Walker Shesterkin Aiming for Historic Contract; Rejects 8-Year/$88M Deal ($11M AAV)

[Albatrosss]

there's only one exception to not wanting to sign Shesty--if he wins the cup.  Otherwise this a huge danger zone contract

 

hi Josh 

[BrooksBurner]

3 minutes ago, Albatrosss said:

there's only one exception to not wanting to sign Shesty--if he wins the cup.  Otherwise this a huge danger zone contract

 

hi Josh 

No way! Danger zone is not signing your elite goaltender, so you can sign two danger zone contracts like Ullmark and re-upping Reilly Smith

Edited October 8 by BrooksBurner

[Pete]

9 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

I started talking about Plan A a year and a half ago after the Devils exit, when it was painfully obvious what really needed to happen.

That's all well and good, but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. You know why it doesn't matter? Because they simply couldn't have done what you wanted them to do anyway, because of trade protection and we saw what happened this summer. 

 

It's pretty much like saying the Rangers would have a Cup by now if they only would have drafted Connor McDavid. 

 

And frankly the idea that they should now overpay this goalie and surround him with players who simply are not as good as the players we already have and expect them to win a cup... Yeah I just don't know about that one. You might not like the players because they leave something to be desired in the playoffs but the reality is that it's really hard to shut down those players. It's not easy to stop point per game players. So adding lesser players and expecting a better outcome is bananas to me. 

[Albatrosss]

6 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

No way! Danger zone is not signing your elite goaltender, so you can sign two danger zone contracts like Ullmark and re-upping Reilly Smith

i'll take Ullmark over $12M Shesty

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Ok, here's the crux of it. You take away Panarin, Trouba, and Igor's current cap hits and you have 25.2 million. Given the choices that have been made to date, I'll keep Igor around 12 and use the $13 million to start re-shaping the roster for Fox/Lafreniere primes. The disclaimer here is that this is Plan B for me. I started talking about Plan A a year and a half ago after the Devils exit, when it was painfully obvious what really needed to happen.

 

Hang on, hang on — under what time frame? Panarin and Trouba both have a year left. I think we both agree Trouba will be liquidated in whatever way they have to this summer, but are you also operating under the assumption that Panarin will as well? Because that's the only way you actually get to that number over one fiscal year.

 

Then, if so, what is your plan to replace Panarin? I think you'd agree that while he's been a dismal failure in the postseason, they're going to struggle mightily to even remotely reproduce his RS output (which is largely what positions the team to be a playoff contender in the first place).

[Pete]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Hang on, hang on — under what time frame? Panarin and Trouba both have a year left. I think we both agree Trouba will be liquidated in whatever way they have to this summer, but are you also operating under the assumption that Panarin will as well? Because that's the only way you actually get to that number over one fiscal year.

 

Then, if so, what is your plan to replace Panarin? I think you'd agree that while he's been a dismal failure in the postseason, they're going to struggle mightily to even remotely reproduce his RS output (which is largely what positions the team to be a playoff contender in the first place).

That's the point I keep making, all I hear is "got to get rid of Panarin so we can be better in the playoffs"... With no plan to actually get in the playoffs. 

[Valriera]

This is the world's easiest situation of "let him walk for nothing."

 

He's a great goalie on a great contract on a great team now. Let's go win the cup and forget about the rest. That contract is not how you build a great team. 

[Pete]

25 minutes ago, Valriera said:

This is the world's easiest situation of "let him walk for nothing."

 

He's a great goalie on a great contract on a great team now. Let's go win the cup and forget about the rest. That contract is not how you build a great team. 

[Sharpshooter]

So, it's going to be 12-12.5 million in the offseason. Got it.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

So, it's going to be 12-12.5 million in the offseason. Got it.

 

[Sharpshooter]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Prepare yourselves now for this inenvitibility. 

[BrooksBurner]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

 

Hang on, hang on — under what time frame? Panarin and Trouba both have a year left. I think we both agree Trouba will be liquidated in whatever way they have to this summer, but are you also operating under the assumption that Panarin will as well? Because that's the only way you actually get to that number over one fiscal year.

 

Then, if so, what is your plan to replace Panarin? I think you'd agree that while he's been a dismal failure in the postseason, they're going to struggle mightily to even remotely reproduce his RS output (which is largely what positions the team to be a playoff contender in the first place).

Panarin’s cap hit out is possible after this season, but most likely it is summer 2026. That is when Drury will have the opportunity to shape the roster.

 

We don’t know right now what exactly the team will need at that point. What they shouldn’t need is a goalie

[jsm7302]

Two things that have annoyed me immensely with the players in goal here. One was Georgiev's nasty sneer after every game he backed up Shesty and barely saying good game. Second thing is the greed from this guy. TEAM FIRST. Always should be. Drury should not bow to this guy. He is pretty much saying the balls in his court because NYR need him. Forget it!

[Sod16]

11 over 8 is the same as over 12.5 over 7.  Any takers around the league in a city where he wants to go at 12.5?  Mind you, the year after a seven year contract, during which he will be 37, he will probably only be a No. 2 making a mil or two.

[Art20c]

I just don’t get it. Where that confidence that he will definitely get 12 mil somewhere comes from? What if he’s got a bad year? What if he gets seriously injured during this season? Then what? How much he can get then? Rather than taking 88 mil guaranteed no matter what, he’s willing to take chances for a whooping amount of 8 mil collected in the period of 8 years  which is the diff between 11 and 12 for 8 years. Beats me. 

[BrooksBurner]

My guess is this deal gets done very soon, maybe even tomorrow before the game. Boston put pressure on Swayman with the number leak, and they settled for a hair more. Drury just took a page out of their book. It'll be 11.25-11.5 X 8 years. If Shesterkin doesn't agree to that, I'd be inclined to believe that maybe he just doesn't want to stay in New York, and it's not all about the money.

