Walker Shesterkin Aiming for Historic Contract; Rejects 8-Year/$88M Deal ($11M AAV)

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

But there's no one like Swayman available.

 

Most of the other good goalies have recently re-signed somewhere, no? Hellebuyck, Swayman, Ullmark, Markstrom.

 

We won't get a tier 2 goalie at 7-8m, we'll have to overpay for a tier 3 goalie at 5-7m, and as Phil recently proved - good goalies tend to be good for 2-3 years max. It's danger-zone deluxe and we'll probably regret that one way before it's halfway done.

 

None of that is a reason to pay Shesterkin.

 

And we don't know who's available via trade. Shit we don't even know how good Garand could be. Allaire isn't retired yet. 

 

I'd rather regret 7 million against the cap than 12+. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

8 minutes ago, Pete said:

If the money is used to find a legitimate right wing like Raantanen or shore up the defense (bye Lindgren, Trouba, etc.) then you make the team less reliant on goaltending. 

 

When is the last time a team that was completely reliant on goaltending won a cup?

Again - the saving we potentially make on not re-signing Shesterkin won't give us enough money to re-sign someone like Rantanen. And there's no one like Rantanen available.

 

Do you have a realistic lineup for next season without Shesterkin?

[Sharpshooter]

Since he declined their most recent offer, I guess talks are officially shelved until the offseason? With a couple of days before the home opener, it would be cool if they got something done to add some more drama and excitement to the opening ceremonies. lol

[Pete]

16 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

Again - the saving we potentially make on not re-signing Shesterkin won't give us enough money to re-sign someone like Rantanen. And there's no one like Rantanen available.

 

Do you have a realistic lineup for next season without Shesterkin?

Raantanen is going to be unrestricted. Trouba + Shesty hit probably gets you Raantanen. 

 

That's money well spent. 

 

And no, I'm not posting lineups because that's just one of many reasons not to pay goalies double digits for 8 years, especially ones who are going to be 30 when the contract starts. 

 

 

Edited October 10 by Pete

[RJWantsTheCup]

Looking at goalies making less than 7M I wouldn't want any of them except Oettinger & Demko and I doubt the Rangers can get either one of them.

[Sharpshooter]

4 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Looking at goalies making less than 7M I wouldn't want any of them except Oettinger & Demko and I doubt the Rangers can get either one of them.

They'll probably be making Igor-like money eventually in their next contracts anyway. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

5 minutes ago, Pete said:

Raantanen is going to be unrestricted. Trouba + Shesty hit probably gets you Raantanen. 

 

That's money well spent. 

 

And no, I'm not posting lineups because that's just one of many reasons not to pay goalies double digits for 8 years, especially ones who are going to be 30 when the contract starts. 

 

 

So you think Rantanen + Georgiev instead of Shesterkin + Kakko would've given us a cup the last three years?

 

4 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Looking at goalies making less than 7M I wouldn't want any of them except Oettinger & Demko and I doubt the Rangers can get either one of them.

This is the way we need to look at it. If we're gonna let the best goalie on the planet walk for nothing we HAVE to have a plan. If the plan is to have a 6-7m goalie instead then I want some names, cause there's not many available that would do a decent job.

[Pete]

Just now, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

So you think Rantanen + Georgiev instead of Shesterkin + Kakko would've given us a cup the last three years?

Nobody said that and that's not even what's being debated lol. 

[Pete]

1 minute ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

This is the way we need to look at it. If we're gonna let the best goalie on the planet walk for nothing we HAVE to have a plan. If the plan is to have a 6-7m goalie instead then I want some names, cause there's not many available that would do a decent job.

Regardless of whether he signs here or not, the window as we know it is over after this season. 

 

He's either going to walk and they will have to take their chances with the next goalie up whoever he is, or he's going to sign for an astronomical number and it's going to cost you some high-end players or you will have to field half a team of rookies or League minimum guys and hope Lafreniere and Fox are enough to get you into the playoffs where anything can happen. 

 

Neither one of those are particularly appealing, but once you layer in all the data showing why teams don't pay goalies double digits, it's really not a hard decision.

 

Let him play out the season, let him test the market, and if somebody wants to give him 13 million I'll be glad it isn't us. 

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

Regardless of whether he signs here or not, the window as we know it is over after this season. 

 

He's either going to walk and they will have to take their chances with the next goalie up whoever he is, or he's going to sign for an astronomical number and it's going to cost you some high-end players or you will have to field half a team of rookies or League minimum guys and hope Lafreniere and Fox are enough to get you into the playoffs where anything can happen. 

