aside, they'd taking a crazy risk to trade Panarin to get more opportunities to a guy that scored 16 goals last year and has beenconsidereda seriouslet downdue to his draft status. Unlessthey are tearingit all downtothestuds, such a move makes no senseand is veryunrealistic.  . 

Underlying stats suggest Panarin and Trocheck work well together. Lafrenière hasn't gone on a run. There's nothing of a sample that shows there can be consistency.  Atleast Chytil had a hot streak, where he couldn't be stopped. That lends to hope that there's something there. Where's our 1OAs run? Dude, I really can't even think of a shift where he had "it". 

It increases his playing time with the best players on the roster. It eliminates the blame game of not being given a proper opportunity. It eliminates the excuse of the kid lines inexperience as any factor in his mediocre play. He'll be out there in more key moments. Isn't this what people want?  

Lafrenière doesn't hit everything. To infer that would mean he's an effective play disruptor. It would mean he's noticeable in the middle of breaking up plays or forechecking like a maniac. He's not. So, he's not strong enough yet, but he'll get there. He's not in shape yet, but he'll get there. He's not consistent yet, but he'll get there. Sorry man, but you're banking on a lot of somewhat negative stuff just magically turning around. I'm just not buying it.  There's too much work to do that he's needed to do for atleast 2 of his 3 years here but hasn't. 

 

As for how dynamic Othmann is. Sure that's up in the air and I'm pumping him up big time. But he already has a lower line players attributes and playing style that should transition to the pro game, without needing his offensive skills. In other words, if he isn’t scoring,  he still fills needs as an energy player and a PKer. All he has to do is be a pain in the ass and he fills the need. I included Cuylle in that dynamic comment more because he can PK as well.  Making him a useful player if HIS offensive abilities are late to adapt to the NHL level.  That's why I think they can step into Lafrenieres role. They don't need the production. They need the grit, the attitude and the multitasking bottom 6 forward that they don't have to concentrate on immediately. I feel this players skillets can force their way up the lineup  in ways Lafrenière couldn't/hasn't.  

 

 

Sadly I think those holding onto hope for this kid to one day be "the man" for this team are putting more pressure on him than those of us, who have seen enough and want him gone. 

 

You seem to think that as this core ages, yet gets rid of Panarin, it  will somehow be a more competitive team. It will be 3 years older and likely without Shesterkin,  Lindgren,  Kreider and Trouba. How is that version of this team better suited for any cup runs? The window is now, while Shesterkin is here and with no contract negotiation over his head. While I think this core is flawed as fuck, this will be their best opportunity to make one last run. This coming year is it IMO. I want to get a RW that deserves to be in the top 6. A guy that brings a style that isn't here on the top lines. This team has set up.men coming out of its ass. It's totally set up for a complementary player like Boeser or someone a step below that elite level. 

 

In my opinion,  the Rangers need to accept the loss and deal Lafrenière for what he's worth NOW. Let go of the fear. He's never going to make it here. I'd rather get a Boeser with retention than a 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2 years. They're not getting a core type player for him. Not now, not in the future. Let it go man. Grab the current team need. If not Boeser,  someone of that level is the equivalent of what you should be expecting in exchange.  

It really just comes down to me not thinking the team wins anything with a $12M playoff zero in Panarin. You do. I could give two shits about just being competitive. That’s too low of a bar to have and pretty much why this loser franchise can’t win a Cup. As long as the money is flowing in.

 

I’m not saying they will without a doubt be a Cup winning team post-Panarin if they hang onto the young guys they have, but I know what I know now (they are not winning with a guy taking up almost 15% of the cap and not carrying the team when it counts), and I don’t know what I don’t know later (maybe some combination of Chytil, Lafreniere, Kakko, Miller, Othmann in their mid 20s can).

 

I hope Drury recognizes that. They took their chance two years in a row. It failed. Next.

[Sod16]

Let's take a step back.  What would your opinion of LaF be, based on what you've seen with your eyes so far, if he had not been a 1st overall pick but rather a late first rounder or second rounder?  Would you be talking about his high ceiling?  How much better would you be expecting him to get?  The scouting reports that made him a No. 1 are irrelevant now.  So are his junior stats.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Sod16

[Br4d]

50 minutes ago, jsrangers said:

For every guy who doubles up to their "natural" progression after their third season there are hundreds who do not. But yeah Laugh is very special I read the pre draft write up of his skills assessment. 

 

It's not a question of 3rd season.  It's a question of 3rd season at age 21.

 

There's a big difference between establishing a baseline of .2 even strength goals per game in 14:25 TOI at 21 and doing the same thing at 24.

 

This is because most players who have established that they can score at even strength at age 21 are going to see a significant increase in their scoring abilities over the next few years as they grow in confidence and increase their ability to maintain an edge against a peer group that they are catching up to in mental acuity and physical strength.

 

The 24 year olds that have established that 3rd year baseline have much less potential to grow because they are already closer to the peer group in both qualities than the 21 year olds and yet they are still producing at only marginally successful levels.

 

Why did Alexis Lafreniere look much better in Juniors than he does now?  Because he was equal in development to the peer group he was playing against.  As a boy it is easier for your skills to stand out against other boys.  In the NHL Laffy has not yet had the experience of playing at equal standing because he's been 19, 20 and 21 playing against a peer group of mostly 25, 26 and 27 year olds with a curve on age on each side of that distribution.  these are guys that know the ropes for the most part and have the toughness of men while he has still been a young man.

 

All of this is putting aside the arguments of #1OA because usually those guys are tremendously advanced in terms of their skills and ability to cope with playing against people who out-weight them experientially so to speak.  I don't argue at any point that Lafreniere is going to be a typical #1OA who blows away the NHL because clearly he is not that.

