Walker Shesterkin Aiming for Historic Contract; Rejects 8-Year/$88M Deal ($11M AAV)

[Pete]

Just now, Valriera said:

They can have both. They just can’t win with a 12m goalie. 

Basically this, and then they have to hope that those two players plus Fox are enough not only to make the playoffs but to make noise, and I just don't see that world coming to fruition. 

[BrooksBurner]

2 minutes ago, Pete said:

Basically this, and then they have to hope that those two players plus Fox are enough not only to make the playoffs but to make noise, and I just don't see that world coming to fruition. 

They will have space to sign other good players after Panarin. Players who can help get them to the playoffs and do a better job than Panarin at getting them through the playoffs. The latter of which is not a high bar to clear.

[Sharpshooter]

Just now, BrooksBurner said:

They will have space to sign other good players after Panarin. Players who can help get them to the playoffs and do a better job than Panarin at getting them through the playoffs. The latter of which is not a high bar to clear.

Yes, Drury can further mold the team into his image. Panarin and Zib are good players, but I really don't think Drury likes either of them. He knows they can be soft, and their style of play isn't necessarily conducive to postseason success. Another example of this roster being a mish mash of two different management teams with different visions.

[Zuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc]

9 minutes ago, Valriera said:

They can have both. They just can’t win with a 12m goalie. 

And this team definitely can't win without an elite goalie saving their asses all the time, so what's the solution? Tear it down and try again in 4-5 years?

[RangersIn7]

1 hour ago, Sharpshooter said:

I still have a feeling they're going to re-sign him and still be able to get Laf done as well. It may be a little tricky, but I think they do it. It (Shesterkin) will have to wait until the offseason for more time for other moves to be made.

 

12 minutes ago, Valriera said:

They can have both. They just can’t win with a 12m goalie. 

They could fit them both in.

Youre just going to sacrifice other spots on the roster. 

[BrooksBurner]

1 minute ago, Sharpshooter said:

Yes, Drury can further mold the team into his image. Panarin and Zib are good players, but I really don't think Drury likes either of them. He knows they can be soft, and their style of play isn't necessarily conducive to postseason success. Another example of this roster being a mish mash of two different management teams with different visions.

Absolutely. I think they can get away with one (will have to be Zibanejad, but at least his contract is manageable).

 

We don’t know if Drury will have to invest Panarin’s cap in another quality skill player or maybe find that Ryan O’Reilly in his prime type. Or mix and match. Panarin’s $12m is a good chunk to spend to reshape the forward group. It’s all going to depend on the projected career path we see from Lafreniere, Chytil, Cuylle, Perreault, Othmann, etc.

[Sharpshooter]

4 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

Absolutely. I think they can get away with one (will have to be Zibanejad, but at least his contract is manageable).

 

We don’t know if Drury will have to invest Panarin’s cap in another quality skill player or maybe find that Ryan O’Reilly in his prime type. Or mix and match. Panarin’s $12m is a good chunk to spend to reshape the forward group. It’s all going to depend on the projected career path we see from Lafreniere, Chytil, Cuylle, Perreault, Othmann, etc.

Yeah, and if Mika is not that great anymore late in his contract, he could be a buyout candidate in 2028 or something, depending. lol

[RJWantsTheCup]

Wonder what they can get for Lindgren at the deadline this year?

[BrooksBurner]

1 hour ago, Sharpshooter said:

Yeah, and if Mika is not that great anymore late in his contract, he could be a buyout candidate in 2028 or something, depending. lol

His contract is buyout proof be ause of the structure (like 90% signing bonuses every year and buyout cap savings are based off of non-signing bonus money only - good job Dru!). This is something they absolutely cannot do on Shesterkin’s contract.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BrooksBurner said:

His contract is buyout proof be ause of the structure (like 90% signing bonuses every year and buyout cap savings are based off of non-signing bonus money only - good job Dru!). This is something they absolutely cannot do on Shesterkin’s contract.

 

They absolutely will.

[Phil]

 

[phillyb]

[BrooksBurner]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

They absolutely will.

 

[Albatrosss]

you sign Shesty to $12M and immediately he's going to suck ala Zibby.  I'm not sure if the Rangers are either unlucky or just stupid when it comes to big contracts.  

[Albatrosss]

3 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

Yeah, and if Mika is not that great anymore late in his contract, he could be a buyout candidate in 2028 or something, depending. lol

Do we have to wait that long to get rid of MIka?

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

I want to, but absolutely nothing about this process gives me an ounce of hope. They're going to bend over backwards to keep a 30+ goalie who gets hurt every year, who will likely keep getting hurt, who's likely to drop off significantly relative to his cap hit before the halfway mark of his new deal, and who will be both buyout- (all signing bonuses, or HEAVILY front-loaded with them — $1M base + bonuses is my guess) and trade-proof (full NMC that probably becomes like an 18-team NTC in the last year). Bookmark this. When your boy signs, we can come back and compare.

[Ozzy]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I want to, but absolutely nothing about this process gives me an ounce of hope. They're going to bend over backwards to keep a 30+ goalie who gets hurt every year, who will likely keep getting hurt, who's likely to drop off significantly relative to his cap hit before the halfway mark of his new deal, and who will be both buyout- (all signing bonuses, or HEAVILY front-loaded with them — $1M base + bonuses is my guess) and trade-proof (full NMC that probably becomes like an 18-team NTC in the last year). Bookmark this. When your boy signs, we can come back and compare.

 

Put me on this list, Boss!  I see the same things as you do here! 

 

We're gonna hate this deal the second it's "spawned".  I'm dreading coming to the site and seeing that post "Shesterkin signs for record breaking deal".

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Put me on this list, Boss!  I see the same things as you do here! 