 

Neither one of those are particularly appealing, but once you layer in all the data showing why teams don't pay goalies double digits, it's really not a hard decision.

 

Let him play out the season, let him test the market, and if somebody wants to give him 13 million I'll be glad it isn't us. 

It's not like giving Shesterkin a 6m raise will handicap the entire lineup. Literally just change Trouba with a 2m 3rd pair D and we can ice the exact same lineup (with exception of Trouba of course). Obviously just a hypothetical, but it's to show that we won't have to trade away half the roster to fit in a Shesterkin extension.

 

There's no data showing why teams don't pay goalies double digits. First of all it's already been done, second of all it's all because of the cap. It's all about % of the cap, not the actual number. Many teams have given out 11-13% of the cap to goalies before, which is what Shesterkin is asking for.

 

13m is too much. 11m x 8 and we're all happy

Edited October 10 by Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc

[Ozzy]

I did get a kick out of the in between periods chatter amongst the "analysts".  What did they think Hank was gonna say about having the goalie as the highest paid player???

I fucking laughed at that one.  Listen, I love Hank, but gimme a fucking break!

 

As much as I love and adore Wayne, I wonder what he would've thought about Grant Fuhr asking to make more than him back in the day.  LOL

 

 

 

 

[deejaid]

I keep reading in this thread how the money will work, especially once Panarin’s contract is off the books in two years.  But do people really believe he won’t resign here when his contract is up?  He will be 34,  still more than likely be a point per game player, and loves playing in New York.   I could see him getting a $6M extension at 2-3 years.  I don’t know where that money comes from, but I just don’t see him not on this team in 3 years.

[Pete]

4 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

It's not like giving Shesterkin a 6m raise will handicap the entire lineup. Literally just change Trouba with a 2m 3rd pair D and we can ice the exact same lineup (with exception of Trouba of course). Obviously just a hypothetical, but it's to show that we won't have to trade away half the roster to fit in a Shesterkin extension.

 

There's no data showing why teams don't pay goalies double digits. First of all it's already been done, second of all it's all because of the cap. It's all about % of the cap, not the actual number. Many teams have given out 11-13% of the cap to goalies before, which is what Shesterkin is asking for.

 

13m is too much. 11m x 8 and we're all happy

Yes, there is. It's been posted and it's irrefutable.

 

He already rejected $11x8, so that's out the window.

[Pete]

1 minute ago, deejaid said:

I keep reading in this thread how the money will work, especially once Panarin’s contract is off the books in two years.  But do people really believe he won’t resign here when his contract is up?  He will be 34,  still more than likely be a point per game player, and loves playing in New York.   I could see him getting a $6M extension at 2-3 years.  I don’t know where that money comes from, but I just don’t see him not on this team in 3 years.

Drury doesn't like him. Maybe he likes him better at $6M than at $11+M

[RJWantsTheCup]

There's a lot of if's that need to play out to determine if they can give Shestwerkin a 6M raise.

Can they get rid of Trouba and not take on any large contract?

Can Berard or Othmann replace Reilly Smith?

Can Berard or Othmann replace Kakko?

Can Schneider keep playing LD and replace Lindgren?

Can Mancini be a full time NHL D?

Can Jones be a full time NHL D?

In a perfect world all those answers would be yes and they can probably make an 11.5M or so contract work with not a whole lot of roster juggling going on.

In some ways it's better that he rejected the latest offer so we can all see how things play out.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

Yes, there is. It's been posted and it's irrefutable.

 

He already rejected $11x8, so that's out the window.

It's irrefutable that no teams pays a goalie double digits, even when the reigning cup champions have a goalie making 10m. Interesting...

[RJWantsTheCup]

Since nobody else will make an attempt

Panarin 11.6 - Trocheck 5.6 - Lafraniere 9.0

Kreider 6.5 - Zibanejad 8.5 - Berard .86

Cuylle 1.5 - Chytil 4.4 - Othmann .86

Edstrom 1.0 - Carrick 1.0 - Rempe .85

Brodzinski - .78

 

Miller 6.0 - Fox 9.5

Schneider 2.2 - Mancini .87

Jones 1.5 - Ruhwedel 1.0

Mackey .77

 

Shesterkin 11.5

Garand 1.0

 

86M 

 

Leaves 6.5M if I did my math right.

