Walker Shesterkin Aiming for Historic Contract; Rejects 8-Year/$88M Deal ($11M AAV)

[Sharpshooter]

The stuff that happened with Goodrow will be child's play in comparison to what we're in store for next offseason.

[BrooksBurner]

The Rangers can free up $4 million with a Trouba buyout, just like they could have done this year. I don't think they would need more than that to fit Igor's eventual new contract in.

 

It's probably not worth thinking much about right now. A lot can change. One disappointing playoff run, or mediocre year, and the talk probably wouldn't be "how do we run it back, just minus Trouba".

[Pete]

They don't want a buyout on the cap, or they'd have done it.

[LindG1000]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

This is going to be the fuckery.

 

In order to sign Igor, they have to move Trouba. His list is due 7/1, same day UFA opens, same deal as this summer just passed. There's no way way can sign Igor until you know the terms of a Trouba trade. 

 

It's going to be fucking sticky.

I wonder if Drury can twist the knife on Shesterkin a little by moving to lock up Laf and Miller first and reducing the available money pool. It's a lot harder to argue for something absurd when the possibility of getting it doesn't exist anymore. 

 

There are a good number of assumptions at play in the "Shesterkin will get his ask from UFA" idea. Historically speaking, UFA is not terribly kind to goaltenders. The only one that actually got paid off the top of my head - Bob? Bryzgalov took a cap circumvention deal and got paid too, I guess,  but it isn't a lot. Part of it is that top goalies don't reach UFA, but part of it is that the kind of money he would want isn't out there on a fit team. The Rangers are - for once - appearing to do the right thing and not negotiating against themselves here.

 

Given the league's general trend and attitude toward goalies, I don't think many teams will move heaven and earth for him. When you whittle down the list of "can afford him, needs a goalie, meets his non-hockey demands," you're down to one or two landing spots. Off the top of my head, it's Chicago and maybe one more. 

 

 

 

[phillyb]

I swear to fucking god, if Igor goes to the Hawks, I’ma be pisssssssed. But hey, I’ll get to see him? Fuck that lol

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

I wonder if Drury can twist the knife on Shesterkin a little by moving to lock up Laf and Miller first and reducing the available money pool. It's a lot harder to argue for something absurd when the possibility of getting it doesn't exist anymore. 

 

There are a good number of assumptions at play in the "Shesterkin will get his ask from UFA" idea. Historically speaking, UFA is not terribly kind to goaltenders. The only one that actually got paid off the top of my head - Bob? Bryzgalov took a cap circumvention deal and got paid too, I guess,  but it isn't a lot. Part of it is that top goalies don't reach UFA, but part of it is that the kind of money he would want isn't out there on a fit team. The Rangers are - for once - appearing to do the right thing and not negotiating against themselves here.

 

Given the league's general trend and attitude toward goalies, I don't think many teams will move heaven and earth for him. When you whittle down the list of "can afford him, needs a goalie, meets his non-hockey demands," you're down to one or two landing spots. Off the top of my head, it's Chicago and maybe one more. 

 

 

 

 

Bob is the only one in recent memory, and his deal was universally panned. It still kind of is, even though he just won a Cup. Because paying a goalie double digits is pretty much stupid.

[Pete]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Bob is the only one in recent memory, and his deal was universally panned. It still kind of is, even though he just won a Cup. Because paying a goalie double digits is pretty much stupid.

When we talk about the role of luck in winning a Stanley Cup, it's not just on ice luck. 

 

Florida was incredibly lucky that they were getting outsized contributions from a number of players, that Tkachuk wanted a trade and agreed to FLA the exact same offseason Hurberdeau was coming off an MVP level year that he never even came close to replicating, that Calgary gave Bennett away, etc.

 

That contract could have crippled them if everything else didn't go right. 

Edited September 23 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

44 minutes ago, Pete said:

They don't want a buyout on the cap, or they'd have done it.

 

No GM wants a buyout on the cap. A 2 year dead cap (4/2) is not as damaging as a 4 year dead cap (4/4/2/2). It was also a want, not a need, to get rid of Trouba's cap this past summer. Next summer might be more need-based.

[Pete]

3 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

No GM wants a buyout on the cap. A 2 year dead cap (4/2) is not as damaging as a 4 year dead cap (4/4/2/2). It was also a want, not a need, to get rid of Trouba's cap this past summer. Next summer might be more need-based.

Yea, the last part is true. He simply can't be here past this season.

 

But they have an issue with $4M on the cap next offseason. Too many people to pay. I don't see how they afford everybody with 4 million in dead cap. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

The Rangers can free up $4 million with a Trouba buyout, just like they could have done this year. I don't think they would need more than that to fit Igor's eventual new contract in.