Edited October 9 by BrooksBurner

[SaveByRichter35]

I don't wish ill will on pro athletes...except Michael Vick, fuck that guy.  But it sure would be a son of a bitch if something happens to him and he has some kind of career ending injury and he doesn't have a guaranteed $88M coming to him over the next 8 years and instead only has what he made over the last 5.

[Jdog99]

Yea, its an insane bet hes making

[Sharpshooter]

Yeah, really. I agree with BB, though, and think it will get done. I don't know if it will be before the opener tonight, but I still think they work something out in the offseason. That might not be the worst thing, either. See how good/consistent he is, if he can stay healthy, stuff like that, before really committing.

[jsm7302]

53- 58- 55

That's the number of games Shesty played the last three seasons. He wants to make the most of anyone in the roster playing 67% of the games.

 

75-82-82

Panarin

 

81-82-81

Zibanejad

 

78-82-72

Fox

 

81-79-82

Kreider

 

So salary per game played he would absolutely be the highest paid Ranger.

[Sharpshooter]

That's what he wants. He wants to be the highest paid goaltender ever and the highest paid Ranger ever because he's special (if you ask him).

[Pete]

Quote

Contrast the five goalies at that number with the 81 forwards and 42 defensemen making more than $6.4 million, and it’s a pretty large divide. Those figures equate to under 8 percent of the regular goaltenders in the game making more than 7.27 percent of the cap, compared to 21 percent of forwards and 22 percent of defensemen hitting that mark.

 

The biggest reason for the trend?

 

Well, quite simply, general managers don’t want to pay them. Even as some of the top names in the goalie guild are making noise about wanting a bigger piece of the pie, behind the scenes, executives will tell you they can’t afford to bet on them the way they will a top goal scorer or No. 1 defenseman.

 

Here’s why.

Quote

Take the past 12 years, going back to the last lockout in 2012. If we separate the top 10 goalies into three-year spans (using goals saved above expected and a minimum of 90 games played) in that period, we get a list that looks like so, in order of performance:

2013-15: Henrik Lundqvist, Carey Price, Cory Schneider, Semyon Varlamov, Kari Lehtonen, Jaroslav Halak, Tuukka Rask, Jonathan Bernier, Corey Crawford, Ben Bishop

2016-18: John Gibson, Jonathan Quick, Sergei Bobrovsky, Corey Crawford, Braden Holtby, Antti Raanta, Cam Talbot, Frederik Andersen, Henrik Lundqvist, Mike Smith

2019-21: Robin Lehner, Connor Hellebuyck, Ben Bishop, Petr Mrázek, Jordan Binnington, Darcy Kuemper, Juuse Saros, John Gibson, Marc-André Fleury, Andrei Vasilevskiy

2022-24: Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, Juuse Saros, Linus Ullmark, Frederik Andersen, Jacob Markström, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman, Stuart Skinner

 

There simply aren’t a lot of repeat names there, outside of the very elite like Lundqvist and Hellebuyck, who show up twice. What you do get is a ton of one-and-done types, who perform for two or three seasons and then sink back to mediocrity.

 

And that appears to hold true no matter how you slice up the data.

Quote

He concluded a goalie’s peak can extend a bit later than a skater’s, typically into their late 20s, but the falloff is dramatic by around 34, even for top goalies.

 

This is particularly relevant regarding Shesterkin, whose next contract won’t kick in until he is almost 30 years old. A $12 million deal over eight years could age poorly by about its midway point, based on historical norms for similar players.

 

And that might be a best-case scenario. The modern style of goaltending is very hard on players’ bodies, and by the time they reach their late 20s, they’ve often been playing high-level goal for close to 15 years. Some starters have had to battle through multiple hip surgeries and other lower-body injuries, playing at diminished capacity for years. Some surgeons now seem to make their living putting goalies back together again.

Quote

With skaters, you can sign them to big, bloated contracts as free agents and ride out the later years by playing them down the lineup. Typically, skaters maintain their defensive ability later in their careers too, adding an extra benefit to their play that extends their utility...

 

...That’s typically not going to be the case for an $11 million goalie in their mid-30s, as that high of a salary will limit how much you can pay a backup and force you to rely on the aging No. 1 for 50-plus games and then the postseason.

 

The other thing is that, unlike goaltenders, there are a remarkable number of skaters over the age of 33 playing at a high level. Brent Burns, Anze Kopitar, Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby, Mats Zuccarello, Brad Marchand, Claude Giroux, Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin, Ryan McDonagh, Chris Tanev, Erik Karlsson, John Carlson, Drew Doughty, Nazem Kadri, Alex Pietrangelo, John Tavares, Steven Stamkos and Roman Josi are basically all more effective everyday players than almost any goaltender in the same age bracket.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5829517/2024/10/09/nhl-goalie-salary-contract-swayman-shesterkin?source=user-shared-article

 

Do not pay this man. 

Edited October 9 by Pete

[Ozzy]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5829517/2024/10/09/nhl-goalie-salary-contract-swayman-shesterkin?source=user-shared-article

 

Do not pay this man. 

 

[Sharpshooter]

Yeah, he's at a tricky age for long-term contracts, and this (the contract) will most definitely age worse than the Lundqvist extension. There are injury, durability and consistency concerns already with him as great as he's been.

[BrooksBurner]

4 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Yeah, he's at a tricky age for long-term contracts, and this (the contract) will most definitely age worse than the Lundqvist extension. There are injury, durability and consistency concerns already with him as great as he's been.

This is valid, and the risky part of it.