 

[Pete]

7 minutes ago, Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc said:

It's irrefutable that no teams pays a goalie double digits, even when the reigning cup champions have a goalie making 10m. Interesting...

The data proving out why teams are reluctant to spend double digits on goalies is irrefutable. They often don't stay at the peak of their game for very long, and once they drop off, they drop off hard. Especially after 30. 

 

People keep bringing up Florida, and not only is that the the only proof point anybody can come up with, it also completely discounts Florida's luck. Most of their best players were wildly underpaid. And on top of that everybody is quick to point out how their roster is built completely differently from the Rangers, so how could you hold them up as aspirational when there's no way to get there except by getting as lucky as they did?

 

Please show me anybody besides Florida and Tampa (who had one of the highest paid players on LTIR all year).

 

Edited October 10 by Pete

[BrooksBurner]

12 minutes ago, Pete said:

Cool. You going to post the lineup or not?

 

Because even if they traded Trouba and took no money back, that cash goes directly to Shesterkin.

 

How are you paying Lafreniere and Miller?

 

You aren't losing Lafrenire or Miller because you paid Shesterkin.

 

I don't even know what year lineup you and Phil are asking for.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

Since nobody else will make an attempt

Panarin 11.6 - Trocheck 5.6 - Lafraniere 9.0

Kreider 6.5 - Zibanejad 8.5 - Berard .86

Cuylle 1.5 - Chytil 4.4 - Othmann .86

Edstrom 1.0 - Carrick 1.0 - Rempe .85

Brodzinski - .78

 

Miller 6.0 - Fox 9.5

Schneider 2.2 - Mancini .87

Jones 1.5 - Ruhwedel 1.0

Mackey .77

 

Shesterkin 11.5

Garand 1.0

 

86M 

 

Leaves 6.5M if I did my math right.

 

 

Appreciate the effort. Mathematically, this works, but realistically, this is a major downgrade across the board. The defense is gutted. Like I keep saying, this approach heaps all the teams hopes on outsized contributions from players who shouldn't actually be expected to provide them. Most notably Schneider and Mancini as a 3-4 combo and Berard as a top-six winger.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

You aren't losing Lafrenire or Miller because you paid Shesterkin.

 

I don't even know what year lineup you and Phil are asking for.

 

Next year's. That's what's directly affected.

[Albatrosss]

1 hour ago, lefty9 said:

It doesn't mean it will happen ,the man could have 5more years of top level goaltending 

Fuck those stats ,those stats showed the  Mets where suppose to finish in the bottom of their  division, they are now two rounds into the playoffs and playing in the for national league champoinship.

who?

[RJWantsTheCup]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Appreciate the effort. Mathematically, this works, but realistically, this is a major downgrade across the board. The defense is gutted. Like I keep saying, this approach heaps all the teams hopes on outsized contributions from players who shouldn't actually be expected to provide them. Most notably Schneider and Mancini as a 3-4 combo and Berard as a top-six winger.

RW with Kreider & Zibanejad has been a hole forever so Berard there isn't that big a deal.

Schneider already is playing in top 4 with Trouba as of last night.

There's still 6.5M left to get another wing or d-man.

And like I said earlier there's a lot of if's that have to go right for it to work.

Mainly getting rid of Trouba's contract for nothing.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

Appreciate the effort. Mathematically, this works, but realistically, this is a major downgrade across the board. The defense is gutted. Like I keep saying, this approach heaps all the teams hopes on outsized contributions from players who shouldn't actually be expected to provide them. Most notably Schneider and Mancini as a 3-4 combo and Berard as a top-six winger.

Is it really that gutted? We've removed Trouba (as everyone wants) and Lindgren (who I think most agree has regressed a bit and is a danger to extend long term). Other than that we've not lost anyone. If Schneider is not ready for 2nd pair duties from next year we're kinda screwed anyway.

 

But that's part of the point, we can't know yet who's ready in a year or two. Maybe Mancini and Jones has no problem playing 4-5th D, maybe neither can and we need to replace both of them.

 

He also left 5-6m to improve on the spots you want to. Then the year later you can change Panarin with an 7-9m 1st line winger and have 3-5m extra + increased cap.

[Pete]

23 minutes ago, RJWantsTheCup said:

RW with Kreider & Zibanejad has been a hole forever so Berard there isn't that big a deal.

It is, because this roster isn't better. It's just different, and it fits, but if it doesn't win something in the first 2-3 seasons then you're into Shesterkin's down curve.

Edited October 10 by Pete