Mercogliano Rangers Expected to Sign Lafreniere to 2-year Bridge With $2.5–2.75m AAV

[LindG1000]

It occurs to me that the arguments made here really aren't either-or arguments.

 

Would PP time help with their overall production? Yeah, probably.

Was Lafreniere drafted into a shit spot to be a LW? Yeah, probably.

Is Lafreniere not really a good skater? Yeah, probably.

Has Lafreniere been misused by Gallant, specifically? Yeah, probably.

Is his footspeed an issue that would impact him anywhere else? Yeah, probably.

 

All can be true. Regardless, it's not much to discuss because he's got the cap space he's got and that's pretty much it. If he wants more, he'd need to seek it out elsewhere.

 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

It occurs to me that the arguments made here really aren't either-or arguments.

 

Would PP time help with their overall production? Yeah, probably.

Was Lafreniere drafted into a shit spot to be a LW? Yeah, probably.

Is Lafreniere not really a good skater? Yeah, probably.

Has Lafreniere been misused by Gallant, specifically? Yeah, probably.

Is his footspeed an issue that would impact him anywhere else? Yeah, probably.

 

All can be true. Regardless, it's not much to discuss because he's got the cap space he's got and that's pretty much it. If he wants more, he'd need to seek it out elsewhere.

 

 

Correct. The original argument was an attempt to manifest a scenario that doesn't exist. I was told "we have multiple contracts signed this year by similar players in age and circumstance that are substantially higher than $2.5-2.75 AAV" — an argument that has failed to stand up to simple scrutiny (which?)

 

The only comparable even signed this year is Newhook who signed at 22 for four years, $2.9 million per. No signing bonuses. Straight salary on a back-diving deal.

 

The Rangers have approximately $3 million in available room. Laugh is facing a binary choice here: sign or don't but there's no reason to believe this will "draw out a bit longer," because there's little to argue about except the details over year one to year two variance. He's not eligible for trade protection and will almost certainly not be signing for longer than two years.

 

So, what exactly are we arguing about here?

[LindG1000]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Correct. The original argument was an attempt to manifest a scenario that doesn't exist. I was told "we have multiple contracts signed this year by similar players in age and circumstance that are substantially higher than $2.5-2.75 AAV" — an argument that has failed to stand up to simple scrutiny (which?)

 

The only comparable even signed this year is Newhook who signed at 22 for four years, $2.9 million per. No signing bonuses. Straight salary on a back-diving deal.

 

The Rangers have approximately $3 million in available room. Laugh has a binary choice here: sign or don't. There's no reason to believe this will "draw out a bit longer," because there's little to argue about except the details over year one to year two variance. He's not eligible for trade protection and will almost certainly not be signing for longer than two years.

 

So, what exactly are we arguing about here?

 

I mean, if he wants to sign the Newhook deal, great, I guess? 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I mean, if he wants to sign the Newhook deal, great, I guess? 

 

I mean, sure, I guess. I don't know why he'd want to, but go nuts.

[jsm7302]

I think the argument exists that the depth chart for Chytil and Laf has hindered opportunity. Maybe not so much for Kakko outside of PP time but I don't think you can skirt that there have been 2 positions slotted in front of both for the entirety of their career.

[Pete]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

Then why harp on how bad they might be when you know they’re young kids who are developing????

 

Thats a general “you” by the way.

 

IDK… seems counterproductive 

Because only one of those players is stagnant, and he's the one who gets the most heat.

[Dem]

Had high hopes for this kid. I really don't see the work ethic and drive. doesn't get his hands dirty, be it physical play or driving the net. He only makes sense on a low $ bridge deal. At this point I see him as a journeyman 3rd liner unless something dramatic happens from within him.

[Scott]

7 hours ago, jsm7302 said:

I think the argument exists that the depth chart for Chytil and Laf has hindered opportunity. Maybe not so much for Kakko outside of PP time but I don't think you can skirt that there have been 2 positions slotted in front of both for the entirety of their career.

I agree.

 

That doesn't mean he had to play like a mediocre 3rd liner though (he's had chances to play up as well).  If he was that highly skilled (as sold) he could be a standout 3rd liner and those of us who are down on him would be selling an entirely different tune. I was through the roof when we lucked into the first pick. 240+ games in not so much.

