Walker Rangers' Igor Shesterkin Could Aim for Historic Contract After Dominant Playoff Run

[Albatrosss]

1 hour ago, RangersIn7 said:

Not in any meaningful or substantive way.

 
 

We’re in favor of riding him this season and then letting him go if his tag is anywhere close to his asking price of $12M per

[Pete]

10 hours ago, RangersIn7 said:

Not in any meaningful or substantive way.

 
 

What would make it meaningful and substantive? You're asking a trap question.

 

You want me to throw out or return so that you can say it's not equal value. I don't care if it's equal value, the value is not paying your goalie 12 million a season. 

 

I'm not going for the trap. 

[Sharpshooter]

Expecting 8-10 years for $12.5 million per, $12 million even at the lowest for us.

Edited Monday at 12:20 PM by Sharpshooter

[Albatrosss]

14 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Expecting 8-10 years for $12.5 million per, $12 million even at the lowest for us.

Im sure Drury will do it. He would have to have huge balls not to re-sign him. 

[Sharpshooter]

1 minute ago, Albatrosss said:

Im sure Drury will do it. He would have to have huge balls not to re-sign him. 

I know a lot of folks on here wouldn't want to do that kind of deal, but there's going to be a ton of pressure on Drury to get something done. It's ultimately why I think they will agree on something, and he'll be back. I'd be pretty shocked if isn't.

[Pete]

56 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Expecting 8-10 years for $12.5 million per, $12 million even at the lowest for us.

Max contract is an 8-year term, But I'm afraid you're right about the AAV. 

[RangersIn7]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

What would make it meaningful and substantive? You're asking a trap question.

 

You want me to throw out or return so that you can say it's not equal value. I don't care if it's equal value, the value is not paying your goalie 12 million a season. 

 

I'm not going for the trap. 

Except I’m not looking to trap you.

Im interested in what you think they should get and what they could get. 
 

Im aware that goalies don’t bring huge returns but I think they could get a return they’d actually like.

 

And I agree that they shouldn’t pay their goalie that much. 
 

So they need to trade him

Edited Monday at 02:54 PM by RangersIn7

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, RangersIn7 said:

Except I’m not looking to trap you.

Im interested in what you think they should get and what they could get. 
 

Im aware that goalies don’t bring huge returns but I think they could get a return they’d actually like.

 

And I agree that they shouldn’t pay their goalie that much. 
 

So they need to trade him

Right, so that's why I don't care what they trade him for. Maybe a second at the draft for negotiating rights. I have no idea, nor am I as concerned with the return as I am with not sinking ~$14M in the goaltending position. 

[jsm7302]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

Max contract is an 8-year term, But I'm afraid you're right about the AAV. 

Signing him for 8 years seems long for a guy who has had a bit of an injury history. I feel like this contract will come back to bite us.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

Max contract is an 8-year term, But I'm afraid you're right about the AAV. 

Yup. My expectation is $11.5M x 8. And I'm going to hate it immediately.

[LindG1000]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5760887/2024/09/16/nhl-contracts-elite-players-shesterkin-bouchard-rantanen/

 

Quote

 

If we split the difference between the Price and Hellebuyck cap hit percentage, we’d arrive at about 11.8 percent of the cap, which equates to a $10.9 million cap hit. That seems like a reasonable ballpark. It would be a record-setting AAV for a goaltender to sign and right around the neighborhood of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s last deal (his cap hit percentage would translate to a $10.7 million AAV).

 

How tight will the Rangers’ cap squeeze be? Let’s map out a rough projection. We’ll plug in a $10.9 million cap hit for Shesterkin and we’ll use AFP Analytics’ projections for Lafrenière ($7 million AAV) and Miller ($6.4 million AAV). You may disagree with the estimates for these players (I believe $7 million is quite low for Lafrenière, for example), but the purpose of this is to just be in a semi-realistic neighborhood so we can illustrate the big-picture cap view rather than nailing these contract projections as precisely as possible.

