Phil Posted October 1 Author Share Posted October 1 I get that, but the NHL is a unique entity in this because they operate with a hard cap. As far as I understand it, they're the only league that does, so those values simply have to be reasonable. I don't begrudge Swayman (or Shesterkin) for looking to maximize their earnings. But I do begrudge any player at any time who seeks to "reset the market" on their position by literally millions more than their comparable peers, many of whom signed deals like a fucking month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 (edited) 10 hours ago, Pete said: Selective quoting doesn't fly in this scenario, because the question "Which would fans prefer" needs to include " It's about what resetting the goalie market means. At any rate the Oilers...that's one team. Knights, Avalanche, St. Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh,.Chicago...those teams didn't overpay or have the best goalie in the league and they won. Too many people hold up Florida is some kind of model when they are an outlier. I mean the games they lost in the finals were a combined score of 18-6. Bob wasn't the difference maker. How many high paid elite goalies are there? There are 5 goalies over 6.5 million. Two of the goalies (Hellebuyck, Sorokin) are in the 8s and are just starting their contracts so we don't know yet. The other 3, Price 10.5 Bob 10 Vasi 9.5 have all been to the finals. Two have a Cup win. It really doesn't matter if people want to write them off as anomalies. The data is very limited because there are so few high paid goalies to begin with, but the results actually seem good relative to how many there are. For every example you can list, or paint as an anomaly, there's tens or hundreds more examples of high paid forwards not winning. 5 goalies over 6.5 million. 111 skaters over 6.5 million. It's all relative. Edited October 1 by BrooksBurner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 1 Author Share Posted October 1 9 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said: How many high paid elite goalies are there? There are 5 goalies over 6.5 million. Two of the goalies (Hellebuyck, Sorokin) are in the 8s and are just starting their contracts so we don't know yet. The other 3, Price 10.5 Bob 10 Vasi 9.5 have all been to the finals. Two have a Cup win. It really doesn't matter if people want to write them off as anomalies. The data is very limited because there are so few high paid goalies to begin with, but the results actually seem good relative to how many there are. For every example you can list, or paint as an anomaly, there's tens or hundreds more examples of high paid forwards not winning. 5 goalies over 6.5 million. 111 skaters over 6.5 million. It's all relative. The difference you're missing here is that the floor has raised tremendously. You don't need to be asking how many elite goalies there are, but how many truly awful starters are even left. One? Maybe two? The "mid" goalies in this league have shown that non-elite status is not a barrier to success. Not even close. In fact, the math heavily skews toward more teams winning without elite goaltending than with it, though I admit, this depends on your subjective definition of who is or isn't elite. My categories, for a point of reference (not ranked, just grouped): Elite: Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Saros. Great: Demko, Swayman, Bobrovsky, Ullmark, Oettinger, Markstrom Reliable: Skinner, Woll, Hill, Andersen, Ingram, Luukkonen, Binnington, Jarry, Kochetkov Then everyone else. So, basically, like 20/32 goalies are good, and the overwhelming majority of them make like $7 million~ against the cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 49 minutes ago, Phil said: The difference you're missing here is that the floor has raised tremendously. You don't need to be asking how many elite goalies there are, but how many truly awful starters are even left. One? Maybe two? The "mid" goalies in this league have shown that non-elite status is not a barrier to success. Not even close. In fact, the math heavily skews toward more teams winning without elite goaltending than with it, though I admit, this depends on your subjective definition of who is or isn't elite. My categories, for a point of reference (not ranked, just grouped): Elite: Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Saros. Great: Demko, Swayman, Bobrovsky, Ullmark, Oettinger, Markstrom Reliable: Skinner, Woll, Hill, Andersen, Ingram, Luukkonen, Binnington, Jarry, Kochetkov Then everyone else. So, basically, like 20/32 goalies are good, and the overwhelming majority of them make like $7 million~ against the cap. The argument isn’t if having a non-elite goalie is a barrier to success. That’s not one I would contest because of course it’s not. The argument is if a high cap elite goalie is a barrier. I think the argument is largely inconclusive, and the math actually seems to suggest high paid goalies are winning at a rate higher than expected for how very few there are. The cap is going to be $92.5 million next season. You’re trying to convince me that $80.5 million spent on the rest of the roster versus ~$84-86 million is a death knell of a difference. I think the core reason for feeling this way is that we have experienced a high paid goalie in conjunction with mismanagement of the rest of the cap, that we are trained to