 

I'm not sure what Chytil is after 350 games in. Pretty sure he's still not a 2C on a cup contending team, not sure he can hold up for an entire 82 games. He shows flashes of skill that comes in streaks and makes you think OK he's finally turned the corner but then disappears for relatively long stretches, not much if any grit to his game  Not sure he'll ever learn to be good in the dot. He's on an OK deal I guess, one that can be moved if necessary at some point. We have two newer guys that have failed to impress so I think he can fly under the radar relatively easily at this point.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by jsrangers

[The Dude]

On 7/11/2023 at 8:06 PM, BrooksBurner said:

 

None of them are getting anywhere near 60 because none of them are going to get the PP time. They spent almost all of their time at 5v5, and that's where they will spend all of their time again because Rangers gonna Rangers.

 

Connor McDavid had 59 5v5 pts this year. They aren't Connor McDavid.

Or because nothing special gonna nothing special.

 

If Lafrenière was any good he'd be a difference maker on any line he plays on He'd carry a line. He'd dominate.  Hed be extremely noticeable. This would catapult him onto the PP.

 

Maybe he'll figure it out in year 4, like most generational talents do. Heyyy wait a second they usually show that instantly.  

 

Chytil has show the most ability of the 3 and has earned a shot with the top PP unit. That's because he started being extremely noticeable.  He's was a player that teams had to start worrying about. He'd dominate some shifts.  These traits were noticeable in him some years ago. The talent and skill was just something that needed time and for the guy to remain healthy. 

 

Point is, most of us are still waiting for any kind of freakish dominance from fat boy. A 1OA pick and we're still waiting. 

 

I'm done waiting. He's not going to do it here. By all accounts of what we've heard, this dummy once again isn't taking the offseason seriously. The sight of him just annoys me. The level of disappointment can't be overcome,  because it's quite obvious that he's not going to pan out as a generational talent, and it's mostly on him. Another offseason of no power skating coach,  no extra work in the gym. I say this, based on the report a month ago that the Rangers weren't happy with his lack of offseason work. 

 

 

[The Dude]

5 hours ago, Br4d said:

This including the fact that if he was another 21 year old player taken somewhere else in the draft everybody would likely be thrilled with how things have turned out so far.

You say this just after suggesting that him using his 1OA status as a bargaining chip is a legit negotiation point  (I think it does hold some weight) .

 

So, which is it? Is he to be treated special in negotiations because he's a 1OA? If so,, why do we keep hearing this "if he was any other 21 year old, everyone would be thrilled ".. 

 

He's not any other 21 year old. He was taken 1OA. Nobody is thrilled. Like at all.....

Edited July 13, 2023 by The Dude

[The Dude]

4 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

You act as if there’s going to be an issue.

 

BTW…. Andersson, Kravtsov, and how much everyone wants to talk negatively about Laf, Chytil, Kakko over the last several years….

 

Not possible it could just be organizational ineptitude as far as handling and developing these guys goes? I mean, what with their stellar record in drafting and developing, particularly forwards, that couldn’t possibly be it.

Cause ya know… there’s that laundry list of elite, high-end talent kind of forwards that they’ve homegrown over the years… so they’ve gotta be bloomin’ experts at it. 

 

 

Yet all the Dmen have been able to push their way in and up the lineup.

 

Miller just put up 40 points as a Dman with no PP time. Lafrenière as a forward couldn't outscore a dman. The generational talent that got favorable matchups,  couldn't out score the Dman who git the same treatment. 

 

Its the player. There's been very, very little "it" shining through. Chytil showed some. Kakko too. Not fatso. 

[The Dude]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Anyway, Laugh will sign a two-year bridge worth around $2.5 million per year, because that's what's available to him. That, or he can sit and wait for money that will never materialize to materialize. His choice.

Or, go for that offersheet. One that puts him out of the Rangers range to sign him without making a cap clearing trade.

 

It wouldn't even be very much and not even touch the threshold of getting a 1st in compensation. 

 

Montreal can swoop in and give him like 3.8 X 4 and only have to surrender like a 2nd and a 4th or something (that's a guess).

 

Just saying that's a possibility,  but I believe Lafrenière said he's happy here. Who knows. 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Or, go for that offersheet. One that puts him out of the Rangers range to sign him without making a cap clearing trade.

 

It wouldn't even be very much and not even touch the threshold of getting a 1st in compensation. 

 

Montreal can swoop in and give him like 3.8 X 4 and only have to surrender like a 2nd and a 4th or something (that's a guess).

 

Just saying that's a possibility, but I believe Lafrenière said he's happy here. Who knows. 