 

However when he has his skates firmly on the ice as he matures he is likely to be a very good hockey player, given the way that we have seen him approach contact and scoring opportunities as a young man.   If he turns into a 60, 70, 80 point guy that is nothing to turn our noses up at.  How often have we developed that kind of player in the system?

[Pete]

41 minutes ago, Br4d said:

 

It's not a question of 3rd season.  It's a question of 3rd season at age 21.

 

There's a big difference between establishing a baseline of .2 even strength goals per game in 14:25 TOI at 21 and doing the same thing at 24.

 

This is because most players who have established that they can score at even strength at age 21 are going to see a significant increase in their scoring abilities over the next few years as they grow in confidence and increase their ability to maintain an edge against a peer group that they are catching up to in mental acuity and physical strength.

 

The 24 year olds that have established that 3rd year baseline have much less potential to grow because they are already closer to the peer group in both qualities than the 21 year olds and yet they are still producing at only marginally successful levels.

 

Why did Alexis Lafreniere look much better in Juniors than he does now?  Because he was equal in development to the peer group he was playing against.  As a boy it is easier for your skills to stand out against other boys.  In the NHL Laffy has not yet had the experience of playing at equal standing because he's been 19, 20 and 21 playing against a peer group of mostly 25, 26 and 27 year olds with a curve on age on each side of that distribution.  these are guys that know the ropes for the most part and have the toughness of men while he has still been a young man.

 

All of this is putting aside the arguments of #1OA because usually those guys are tremendously advanced in terms of their skills and ability to cope with playing against people who out-weight them experientially so to speak.  I don't argue at any point that Lafreniere is going to be a typical #1OA who blows away the NHL because clearly he is not that.

 

However when he has his skates firmly on the ice as he matures he is likely to be a very good hockey player, given the way that we have seen him approach contact and scoring opportunities as a young man.   If he turns into a 60, 70, 80 point guy that is nothing to turn our noses up at.  How often have we developed that kind of player in the system?

There's a big difference between a 60-point guy and an 80-point guy. 

 

You're also applying a level of logic as a blanket statement as if all players were created equally. They aren't. This isn't Hughes who's waiting for his body to catch up to his skill. Or even Kakko, where you can see that his brain wants to make the right play, his body's learning the way to do it.

 

There is no there there with Laugh. There is no point of dynamic play that you could look at and say, "once he learns to do more of that more consistently, he'll be fine." He normally shows next to nothing in terms of high-end skill on the ice. Watching him, he really does project to be a third line grinder. Nick Cousins. 

[Br4d]

48 minutes ago, Pete said:

There's a big difference between a 60-point guy and an 80-point guy. 

 

You're also applying a level of logic as a blanket statement as if all players were created equally. They aren't. This isn't Hughes who's waiting for his body to catch up to his skill. Or even Kakko, where you can see that his brain wants to make the right play, his body's learning the way to do it.

 

There is no there there with Laugh. There is no point of dynamic play that you could look at and say, "once he learns to do more of that more consistently, he'll be fine." He normally shows next to nothing in terms of high-end skill on the ice. Watching him, he really does project to be a third line grinder. Nick Cousins. 

 

I just disagree with the general premise here.  He's not flashy, or rarely so, but he is just a step off being great.  It's hard to see but the overall numbers really do not lie.

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Br4d said:

but he is just a step off being great.  It's hard to see but the overall numbers really do not lie.

Yea, no. The obscure cherry picked stats that get extrapolated based on guesses say that. Not the stats that matter. 

[Scott]

35 minutes ago, Pete said:

Yea, no. The obscure cherry picked stats that get extrapolated based on guesses say that. Not the stats that matter. 

We got time (lots of it) we're assuming we should sit back and kick the can down the road 4 more years then decide, you just wait and see.

 

When he gets his feet/skates more firmly under him (just add more cement).

Edited May 22, 2023 by jsrangers

[The Dude]

On 5/21/2023 at 6:15 PM, BrooksBurner said:

It really just comes down to me not thinking the team wins anything with a $12M playoff zero in Panarin. You do. I could give two shits about just being competitive. That’s too low of a bar to have and pretty much why this loser franchise can’t win a Cup. As long as the money is flowing in.

 

I’m not saying they will without a doubt be a Cup winning team post-Panarin if they hang onto the young guys they have, but I know what I know now (they are not winning with a guy taking up almost 15% of the cap and not carrying the team when it counts), and I don’t know what I don’t know later (maybe some combination of Chytil, Lafreniere, Kakko, Miller, Othmann in their mid 20s can).

 

I hope Drury recognizes that. They took their chance two years in a row. It failed. Next.

 

 

Meh. I'm talking about getting rid of one kid. Lafrenière.  The rest of the kids can progress and it makes sense (positionall) to keep them.

 

I think there's a better chance of turning Panarin into a better player  (96 and 92 points lmao) by installing a system and having a coach who gives lines time to gell. This gives the Rangers a better chance of winning  (ECF last season), than it does with spring boarding Mr. 16  goals to franchise winger status. 

 

What does this potential future lineup, without Panarin and with Lafrenière as the top LW option look like and how would it increase their chances?

 

Did I miss when Lafrenière was any good in the playoffs?  How is he any type of better option for the future? I mean you're suggesting he tops out as a 30 goal- 60 point player if he gets all the icetime on the PP. 

 

I do understand your take on Panarin.  I'm almost to that point too. But this take on how Lafrenière is the better option is something I really can't get on board with. It's a bad take man. But, what ever. I've had perceived bad takes too. 

 

I think we've gone as far as we can on this part of the subject. We don't see it the same. At all. I think we can leave it (discussion) as is for now. 

Edited May 22, 2023 by The Dude