say “if only the goalie didn’t cost X we could work around our other 4 mistakes on the roster”. My counter would be they just need to do better with the other 88% of the cap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 (edited) 2 hours ago, BrooksBurner said: How many high paid elite goalies are there? There are 5 goalies over 6.5 million. Two of the goalies (Hellebuyck, Sorokin) are in the 8s and are just starting their contracts so we don't know yet. The other 3, Price 10.5 Bob 10 Vasi 9.5 have all been to the finals. Two have a Cup win. It really doesn't matter if people want to write them off as anomalies. The data is very limited because there are so few high paid goalies to begin with, but the results actually seem good relative to how many there are. For every example you can list, or paint as an anomaly, there's tens or hundreds more examples of high paid forwards not winning. 5 goalies over 6.5 million. 111 skaters over 6.5 million. It's all relative. Vasi went to finals when Kuch was on LTIR. Bobrovsky been addressed. Repeating it over and over doesn't make the Grand Canyon sized caveats any smaller. Maybe ask yourself why there are so few highly paid goalies? Because there aren't many GMs willing to invest in that position, because as we've seen goalies like Aiden Hill, Darcy Keumper, Corey Crawford, Antii Niemi, Matt Murray, all have Stanley Cups. Not only can you win a cup with an average goalie, but the gap between very good and elite is smaller than ever. Igor is just not worth 30% More than the next best guy. Edited October 1 by Pete 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsm7302 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 12 hours ago, Pete said: Vasi went to finals when Kuch was on LTIR. Bobrovsky been addressed. Repeating it over and over doesn't make the Grand Canyon sized caveats any smaller. Maybe ask yourself why there are so few highly paid goalies? Because there aren't many GMs willing to invest in that position, because as we've seen goalies like Aiden Hill, Darcy Keumper, Corey Crawford, Antii Niemi, Matt Murray, all have Stanley Cups. Not only can you win a cup with an average goalie, but the gap between very good and elite is smaller than ever. Igor is just not worth 30% More than the next best guy. He isn't even 30% better. I think we view Shesterkin through blue glasses. Yea he is really good but I don't think he is the best in the game. I think through the cap going up and costs rising, you can argue he should be in the same camp as the highest paid but in no way is there a reason to reset the market. Id rather see him hit free agency than overpay this primadonna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 (edited) 14 hours ago, Pete said: Maybe ask yourself why there are so few highly paid goalies? Because there aren't many GMs willing to invest in that position, because as we've seen goalies like Aiden Hill, Darcy Keumper, Corey Crawford, Antii Niemi, Matt Murray, all have Stanley Cups. There's few goalies who are consistently elite year over year and worth a premium. Quote Igor is just not worth 30% More than the next best guy. He's the only reason they have been advancing in the playoffs. Edit: Sort by GSAA. Links not keeping the sort on. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20242025&stype=3&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=600&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20212022&stype=3&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=600&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL When the lights are brightest, he's ultra elite. He's worth it. They just need to find a way for their other big cap purchases to show up when the lights are brightest. They've got about $28 million invested in three players who do not. Edited October 2 by BrooksBurner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 1 minute ago, BrooksBurner said: There's few goalies who are consistently elite year over year and worth a premium. You don't need elite goaltending to win a cup. Quote He's the only reason they have been advancing in the playoffs. https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20242025&stype=3&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=600&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20192020&thruseason=20212022&stype=3&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=g&rate=n&team=ALL&pos=S&loc=B&toi=600&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL When the lights are brightest, he's ultra elite. He's worth it. They just need to find a way for their other big cap purchases to show up when the lights are brightest. They've got about $28 million invested in three players who do not. Well he's not the only reason, because he can't score goals. We've already seen that letting in 1 goal a game in the postseason is cool but worthless if you can't score 2 yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 5 minutes ago, Pete said: You don't need elite goaltending to win a cup. Well he's not the only reason, because he can't score goals. We've already seen that letting in 1 goal a game in the postseason is cool but worthless if you can't score 2 yourself. I didn't say you did. That's not the argument. You don't need McDavid to win the Cup, but it wouldn't stop you from signing him would it? I think it has more to do with $20 million, or 20-25% of the rest of