 

I'll take the picks.

 

MTL can't do this though. You can only offer sheet with your own picks. They don't have their own 2024 second, so they'd have to do it for a first.

[Kevin]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

You can't even compare these players. Don't even try.

 

But if Hughes was a 40 point 3rd liner, then yea I bet Devil's fans would have the same reaction.

They did have that player. Pavel Zacha. Now on his second team. I see a similar path for Laf.  

[Kevin]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

Nah. You can re redrafts for both these players. It's evident that they both lack the skating chops for the NHL. Not necessarily speed, but edgework, first-step acceleration, stops and starts. They just can't get to where they want to be efficiently enough against NHLers.

 

Frankly they should have both been in the AHL, but COVID. If 2 different teams drafted these players, I think they'd just be disappointments for their teams. But winning the draft lottery two years in a row and got ...this... was in fact (un)lucky and an accident.

 

But, the idea that just  them un-earned PP time would have somehow changed their developmental arc is pretty fascinating.

 

 

I disagree a little with Kakko. His edges are fantastic. His speed and bursts are what is lacking. Laf lacks it all.

[BreakawayMachine]

5 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

You act as if there’s going to be an issue.

 

BTW…. Andersson, Kravtsov, and how much everyone wants to talk negatively about Laf, Chytil, Kakko over the last several years….

 

Not possible it could just be organizational ineptitude as far as handling and developing these guys goes? I mean, what with their stellar record in drafting and developing, particularly forwards, that couldn’t possibly be it.

Cause ya know… there’s that laundry list of elite, high-end talent kind of forwards that they’ve homegrown over the years… so they’ve gotta be bloomin’ experts at it. 

 

 

 

Well if the Rangers say that nobody fails at developing their 1st round talent then I believe that nobody failed.

 

And if nobody failed at developing talent, thats the same nobody that failed at developing Lias Andersson.

 

And if nobody failed at developing Lias Andersson thats the same nobody that failed at developing Filip Chytil.

 

And if nobody failed at developing Filip Chytil thats the same nobody that failed at developing Vitali Kravstov.

 

And if nobody failed at developing Vitali Kravstov thats the same nobody that failed at developing Kaapo Kakko.

 

And if nobody failed at developing Kaapo Kakko thats the same nobody that failed at developing Alexis Lafreniere.

 

Thats a lot of nobody’s out there and nobody minds if nobody drafts another bust. That don’t bother nobody right? Certainly doesn’t bother me.

[Scott]

One of those guys isn't even playing in North American anymore he ran home again and another in his third year in the Kings org played 1 game in LA and 67 in the minors. 

 

Sometimes there's just  nothing to develop regardless of where they were drafted. The trend of drafting lazy mf'ers is mind boggling. 

[Kevin]

3 hours ago, jsrangers said:

One of those guys isn't even playing in North American anymore he ran home again and another in his third year in the Kings org played 1 game in LA and 67 in the minors. 

 

Sometimes there's just  nothing to develop regardless of where they were drafted. The trend of drafting lazy mf'ers is mind boggling. 

In fairness, the process has to be extremely difficult for all teams. With the NHL draft getting kids that are just 18, so much of it is guesswork on how they’re going to grow. I’m curious as to how much weight is put on off ice stuff versus just what they see on the ice.  I’d try having my scouts research the players abilities and then have a secondary scout try finding out about how the player was raised and what type of people the parents are. 
 

To make the process even more difficult almost all of these kids that are taken high are leaving their parents care at 15 years old and going to live with other people for the hockey season (7-9 months). 
 

So much guesswork is involved that it’s no surprise there are so many misses. The Rangers just have had a higher miss rate than some other teams.

[Br4d]

The Rangers have a real competition problem.  There is never a clean path to the ice for their 1st rounders.  This is because the team is almost always somewhere from quasi-contender to the real thing.

 

When this pattern repeats over and over again, as it has, you have to think it's an organizational flaw.

 

It's hard to see where they break the pattern though.  They market as an upscale contender almost all the time, to the point that they had to send out a letter asking permission to rebuild even though it was obvious that they needed a rebuild.  Then they went out and acquired talent to make it hard for their young guys to get meaningful playing time.  I'm not just talking Chytil, Kakko and Lafreniere here.

 

The only young guy from in the organization that has not had his path blocked significantly over the past decade or so is Miller.  And of course Miller is the guy who looks best of all of them 5 years in.