 

It's probably not worth thinking much about right now. A lot can change. One disappointing playoff run, or mediocre year, and the talk probably wouldn't be "how do we run it back, just minus Trouba".

 

I don't think this is necessary. They're gonna dump him after this year because his trade protection shifts, either to a 15-team list, or a 12-team list. I'm not sure when the lists are due, or how the timing works, but CapWages notes: 2024-25: Player submits a 15 team no trade list; 2025-26: Player submits a 12 team no trade list.

 

He flexed his protection muscle to stay this year, but I think he knows more than anyone that this is his last year in New York.

[RangersIn7]

12 minutes ago, Pete said:

Yea, the last part is true. He simply can't be here past this season.

 

But they have an issue with $4M on the cap next offseason. Too many people to pay. I don't see how they afford everybody with 4 million in dead cap. 

They aren’t buying him out.

1 year of retention is better than 2 years of dead cap. 
 

Drury doesn’t strike me as a guy that’s comfortable with dead cap with a contending team.

 

Dead cap is fine if you’re rebuilding.

They are not.

Edited September 23 by RangersIn7

[LindG1000]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I don't think this is necessary. They're gonna dump him after this year because his trade protection shifts, either to a 15-team list, or a 12-team list. I'm not sure when the lists are due, or how the timing works, but CapWages notes: 2024-25: Player submits a 15 team no trade list; 2025-26: Player submits a 12 team no trade list.

 

He flexed his protection muscle to stay this year, but I think he knows more than anyone that this is his last year in New York.

 

He shifts to a 12 team at the start of the new league year, which would be 7/1. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, LindG1000 said:

 

He shifts to a 12 team at the start of the new league year, which would be 7/1. 

 

Great, so he has a 15-team list now. And that list goes to 12 on 7/1?

 

I stand by what I said: they're dumping him. Fait accompli.

[jsm7302]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I don't think this is necessary. They're gonna dump him after this year because his trade protection shifts, either to a 15-team list, or a 12-team list. I'm not sure when the lists are due, or how the timing works, but CapWages notes: 2024-25: Player submits a 15 team no trade list; 2025-26: Player submits a 12 team no trade list.

 

He flexed his protection muscle to stay this year, but I think he knows more than anyone that this is his last year in New York.

100% and if the reports were accurate, he wasnt trying to be a jerk. He had planned with his family to have his wife do her residency here during his trade protection then all bets were off. She had some professional delays which delayed her residency a year and in turn he was unprotected and she wasn't done. I don't blame him for trying to tip the scales in his direction a bit. Just wish he did it differently moreso by making himself indispensable in the playoffs last year, instead it came down to games. However, I think EVERYONE knows he's gone after this year. Id imagine early off season next year so he can settle in wherever he goes. I'm thinking he ends up in San Jose. You read it here first.

[LindG1000]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Great, so he has a 15-team list now. And that list goes to 12 on 7/1?

 

I stand by what I said: they're dumping him. Fait accompli.

 

I think we're dangerously close to management malpractice if he's a Ranger next October.

[Phil]

Just now, LindG1000 said:

 

I think we're dangerously close to management malpractice if he's a Ranger next October.

 

If he is, it's at the direct cost of someone measurably more important (Lafreniere, Miller, or Shesterkin).

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

I don't think this is necessary. They're gonna dump him after this year because his trade protection shifts, either to a 15-team list, or a 12-team list. I'm not sure when the lists are due, or how the timing works, but CapWages notes: 2024-25: Player submits a 15 team no trade list; 2025-26: Player submits a 12 team no trade list.

 

He flexed his protection muscle to stay this year, but I think he knows more than anyone that this is his last year in New York.

Does the slightly lesser trade protection even matter? He found a way around that this summer. It seems he’d be able to do it again if he wanted to. That again would leave a buyout as the alternative to getting some space back.

Edited September 23 by BrooksBurner

[Phil]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

Does the slightly lesser trade protection even matter? He found a way around that this summer. It seems he’d be able to do it again if he wanted to.

 

Recent reporting indicated that he has no intention of reporting to any team he was traded to. That is why the trade died. No one was going to give up any assets for a player who wouldn't play for them, and the only reason he did that is to align with his wife's residency. Both factors change moving forward.

 

No matter how much he's panned by Twitter fans, I promise you, NHL GMs feel otherwise. They're not going to struggle to find interested parties.

[Pete]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Recent reporting indicated that he has no intention of reporting to any team he was traded to. That is why the trade died. No one was going to give up any assets for a player who wouldn't play for them, and the only reason he did that is to align with his wife's residency. Both factors change moving forward.