the cap, invested in Panarin and Zibanejad not scoring when it matters. Shesterkin largely turns into the best goalie on the planet. You don't need to galaxy brain this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 5 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said: I didn't say you did. That's not the argument. You don't need McDavid to win the Cup, but it wouldn't stop you from signing him would it? I think it has more to do with $20 million, or 20-25% of the rest of the cap, invested in Panarin and Zibanejad not scoring when it matters. Shesterkin largely turns into the best goalie on the planet. You don't need to galaxy brain this. Centers ≠ Goalies, that's the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 2 Author Share Posted October 2 15 hours ago, Pete said: Vasi went to finals when Kuch was on LTIR. Bobrovsky been addressed. Repeating it over and over doesn't make the Grand Canyon sized caveats any smaller. Maybe ask yourself why there are so few highly paid goalies? Because there aren't many GMs willing to invest in that position, because as we've seen goalies like Aiden Hill, Darcy Keumper, Corey Crawford, Antii Niemi, Matt Murray, all have Stanley Cups. Not only can you win a cup with an average goalie, but the gap between very good and elite is smaller than ever. Igor is just not worth 30% More than the next best guy. Or even the fourth, or sixth, or eighth next best guy. The results are negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 47 minutes ago, Phil said: Or even the fourth, or sixth, or eighth next best guy. The results are negligible. Right. Like I keep saying... You can't compare goaltending to position players. You don't need to spend a lot to get a top goalie, and you don't need elite to win. Spend on elite elsewhere in your lineup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 I thought Trouba's contract was bad!! Shesterkin's deal will make Trouba's look like a fire sale! The other thing that is that I feel like we've seen the best of Igor already. He's not going to get any better in my opinion. What the old addage? Sell High????? Yeah that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 I know the contract will hurt,but he is the most valuable player five on five the rangers have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 9 minutes ago, lefty9 said: I know the contract will hurt,but he is the most valuable player five on five the rangers have That makes no sense. "The Rangers don't score enough 5v5, so what we should do is handicap our ability to address that by making a guy who can't score goals the highest paid player on the team, even though we already saw that it wasn't good enough 3 months ago." Brilliant! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 1 minute ago, Pete said: That makes no sense. "The Rangers don't score enough 5v5, so what we should do is handicap our ability to address that by making a guy who can't score goals the highest paid player on the team, even though we already saw that it wasn't good enough 3 months ago." Brilliant! Yea we lost because Igor didn't score goals core goals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 We lost because the rangers sucked on5x5 ,and he kept us in the game by playing brilliantly in goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 Just now, lefty9 said: Yea we lost because Igor didn't score goals Is that what I said? Let me paste it again for you "making a guy who can't score goals the highest paid player on the team". Where does that say we lost because Igor can't score goals? Stop being ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 Just now, lefty9 said: We lost because the rangers sucked on5x5 And how is that addressed when you're paying a goalie ~$13M? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 didn't say I want to pay a goalie a trillion dollars ,you saying it . Was just saying he is important to the ranger team because of the rangers being weak 5x 5 like Lundy was . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 (edited) The Rangers 5v5 issue is not fixed by throwing more money at it. $5 million saved by switching from Igor to a 2nd rate goalie would not make a lick of difference other than allowing significantly more goals. $28 million in Panarin, Zibanejad, and Trouba, and they all suck in the playoffs, and they all suck at rallying the team to play the right way at 5v5. It's not rocket science here. Edited October 2 by BrooksBurner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 If Skinner can make it to the 7th game of a Cup final..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooksBurner Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 1 minute ago, Ozzy said: If Skinner can make it to the 7th game of a Cup final..... And the Rangers may have McDavid and Draisaitl some day, when they're 37 on a retirement contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty9 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 But we dont have the studs like Edmonton does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 2 minutes ago, BrooksBurner said: And the Rangers may have McDavid and Draisaitl some day, when they're 37 on a retirement contract. Isn't that always the plan? LOL I still think we can use Jagr....retired or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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