 

Shesterkin, Lafrenière and Miller would cost a combined $24.3 million with the aforementioned estimates. New York would be left with $9.5 million of cap space in this hypothetical scenario, which is peanuts considering there’d only be 13 players signed, including the need for another top-six forward and top-four defenseman (Lindgren’s not included because he’ll be a pending UFA). The Rangers probably can’t afford to re-sign Lindgren next summer and will need to find a way to offload the final year of Jacob Trouba’s $8 million ticket next summer. Without a Trouba trade, it’ll be exceptionally difficult for the club to maintain its Stanley Cup contender status given how expensive their best players will be in 2025-26.

 

 

 

The Athletic looks at the bigger picture here, and it's starting to get uncomfortable.

 

 

[Phil]

Seems about right. Shesterkin is ostensibly 11. Lafreniere is probably signing a mirror deal to Slavkovsky (7.5). Miller probably 6.5.

 

They're gonna burn Trouba at the stake to get rid of his final year and Lindgren is 100% gone. Better hope their drafting has been good, because we're about to rely heavily on a lot of dirt cheap reinforcements to fill out the rest of the roster for the next 4–6 years.

[LindG1000]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Seems about right. Shesterkin is ostensibly 11. Lafreniere is probably signing a mirror deal to Slavkovsky (7.5). Miller probably 6.5.

 

They're gonna burn Trouba at the stake to get rid of his final year and Lindgren is 100% gone. Better hope their drafting has been good, because we're about to rely heavily on a lot of dirt cheap reinforcements to fill out the rest of the roster for the next 4–6 years.

 

I think we're gonna need to see Robertson get an extended look this year. Not necessarily because he's ready or good, but because he might be necessary for a little while until Mancini and Emery are able/ready to jump. As things stand, our D looks something like this going into next year.

 

Miller-Fox

Jones-Schneider

????-Trouba

 

Trouba's gotta go for cap reasons. We're going to need at least 2 ELC-or comparable D to take over here. I expect we'll see a few guys get some good looks this year. especially on the left side. Unfortunately for us, that list is Mackey, Scanlin, Robertson, and Ben Harpur. 

[Phil]

Mancini, as far as I understand, is already ahead of him. Robertson feels like the defensive version of Christian Thomas. He's just gonna get traded at some point IMO.

 

The Rangers will sign stop gaps if they need to, but my point is that they're about to spend so much so quickly that they're going to be completely locked in (they kind of already are). There's going to be next to no wiggle room on the roster for free agents grabs or even for younger guys to play up and take big roles.

[Albatrosss]

4 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

I know a lot of folks on here wouldn't want to do that kind of deal, but there's going to be a ton of pressure on Drury to get something done. It's ultimately why I think they will agree on something, and he'll be back. I'd be pretty shocked if isn't.

it takes two to tango, and if some other GM hints on possibly paying Shesty, i'm sure he'll walk.  IMO anything over $9M would be a disaster.  i even think $9M is too much but i can live with it. 

[Sharpshooter]

Shesterkin isn't taking 9M from anybody. 11M or so is the floor, in my opinion, for what it will take to sign him. I don't think the term is too bad for a top goalie who's still very much in his prime. I could understand how injuries may be a concern, but you can say that about most. I'm curious to see how consistent he is this season. Last year there was that long stretch where he was not very good and Quick outplayed him badly. If we don't have Quick last year, we're probably not finishing with the best record. So, shoring up his consistently will do wonders for him when it comes time to negotiate.

[LindG1000]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mancini, as far as I understand, is already ahead of him. Robertson feels like the defensive version of Christian Thomas. He's just gonna get traded at some point IMO.

 

The Rangers will sign stop gaps if they need to, but my point is that they're about to spend so much so quickly that they're going to be completely locked in (they kind of already are). There's going to be next to no wiggle room on the roster for free agents grabs or even for younger guys to play up and take big roles.

 

I'm just bracing for the realities that feel very clear to me.

 

Trouba is GOING to get traded. This is inevitable if Shesterkin signs a contract, and probably inevitable if he doesn't.

Lindgren is absolutely going somewhere else. We can't afford his ask, and dude should get a bag. 

Kakko is almost certain to get traded at some point this season. Even a vastly improved Kakko faces strong competition for his roster spot this year, and we can't afford the ask if he does go off.