 

We're gonna hate this deal the second it's "spawned".  I'm dreading coming to the site and seeing that post "Shesterkin signs for record breaking deal".

 

It isn't even signed yet and I already pre-hate it.

[Albatrosss]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

I want to, but absolutely nothing about this process gives me an ounce of hope. They're going to bend over backwards to keep a 30+ goalie who gets hurt every year, who will likely keep getting hurt, who's likely to drop off significantly relative to his cap hit before the halfway mark of his new deal, and who will be both buyout- (all signing bonuses, or HEAVILY front-loaded with them — $1M base + bonuses is my guess) and trade-proof (full NMC that probably becomes like an 18-team NTC in the last year). Bookmark this. When your boy signs, we can come back and compare.

You're saying he gets hurt like he's Chytil or something.  All players get hurt.  

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Albatrosss said:

You're saying he gets hurt like he's Chytil or something.  All players get hurt.  

 

Yeah, kinda matters just a bit more when it's your — checks notes — starting goalie, who you are preparing to make the highest paid player on the entire roster and the highest paid goalie in the entire league.

 

Pretty sure that player matters a helluva lot more than the teams' third-line center who they — checks notes again — won the Presidents Trophy without for basically all of last season.

[BrooksBurner]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

 

I want to, but absolutely nothing about this process gives me an ounce of hope. They're going to bend over backwards to keep a 30+ goalie who gets hurt every year, who will likely keep getting hurt, who's likely to drop off significantly relative to his cap hit before the halfway mark of his new deal, and who will be both buyout- (all signing bonuses, or HEAVILY front-loaded with them — $1M base + bonuses is my guess) and trade-proof (full NMC that probably becomes like an 18-team NTC in the last year). Bookmark this. When your boy signs, we can come back and compare.

 

He has started over 50 games 3 years in a row and is 6th in total games played amongst goalies in that span. The injury concerns were more isolated to earlier in his career. If he gets hurt, it's because players sometimes get hurt. Not because of some propensity of his to be shelved for months at a time.

 

Yeah you're going to get hosed on NMC for the full thing. That's non-negotiable as it should be for a player of his caliber. I'm not as resigned to what the salary structure would look like in that it has to be heavy signing bonuses. I don't think it has to be.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said:

 

He has started over 50 games 3 years in a row and is 6th in total games played amongst goalies in that span. The injury concerns were more isolated to earlier in his career. If he gets hurt, it's because players sometimes get hurt. Not because of some propensity of his to be shelved for months at a time.

 

Yeah you're going to get hosed on NMC for the full thing. That's non-negotiable as it should be for a player of his caliber. I'm not as resigned to what the salary structure would look like in that it has to be heavy signing bonuses. I don't think it has to be.

 

That's fine. If you want it in a hierarchy, the injury concern is the least of mine.

 

In order:

1. Cap hit. Actual number. Relative to cap, even a rising one, is just egregious for a goalie.
2. Term. He's going to be 30 when this even begins. The Athletic chart from earlier in this thread suggests it's realistic to expect a dramatic drop off (especially relative to a double digit cap hit) at age 34 — precisely halfway through the deal.
3. Trade protection. He's getting a full ride, pretty much guaranteed. Name me a premiere free agent in the last decade who hasn't. At best I see this as like a full NMC for the first six or seven years, and then the last year will have some barely applicable clause shift (like 18 or 20 team no-trade list).
4. Structure. I'd be fucking floored if he didn't front load the shit out of this deal to make it buyout-proof. Just like the New Muskoka Group did with Toronto. Million dollar base salary, massive signing bonus figures. As a natural extension, this will add another trade-proof layer, because few teams will be willing to spend this way on a single player.
5. Injury. He's maybe not as injury-prone as I made it out to seem, but the injury concern is a major one, because unlikely any other skater role, if your starting goalie goes down, it can completely sink your season. When that same goalie makes the most money on your entire roster, this is just untenable, because it'll make securing any kind of reliable replacement near impossible.

[Scott]

The whole situation is frightening.  The team defense in their own zone is still a crap show with both the D unit and the forwards often standing around out of position or making a careless play turning the puck over which leads to  high-grade chances.  I  think an average goalie turns them into a also-ran. Especially looking shortly down the road and Panarin's deal expiring. I don't see anybody knocking down the door to make up for those two loses. Yeah cap space, we did so well all those years when there was no cap.

[Pete]

2 hours ago, Scott said:

The whole situation is frightening.  The team defense in their own zone is still a crap show with both the D unit and the forwards often standing around out of position or making a careless play turning the puck over which leads to  high-grade chances.  I  think an average goalie turns them into a also-ran. Especially looking shortly down the road and Panarin's deal expiring. I don't see anybody knocking down the door to make up for those two loses. Yeah cap space, we did so well all those years when there was no cap.

 

I'm already resigned to the idea that we'll get to see some great goaltending and hopefully some young talent to look forward to like Perrault joining Lafreniere, and hopefully not trying to trap their way into the playoffs, because that will be boring. 

 

I don't think they're going to win a lot, but at least they could be fun to watch. 

[Albatrosss]

18 hours ago, Scott said:

The whole situation is frightening.  The team defense in their own zone is still a crap show with both the D unit and the forwards often standing around out of position or making a careless play turning the puck over which leads to  high-grade chances.  I  think an average goalie turns them into a also-ran. Especially looking shortly down the road and Panarin's deal expiring. I don't see anybody knocking down the door to make up for those two loses. Yeah cap space, we did so well all those years when there was no cap.

Panarin was a UFA, so I'm sure there will be another UFA available.  maybe not Panarin's caliber, maybe better.  Maybe Rempe will score 40