[Pete]

9 hours ago, Kevin said:

I disagree a little with Kakko. His edges are fantastic. His speed and bursts are what is lacking. Laf lacks it all.

Yes, it's something Kakko has worked at, I was more referencing when they both came into the league. 

[Pete]

1 hour ago, Br4d said:

The Rangers have a real competition problem.  There is never a clean path to the ice for their 1st rounders.  This is because the team is almost always somewhere from quasi-contender to the real thing.

 

When this pattern repeats over and over again, as it has, you have to think it's an organizational flaw.

 

It's hard to see where they break the pattern though.  They market as an upscale contender almost all the time, to the point that they had to send out a letter asking permission to rebuild even though it was obvious that they needed a rebuild.  Then they went out and acquired talent to make it hard for their young guys to get meaningful playing time.  I'm not just talking Chytil, Kakko and Lafreniere here.

 

The only young guy from in the organization that has not had his path blocked significantly over the past decade or so is Miller.  And of course Miller is the guy who looks best of all of them 5 years in.

Fox had his path blocked by two players. He just went out and outplayed them, and won a Norris in the process. Miller doesn't get PP time, but he's flourishing offensively. What's Lafreniere excuse? 

 

You're making the point for us. Fox and Miller have "it". Lafreniere doesn't. Chytil and Kakko might. 

 

I also find your spin on events fascinating. They asked permission to rebuild? No they didn't. They communicated what was going to happen. They're not the first or only team to do this. 

 

Then, your complaint is that they rebuilt too fast? Got too many good players to come? WTF?

 

For all the "well first rounders usually come in with top line minutes and PP times on bad teams"... Sure, maybe, but that's not by design, it's by necessity. Don't you think the staff of those teams would love to ease in their top players slowly, perhaps against lesser competition on the third line? Rather than throwing them to the wolves? I mean you've seen Lafreniere play, right? Can you imagine him up against the other team's top shut down unit every night? He'd look even worse. 

 

You can finagle all the numbers and shift the conversation to "if he wasn't a #1!"... But anyone watching this guy play can see there's no there there. There's no "it". He's a #1 overall who's never the best player on the ice at anything hockey related. Let that sink in. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Pete

[Br4d]

I don't know maybe the Rangers are just unlucky with all the #1's that don't work out.

 

Except you and I both know that's not the case.

 

I've been waiting 50 years for the Rangers to grow a great forward from scratch and I'm still waiting.

 

In 50 years Brian Leetch is still the only great skater the Rangers have developed.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Br4d

[fletch]

If I told you Lafreniere's career production turned into Phil Kessel, would you be satisfied?

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lafreal01.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kesseph01.html

 

I'm currently down on Lafreniere because of his conditioning issues, so Kessel popped into mind to check out career stats.

Kessel turned into a 25-35 goal a year scorer when he started getting more PP goals and a couple NHL seasons under his belt.

 

I'm not convinced Lafreniere reaches his ceiling with the Rangers, he may need a trade to have motivation to prepare better/earn more ice time etc., I'm just trying to picture best case scenario.

[Pete]

16 minutes ago, fletch said:

If I told you Lafreniere's career production turned into Phil Kessel, would you be satisfied?

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lafreal01.html

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kesseph01.html

 

I'm currently down on Lafreniere because of his conditioning issues, so Kessel popped into mind to check out career stats.

Kessel turned into a 25-35 goal a year scorer when he started getting more PP goals and a couple NHL seasons under his belt.

 

I'm not convinced Lafreniere reaches his ceiling with the Rangers, he may need a trade to have motivation to prepare better/earn more ice time etc., I'm just trying to picture best case scenario.

I hear you on trying to think about a best case scenario. And I think people are just trying to grasp at any parallel career path as they hold out hope that he'll turn into... Something.

 

But you can't neglect the on ice product when evaluating these players. Kessel always had speed and a deadly shot... The kind of shot where all he needs is a few feet of space to get one off and you have a goal. Instant offense with his legs and hands. 

 

What's Lafreniere have? 

 

And look, here's the thing... If he doesn't have it he doesn't have it. It's not his fault the scouts hyped him up into something that he isn't. He can't control that. But you know what he can control? His own work ethic, dedication, and effort which has not been nearly good enough throughout his first 3 years on any front, and that's on him and that's why fans sour

on him. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Pete

[RJWantsTheCup]

At some point the talent should show and force the team to move a player up and on to the power play if the talent is there.  So far Donut Hole looks like an out of shape kid playing amongst men.