We're going to start the Kreider trade talk and likely the Chytil trade talk by the end of this season. Both have two years left after this one.

I don't think Panarin gets traded, but his next contract is going to be a big question mark as the season ends. 

[LindG1000]

Just now, Sharpshooter said:

Shesterkin isn't taking 9M from anybody. 11M or so is the floor, in my opinion, for what it will take to sign him. I don't think the term is too bad for a top goalie who's still very much in his prime. I could understand how injuries may be a concern, but you can say that about most. I'm curious to see how consistent he is this season. Last year there was that long stretch where he was not very good and Quick outplayed him badly. If we don't have Quick last year, we're probably not finishing with the best record. So, shoring up his consistently will do wonders for him when it comes time to negotiate.

I'd almost rather do 12 for 5 years than 11 for 8, tbh. 

 

Would completely understand Shesterkin not agreeing, but....

[Sharpshooter]

Just now, LindG1000 said:

I'd almost rather do 12 for 5 years than 11 for 8, tbh. 

 

Would completely understand Shesterkin not agreeing, but....

That wouldn't be too bad, but I'm sure he wants both terms and money. I will be surprised if the term is less than the max amount.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'm just bracing for the realities that feel very clear to me.

 

Trouba is GOING to get traded. This is inevitable if Shesterkin signs a contract, and probably inevitable if he doesn't.

Lindgren is absolutely going somewhere else. We can't afford his ask, and dude should get a bag. 

Kakko is almost certain to get traded at some point this season. Even a vastly improved Kakko faces strong competition for his roster spot this year, and we can't afford the ask if he does go off.

We're going to start the Kreider trade talk and likely the Chytil trade talk by the end of this season. Both have two years left after this one.

I don't think Panarin gets traded, but his next contract is going to be a big question mark as the season ends. 

 

In order:

Trouba, yes.
Lindgren, yes.
Kakko, yup, or after this season.

Kreider, nope, doubt it. He and Zib are linked for eternity IMO.

Chytil, maybe. I have no real feel on that because none of us know how long he'll stay healthy.

Panarin, I don't think gets traded either, but I don't think he gets re-signed, either.

[Pete]

8 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

I'm just bracing for the realities that feel very clear to me.

 

Trouba is GOING to get traded. This is inevitable if Shesterkin signs a contract, and probably inevitable if he doesn't.

Lindgren is absolutely going somewhere else. We can't afford his ask, and dude should get a bag. 

Kakko is almost certain to get traded at some point this season. Even a vastly improved Kakko faces strong competition for his roster spot this year, and we can't afford the ask if he does go off.

We're going to start the Kreider trade talk and likely the Chytil trade talk by the end of this season. Both have two years left after this one.

I don't think Panarin gets traded, but his next contract is going to be a big question mark as the season ends. 

A vastly improved Kakko makes him 1RW and likely retained on a reasonable deal and isn't going anywhere. 

[Sharpshooter]

It would be really nice to see that vastly improved Kakko. lol Him getting better while still under a reasonable deal would do wonders given their current financial situation. As I mentioned in another thread, the Rangers getting improved play and increased production from their young players is vital.

Edited Monday at 05:12 PM by Sharpshooter

[LindG1000]

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

A vastly improved Kakko makes him 1RW and likely retained on a reasonable deal and isn't going anywhere. 

 

I don't think the math works without a trade elsewhere. Trouba, specifically.

 

If we don't trade Trouba and we accept the 92m cap + the current projections on Shesterkin, Lafreniere, and Miller, we've got 10m or so to handle 8-10 roster spots. Some are gimmes—Othmann and Perreault making the jump, or Cuylle/Rempe/Edstrom re-signing for reasonably cheap —but you're still on 5m or so at that point to handle a backup goalie, at least 2 defenders, and probably a mid-six wing.

[Br4d]

I don't think the Rangers have a prayer at getting Laf for an AAV of $7M unless he stays at the same level he was at last year and I think he's going to beat that by a bunch.

 

I'm thinking $12M AAV is the figure we'll see *if* we're really happy with him after this year and I think we will be.

[Albatrosss]

so the options are sign Shesty and gut the team or let him go and shore up on offense and defense.  Not really a tough decision