 

No matter how much he's panned by Twitter fans, I promise you, NHL GMs feel otherwise. They're not going to struggle to find interested parties.

Bingo. Will come down to how much NYR will need to retain, or a team that needs to reach the cap floor (if there are any on his list).

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Pete said:

Bingo. Will come down to how much NYR will need to retain, or a team that needs to reach the cap floor (if there are any on his list).

 

Yup. I don't even think they need to go that far. Detroit were heavy in on him (for obvious reasons — his bestie Copp, and being a Michigan guy). They haven't been a playoff team, but they're not a bottom feeder, either.

 

This feels like a scenario where he's gonna get moved to a half decent roster who truly value his leadership and his physicality and are willing to eat the cap hit because they think his value as a person and mentor will help them.

 

Gun to my head, the two teams I think would want him most are Detroit and Buffalo. Detroit has already shown interest. Buffalo are in the same boat — badly want to make the playoffs, and their right side is thin as fuck. It goes oft-injured Dahlin, then Jokiharju, and Connor Clifton.

[BrooksBurner]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Recent reporting indicated that he has no intention of reporting to any team he was traded to. That is why the trade died. No one was going to give up any assets for a player who wouldn't play for them, and the only reason he did that is to align with his wife's residency. Both factors change moving forward.

 

No matter how much he's panned by Twitter fans, I promise you, NHL GMs feel otherwise. They're not going to struggle to find interested parties.

It’s hypothetical but nothing changes if he maintains the “won’t report” attitude. He could have no trade protection at all and until it becomes known he changes his tune, nobody would be interested.

 

What Trouba has done is pave an entirely new way for a player without proper trade protection to prevent a trade by saying they will just refuse to report and the acquiring team is just wasting assets. They probably need to address this in the next CBA, but I’m not sure how you safeguard against it from happening.

Edited September 23 by BrooksBurner

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

It’s hypothetical but nothing changes if he maintains the “won’t report” attitude. He could have no trade protection at all and until it becomes known he changes his tune, nobody would be interested.

 

What Trouba has done is pave an entirely new way for a player without proper trade protection to prevent a trade by saying they will just refuse to report and the acquiring team is just wasting assets. They probably need to address this in the next CBA, but I’m not sure how you safeguard against it from happening.

 

You can't, and this isn't new. This has happened in the past. Chad Kilger, years ago, got traded from Toronto to Florida and refused to report. He ended up basically just retiring and becoming a firefighter, I think. Maybe a few players get real brazen and decide to pull the same card, but I doubt it, because what Trouba did here wasn't a power trip to prevent being traded at all. It was very specifically based on timing with regard to his wife's final year of residency.

[Keirik]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

You can't, and this isn't new. This has happened in the past. Chad Kilger, years ago, got traded from Toronto to Florida and refused to report. He ended up basically just retiring and becoming a firefighter, I think. 

Think he became the lead singer of Nickleback.....

[Pete]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

You can't, and this isn't new. This has happened in the past. Chad Kilger, years ago, got traded from Toronto to Florida and refused to report. He ended up basically just retiring and becoming a firefighter, I think. Maybe a few players get real brazen and decide to pull the same card, but I doubt it, because what Trouba did here wasn't a power trip to prevent being traded at all. It was very specifically based on timing with regard to his wife's final year of residency.

Pure speculation, but you'd think Drury and Trouba have an understanding that this is a 1-year thing, or I believe there'd have been a grievance and investigation.

 

There's so much smoke around it that you'd think if he pulled the same shit next year, there would be an issue. They'd probably just have to move him for someone else's headache straight up and then have the other team terminate for failure to report...Or he sits a year and has his contract tolled.

 

There's no way he's a Ranger this time next year, IMO.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Pure speculation, but you'd think Drury and Trouba have an understanding that this is a 1-year thing, or I believe there'd have been a grievance and investigation.

 

There's so much smoke around it that you'd think if he pulled the same shit next year, there would be an issue. They'd probably just have to move him for someone else's headache straight up and then have the other team terminate for failure to report...Or he sits a year and has his contract tolled.

 

There's no way he's a Ranger this time next year, IMO.

 

Agreed. Depending on the team, you can find a hockey trade, 100%. When they were talking with Detroit, for example, I said just take back Jeff Petry and buy out the final year of his deal.

 

If it were Buffalo, Connor Clifton has one more year at like $3.3 million with no trade protection. Same idea. Trouba for Clifton, one-for-one, then buy out the final year. Two years at $1.1 million buyout penalty. Easy.

 

If it's Detroit again, Chiarot (4.75x1 remaining — 2.833x2 buyout) or Holl (3.4x1 — 2.26x2 buyout) qualify for the same scenario.